Investments and Portfolios

I expect Jensen to come out swinging during their next earnings call, scheduled for Web Feb 25 (3 weeks tomorrow). He is very conscious of the stock price action or inaction and I'm confident he will address that with openness, honesty and integrity. I expect some very big numbers and his comments will focus on what they are seeing (insatiable demand) plus China is a new addition. The market is very fickle but very quick to change sentiment and what you have seen is a flat line range bound scenario where money gets moved into other plays, always chasing that quick buck. When Nvidia moves it does so very quickly and this quarter+guide is the perfect time imo. Blackwell is mature, Hopper is still in demand and Rubin (Vera Rubin) is in full production(scaling). Four months ago Jensen said they had $500B in orders 'for the next 18 months'. He's talking about data centre not the entire business. I wouldn't be surprised if he raises this number as my numbers suggest closer to 700B total over the next 18 months. This reported Q(Q4), I think they'll earn very close to $40B net. I can't see why they won't add in some China H200(Q1 guide), how much is unknown. They have orders for 10-12B min but will they ship it all in Q1. They have the stock. No one knows. They have plenty of time (Feb-April). Conservatively I think they will manage the usual +$10B expansion QoQ and +$XB from china, i.e Actual Q4+$10+X. And then guide back $5B. **I think the guide will be somewhere in the range $75B+ range leaving scope to beat this materially (80s). I'd be surprised if they left China out because they aren't reporting for another 3 weeks. We have to bear in mind they are very conservative and don't ever want to bank on something and end up missing. I believe they could generate $80+B next Q but you won't ever see a guide that high-too risky. I also think they will earn close to $45B next quarter. Whilst China demand is massive, initial orders will trickle in 2-3B Q1 and scale from there.

India's deal with the US [image: 1770107282989-screenshot-2026-02-03-at-08.27.29.png]

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Apple results-and I have to say they really surprised me. Very strong. Take a moment to think about these numbers. Just under 144B $85B just iPhones segment $30B in services which is almost pure profit $42B tax paid profit deep double digit growth and guiding for continued strength It will take NVDA next Q to beat this sort of earnings with GOOG hot on their heels no doubt. [image: 1769870213092-screenshot-2026-01-31-at-14.34.56.png] [image: 1769870225272-screenshot-2026-01-31-at-14.35.08.png] [image: 1769870230283-screenshot-2026-01-31-at-14.35.48.png]

KLA delivered above expectations The result overall was solid, fundamentally — AI‑driven semiconductor tool demand continues. Analysts have been positive and even raising targets. KLA’s share price dropped (~7–8% in extended trading) despite that beat/inline result. The stock had already run so far, so fast, that nothing they reported was going to be good enough. This echoes a classic “sell the news” dynamic: The stock was frothy heading into earnings — up big recently (nearly +40% in the last month alone and 130% 1 yr! That run priced in very high expectations for the print. Net it only moved the price down to what it was on Monday!

Developing story…. NVDA: Mercedes, Nvidia, and Uber to partner on large-scale commercial robotaxi deployment. interesting Also Amazon in talks to invest 50 billion in openai

[image: 1769673527882-screenshot-2026-01-29-at-07.57.36.png] Ad impressions +12% YoY; average price per ad +9% YoY. Capital expenditures: $72.22 billion. The net income dip was partly due to higher income tax provisions. Guidance for Q1 2026: Revenue $53.5–$56.5 billion. Full-year 2026: Expenses $162–$169 billion; capex $115–$135 billion (heavy AI infrastructure focus).Commentary Highlights from Mark Zuckerberg- Zuckerberg focused on strong 2025 performance and accelerating AI in 2026:Overall Performance: "We had strong business performance in 2025. I'm looking forward to advancing personal superintelligence for people around the world in 2026." He noted ending 2025 with over 3.5 billion daily users across apps (more than 2 billion each on Facebook and WhatsApp; nearly that on Instagram), driven by record holiday demand and AI performance gains. AI Acceleration: Described 2026 as a year of "major AI acceleration." In 2025, Meta rebuilt AI foundations; now shipping new models and products. First models expected to be good, with rapid improvement throughout the year. Vision: "building personal superintelligence" — AI that understands users' personal context (history, interests, content, relationships) for uniquely personalised experiences. Agents are starting to work effectively, unlocking new products and transforming work. Integration and Future: Merging LLMs with recommendation systems for Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and ads. Current systems are "primitive" compared to future potential. Excited about upcoming launches but limited details (only six months into rebuild). AI as "the next big media format," evolving feeds to more immersive/interactive (video as stepping stone). Monetisation and Investments: Opportunities for Meta AI via subscriptions and advertising. Justified aggressive spending (capex up to $135 billion in 2026) to catch up in leading AI models after trailing in 2025. Focus: improving core products, accelerating business via AI, exploring new opportunities like Meta AI monetisation. VR/Horizon Worlds investments will pair with AI advances.

A very strong MSFT result- the softness AH is yet again concern over AI spending-odd given the Nr's are great. Microsoft reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended 31 December 2025) on 28 January 2026, after market close. The company delivered strong top- and bottom-line growth, driven primarily by its cloud and AI businesses, beating analyst expectations across key metrics. However, shares dropped around 6-7% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor concerns over escalating capital expenditure (capex), slightly moderating cloud growth rates, and margin pressures from AI investments.Key Financial Metrics with ComparativesHere is a table summarising the main figures, including year-over-year (YoY) changes, constant currency (CC) adjustments, and comparisons to analyst consensus estimates.Metric Key Financial Metrics Revenue: $81.3 billion (+17% YoY, +15% constant currency) Operating Income: $38.3 billion (+21% YoY, +19% constant currency) Net Income (GAAP): $38.5 billion (+60% YoY) Net Income (Non-GAAP): $30.9 billion (+23% YoY, +21% constant currency) EPS (GAAP): $5.16 (+60% YoY) EPS (Non-GAAP): $4.14 (+24% YoY, +21% constant currency) Microsoft Cloud Revenue: $51.5 billion (+26% YoY, +24% constant currency) — first time over $50 billion Capex: $37.5 billion (+66% YoY) Shareholder Returns: $12.7 billion (+32% YoY) Segment RevenueProductivity and Business Processes: $34.1 billion (+16% YoY, +14% constant currency) Intelligent Cloud: $32.9 billion (+29% YoY, +28% constant currency)Azure and other cloud services: +39% YoY (+38% constant currency) More Personal Computing: $14.3 billion (-3% YoY) Other HighlightsCommercial Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO): $625 billion (up significantly YoY) Q3 FY2026 Guidance: Revenue $80.65–81.75 billion (15–17% growth); Azure growth 37–38% constant currency Segment BreakdownProductivity and Business Processes: $34.1 billion revenue (+16% YoY, +14% CC). Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud +17%, Consumer +29%, Dynamics 365 +19%, LinkedIn +11%. Solid demand for AI-integrated tools like Copilot. Intelligent Cloud: $32.9 billion revenue (+29% YoY, +28% CC). Azure and other cloud services +39% (+38% CC), beating estimates. Commercial remaining performance obligation surged to $625 billion (up massively), indicating huge future backlog. This segment was the standout, fuelled by AI demand. More Personal Computing: Revenue declined, dragged by Gaming (Xbox content/services down, hardware weakness) and other areas, though Windows OEM and search advertising showed some resilience. Guidance and OutlookQ3 FY2026 revenue: $80.65-81.75 billion (midpoint $81.2 billion, in line with estimates). Azure growth: 37-38% (CC), slightly below Q2's 39% and some higher expectations. Overall revenue growth guided at 15-17%. No major changes to full-year outlook, but continued emphasis on heavy AI investments. CFO Amy Hood noted capex will stay elevated to meet demand. Main Points and CommentaryMicrosoft absolutely blew it away on the headline numbers—consistent beats on revenue and EPS, with five straight quarters of surprises now. Azure's 39% growth highlights leadership in the AI race, cloud revenue crossed $50 billion for the first time, and metrics like the surging performance obligations signal explosive long-term potential. **CEO Satya Nadella stressed accelerating AI adoption, with strong uptake in Copilot tools.**That said, the after-hours drop (to around $430-450 range from a close near $480) —it's a market reaction to near-term pressures in an already high-valuation AI story. Key triggers:Ballooning Capex: $37.5 billion (well above estimates) raises fears of an "AI tax" where infrastructure spending (data centres, GPUs) outpaces near-term monetisation. Investors question ROI timelines, especially with potential for $100 billion+ annual spend. Cloud Growth: Azure's 39% was strong but a slight slowdown from prior acceleration, and Q3 guidance of 37-38% came in light for some. Capacity constraints were acknowledged as persisting. Margin and Segment Weakness: Lighter margin outlook due to AI costs, plus drags from gaming and personal computing, shifted focus to risks over beats. High Expectations: With the stock at a premium valuation, any hint of "not perfect" sparks sell-offs amid broader AI hype cooling. Overall, this looks like a classic overreaction and potential buy-the-dip—fundamentals are rock-solid, and AI demand isn't vanishing. Short-term volatility may linger until clearer signs of ROI from those investments emerge, but Microsoft has a history of conservative guidance proving beatable.

Alphabet shares have surged as investor confidence snaps back, driven by clear evidence that Google’s AI strategy is not only defensible, but increasingly lucrative. After months of concern that generative AI would undermine search economics, recent performance suggests the opposite is unfolding. According to market commentators including Deepwater Asset Management, Google’s core search business has exceeded expectations as AI-driven results prompt users to ask more follow-up questions rather than fewer. That behaviour matters. More queries translate into more advertising opportunities, and Google has moved quickly to place ads both below and within AI-generated responses. Independent testing cited by Deepwater indicates monetisation has improved materially over the past three months, strengthening the outlook for 2026 and beyond. The company is also pushing aggressively into what it calls agentic commerce. New features allow users to complete checkout directly inside AI Mode, supported by fresh ad formats such as Direct Offers. A partnership with Walmart signals that Google is serious about capturing transaction-level value, not just referral traffic, a shift that could meaningfully lift revenue per user over time. On the competitive front, Google’s Gemini models have gained traction at speed. Some analysts argue Gemini 3 now rivals, and in certain tasks surpasses, OpenAI’s GPT, a view that has reshaped perceptions of the AI landscape. Momentum was further boosted by reports that Apple has selected Gemini to power upcoming Siri upgrades, displacing rival models. Alphabet shares are now up roughly 80% over six months, placing the stock among the top performers in the Nasdaq 100. The rally reflects a simple recalibration: Google is no longer seen as an AI casualty, but as a credible AI winner that knows how to monetise at scale. GOOG are expected to report their Q4 and biggest ever earnings on 4 Feb, exceeding $111B revenue (Q) and over $400B annually. A formidable operator with very deep expertise and competence across all things 'tech'. It's quite incredible to think, a company of this scale still growing at high double digit rates.

Amazing! Can it continue....who knows! Out of interest, when do the formal summary sheets get updated? (The ones at https://www.intelligentmoney.com/portfolios#comp-livoaycf2)

Anyone who holds a portfolio and has questions can contact either myself and or Nik. Many have. Discussions around suitability are very individual specific due to goals, age, risk appetite and time to retirement/time to draw down.

Hi Ollie, I don't follow 'Defence' stocks generally as they rely on wars being waged. My area is growth/tech which has outperformed defence over any meaningful time frame. If you want to seek out defence funds there are a couple of global ETFs you can google.

Nice pop for vertex today Vertex’s appearance at the Citi Healthcare Conference hit the right notes for investors, and the market reaction reflects it. The company reiterated the strength of its core cystic-fibrosis portfolio, which continues to deliver dependable, expanding revenue and remains the backbone of its multi-billion-dollar quarterly performance. Management reinforced that recent growth trends are holding up well, with momentum expected to persist. A major positive was the emphasis on financial capacity. Vertex sits on roughly USD 12 billion in cash and marketable securities, giving it the freedom to progress late-stage programmes without taking on debt or issuing shares. That level of balance-sheet strength is uncommon in biotech and signals stability as well as optionality for future deals or accelerated development plans. Pipeline updates also contributed to the upbeat tone. Programmes in kidney disease, gene editing and other high-value therapeutic areas were highlighted as near- and medium-term opportunities with significant commercial potential. Analysts have already argued that Vertex may be priced below its long-term fair value, and today’s messaging essentially validated that view by showing that both innovation and execution remain firmly on track. Overall, the presentation delivered a clear story: robust revenue today, meaningful breakthroughs underway and the financial muscle to drive both without compromise.

@SiriAlexaAl Yep, that's what's happened.

@mikeiow I'm in a similar boat. Too much time on my hands and with a few pennies to spend at the bookies (I mean stock market). I used a spredsheet to come up with the chart, but couldn't produce anything other than dots on a scatter chart. There were no labels next to each dot, other than their value. I, also, couldn't produce the curves on the same chart. @Adam-Kay thanks for the steer. I'll do some googling at SD and beta.

Hi R, Yes it's a display gremlin. Ive notified admin to fix it. Ive looked at the Switch and that has been processed. Being two legs to the transaction , one out and one in the DB shows one but not the other. Regards Adam

Ok thanks.

It's a bit more nuanced than that, G. And glad you did something nice with your gains, that's what it's all about, benefiting through investment. People will always take profit into new highs, we've discussed the psychology What are 'expectations'? You could say even higher than what was delivered so is it the first point or the second? For example MSFT X, I posted those numbers(official market expectations) and they comfortably beat, all the reporting entities did. However different reactions. You might also have noticed after hours RED/GREEN/RED(same company) and then at the open big Green. Derivatives in play again. You will often hear the cliche 'it's priced in'. I'm not a fan of the catchphrase. It's largely nonsense. The PH resident IFA will say 'you don't have an edge against the pro' just word-salad. You don't need an edge, just don't chase meme stocks, chase quality and have some patience. That is why we simply stay the course. A drop yesterday and looks like(given 300+ futures) gains today.

Today Alphabet announced its quantum-computing team delivered a verifiable quantum advantage via its “Willow” chip and “Quantum Echoes” algorithm running ~13,000× faster than a classical supercomputer. This isn’t just hype — the hardware, software stack and experimental validation all align. On top of that, Alphabet remains one of the most profitable companies in the world: it reported a net income in excess of US$100 billion in its latest full year. In the battleground of mega-cap tech, alphabets like Nvidia Corporation, Microsoft Corporation and Apple Inc. grab the headlines — but Alphabet quietly leads in profit, while trading at a discount to them. Why that matters: It shows Alphabet is not just a search and ads company — it’s positioning for the next frontier of computing (quantum, AI infrastructure, cloud). It gives it a solid financial base: when profit margins are strong and cash flows healthy, you have the flexibility to experiment and pivot. OTHER BETS It may mean the market is under-estimating Alphabet’s upside: if these emerging bets pay off, the valuation gap could shrink. Yes, hurdles remain (commercialising quantum, cloud dominance, regulatory headwinds), but dismissing Alphabet now would overlook its smart strategy and deep pockets.

Thanks Mike. Hi Eldar, The Money Markets portfolio is a very low-risk investment designed to act much like cash. It invests mainly in short-dated, high-quality instruments such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit and commercial paper, aiming to preserve capital and provide a steady return. The fund closely tracks short-term interest rates, so its yield moves in line with the Bank of England base rate. The price is usually very stable, and you can normally access your money within 3 working days via your investment platform. It’s often used as a cash-like holding for short-term funds or by investors waiting to reinvest. It offers a competitive yield compared with many savings accounts(net 3.7% after fees), currently. In practice, it behaves much like cash, but sits within an investment account rather than a bank.