Which is what I said over on PH. Discussed with Nik and it was something outside of IM control. Processes of the Custodians I think, maybe it can be fixed now

@dingg said in Micron report and general tech news: Thanks Adam Wondered why klac was looking a bit perky on the premarket. As are some others, could be a bit of a good day if it carries through to the close Ah well, another kick in the balls, smci potential dodgy dealings pulling the rug on semis, this time next year Rodney

@slatermethuen I'll let the Dev team know and we will take a look at MoneyHub Given the work we have the go I would think it will be a new year task, but we will keep it on the radar Nik

From JP Morgan: AMZN has grown its Advertising Services revenue from ~$13B in 2019 to ~$56B in 2024, implying a +39% CAGR. The success of Amazon’s Advertising Services business highlights key advantages AMZN & retailers have over GOOGL & META. According to WSJ, AMZN has deployed more than one million robots in facilities, which is the most it has ever had and near the count of human workers at the facilities.

The previously posted tables containing predicted min Blackwell (packaged) chips has proven very accurate in fact we also said TSMC would likely find additional capacity(and apparently they have). And from that we forecast the revenue growth, knowing what they sell these chips for. The start of Blackwell was clunky due to the transition from Hopper because Hopper was packaged on the 'S' line and Blackwell on the 'L' line and there were some heating issues which is no surprise because it was all very new. We predicted about $10 billion Q o Q growth vs $4-5B during Hoppers reign. We are now at this point today. Blackwell is bug free and at ramping as fast as CoWoS will allow. This is the old schedule by quarter in 000's: [image: 1748798151117-screenshot-2025-06-01-at-18.14.59.png] . TSMC have indicated circa 500k chips per month and growing from June. They are all sold(5-10X). Losing China completely, and it wont be but let's just ignore it all together. All that has happened is we take the hit and next quarter they achieve $47B and the next $57, $67, $77 and so on. The only caveat is that when Rubin arrives at year end, Dec/Jan they will add further revenue to each quarter simply due to the ASP of Rubin being higher-so id expect $12-$13B q o q increases. Next year automotive will be meaningful as all car makers equip their cars with ADAS and robotics/omniverse will start adding revenues-the q o q rhythm will grow again. But this is exactly how I see their revenue grow over time. A very long time and yes I expect 100B+ per quarter some time at the end of next year or Q1 the following. And to anyone who thinks they will have transition issues again, well, Rubin and Rubin Ultra are all packaged on the same line so the transition will be seamless . It is not until 2027 that packaging will move to a new process called Sow-X which is when the real party starts. We are looking at racks 40X more powerful than today's. Racks containing 500 chips and consuming 1 megawatt each and could cost $20M or more. This is the roadmap from 2027 to 29. The experts have been predicting a plateau in revenue for over a year now-remember Cathy Wood and the 'Dean of Valuation'. They were all wrong and continue to be so. Cisco-look at Cisco. A very scientific analogy. Exciting times ahead imo.

It's a bit more nuanced than that, G. And glad you did something nice with your gains, that's what it's all about, benefiting through investment. People will always take profit into new highs, we've discussed the psychology What are 'expectations'? You could say even higher than what was delivered so is it the first point or the second? For example MSFT X, I posted those numbers(official market expectations) and they comfortably beat, all the reporting entities did. However different reactions. You might also have noticed after hours RED/GREEN/RED(same company) and then at the open big Green. Derivatives in play again. You will often hear the cliche 'it's priced in'. I'm not a fan of the catchphrase. It's largely nonsense. The PH resident IFA will say 'you don't have an edge against the pro' just word-salad. You don't need an edge, just don't chase meme stocks, chase quality and have some patience. That is why we simply stay the course. A drop yesterday and looks like(given 300+ futures) gains today.

Hi Siri It would be the 25/26 year now, if the birth is really close to tax year end just drop me a mail and I'll get the contribution set up. Cheers Nik

@SiriAlexaAl Yep, that's what's happened.

A shame you can’t ’back-date’ your ISA contributions, but at least a reminder to fill them now & moving forwards

Thanks Nik and of course I take on board your comments on Protection. In normal circumstances that would be the sensible approach. A Chancellor that has no qualms about shafting a Pensioner on £13k pa will not think twice about targeting people with larger pension pots.

Much better now thanks

@uk66fastback If you can send me a message, nik.burrows@cobensdirect.co.uk i will take a look for you Cheers Nik

Thanks Adam.

Thanks for the confirmation. It works just as I thought. Better to ask to confirm than just assume I'm correct. A small mistake can make a big difference.

We will publish something at the year end, given we are so close now. The file Nik refers to is model performance which will vary from actual portfolio performance because it is calculated month to month based on the model weights whereas in reality the daily real performance uses actual moving weights.. In a rising market it will understate the growth by 1-3%. Performance from the top is Tech, Lifestyle Growth, IM 100, Equity. The same applies to FX, month to month is not the same as daily because again, the compounding effect can either amplify or offset the overall monthly growth rate depending on the direction and magnitude on a daily basis. You also have what is called the 'Base Effect' where daily fx moves are relative to the prior day whilst monthly moves compare longer periods. When I state returns, they are actual portfolio returns. The Fact sheets use a point to point monthly performance. Hope that makes sense . The fact sheets(to November) are here near the bottom of the page https://www.cobensdirect.co.uk/literature-library

Thanks for the replies and sorry I missed your call earlier Adam. I'll give you a bell in the morning. Cheers all, have a good evening.

Yep....me , just landed and invested in time for the usual Friday drop ( Quick edit: as thought complete 720 RAS added 31July wiped out 1 August . Talk about Tariffs and nuclear war sure helps )

I thought it would be that, but it was worth asking, just in case. Many Thanks

@VvrooomM said in To use an IFA or not use an IFA: Age 52.5, possibly planning to retire in the next couple of years. Can’t begin drawdown until 55 obviously but have some savings to bridge the gap. Do I need an IFA though, would it be wise/prudent to have one? Got my fingers burnt with the last one that was absolutely useless. I have my person split between IM/CD and ii, my investments are self chosen with my ongoing costs being circa 0.82% with IM/CD and 0.22% with ii per annum. Thanks for the thoughts in advance. Hi VvrooomM If you want to look at guidance first drop me a message and we can set a call/meeting up. We can then chat through what you are looking to do, what things you may need to consider and the options available. If you feel that you have enough information and understanding after that to make your own decisions and plans then you may decide that you don't need advice If you're still not sure after that you can either then take some advice from us or find another IFA. I would hope that at that point, if feel you need advice you will know what you are looking for from an adviser. Cheers Nik

Do not fancy having a robot operating on me, might cut off the wrong bits!