Investments and Portfolios

some monthly memory spot price info: [image: 1761398953755-screenshot-2025-10-25-at-14.28.36.png] Critical weekly and monthly price changes AI HBM [image: 1761399574367-screenshot-2025-10-25-at-14.39.07.png] Setting up another beat and raise.

Today Alphabet announced its quantum-computing team delivered a verifiable quantum advantage via its “Willow” chip and “Quantum Echoes” algorithm running ~13,000× faster than a classical supercomputer. This isn’t just hype — the hardware, software stack and experimental validation all align. On top of that, Alphabet remains one of the most profitable companies in the world: it reported a net income in excess of US$100 billion in its latest full year. In the battleground of mega-cap tech, alphabets like Nvidia Corporation, Microsoft Corporation and Apple Inc. grab the headlines — but Alphabet quietly leads in profit, while trading at a discount to them. Why that matters: It shows Alphabet is not just a search and ads company — it’s positioning for the next frontier of computing (quantum, AI infrastructure, cloud). It gives it a solid financial base: when profit margins are strong and cash flows healthy, you have the flexibility to experiment and pivot. OTHER BETS It may mean the market is under-estimating Alphabet’s upside: if these emerging bets pay off, the valuation gap could shrink. Yes, hurdles remain (commercialising quantum, cloud dominance, regulatory headwinds), but dismissing Alphabet now would overlook its smart strategy and deep pockets.

Work on that one Cappo.... it's almost funny!

Cheers Ronski That's saved taxing what little of the grey matter I have left

Meta, Blue Owl to Finalise Record $30 Billion Private Financing Deal for Louisiana AI Data Centre Meta is set to complete an approximately $30 billion private capital financing deal — the largest of its kind on record — to fund Meta’s advanced AI data infrastructure project in Louisiana, Bloomberg News reported. Meta and alternative asset manager Blue Owl Capital will share ownership of the Hyperion data centre site in Richland Parish, Louisiana, with the technology giant retaining 20% of the asset. Hyperion is the largest of Meta’s 29 global data centres — a 4-million-square-foot complex located in rural Louisiana. Morgan Stanley arranged more than $27 billion in debt and roughly $2.5 billion in equity through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to finance the development, according to the report. The transaction has been structured through this SPV to support large-scale infrastructure investment. The site is 2,250 acres. It's gigantic [image: 1760683491611-screenshot-2025-10-17-at-07.44.07.png]

HSBC Research today issued a report on Cowos capacity, stating, they see evidence of Nvidia wafer allocation at 800k units through 2027. This is the first sign of wafer accelerated growth since June 2025. A recap Here is my May 25 estimate based on TSM public comments-this proved accurate QoQ. The important column being Nvidia wafers, circa 105k by year end. I would think e are ahead of this. Remember, there is a direct correlation between wafers and revenue. And HSBC makes this very point. If we extrapolated these numbers using the existing expansion cadence we would arrive at circa 570k wafer through 2027. HSNC claims the number is now up to 800K and have modelled GPU(DC) segment revenues of up to $400B. Accordingly they have modelled just under $10 EPS! Accordingly they have issued a new price target of $320. Exciting times ahead [image: 1760598841437-screenshot-2025-10-16-at-08.11.35.png]

Thanks Mike. Hi Eldar, The Money Markets portfolio is a very low-risk investment designed to act much like cash. It invests mainly in short-dated, high-quality instruments such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit and commercial paper, aiming to preserve capital and provide a steady return. The fund closely tracks short-term interest rates, so its yield moves in line with the Bank of England base rate. The price is usually very stable, and you can normally access your money within 3 working days via your investment platform. It’s often used as a cash-like holding for short-term funds or by investors waiting to reinvest. It offers a competitive yield compared with many savings accounts(net 3.7% after fees), currently. In practice, it behaves much like cash, but sits within an investment account rather than a bank.

Breaking news-more to follow. OpenAI sign a deal today with AVGO/Broadcomm for the design of a new Aspics accelerator. The size of the deal is circa 10GW which would be at least $150B. AVGO is up about $40

MSFT deploy their first Blackwell Ultra cluster. A mere 65 racks. Several hundred thousands additional GPUs coming. [image: 1760080556809-screenshot-2025-10-10-at-08.10.47.png]

I follow Dylan Patel, founder of Semi Analysis. Very knowledgeable on the tech side, not the 'stock' side but for me, it compliments the knowledge and allows me to separate the hype from the reality . I know he met Chuck Liang recently to discuss their plans-he thinks something important is about to drop. Why Supermicro (SMCI) Gets the Spotlight in Dylan’s Tease—And Not Dell, Foxconn, or Wiwynn SM as a key supporter of his imminent “huge” framework on AI chips, inference, and infrastructure, due to drop by the evening of 9 October. SMCI is listed alongside hyperscalers/cloud players (CoreWeave, Nebius) and hardware/infrastructure specialists (Crusoe, HPE, Tensorwave), highlighting its pivotal role in the rack/server layer for optimised inference stacks. Notably absent are Dell, Foxconn, and Wiwynn (Wistron’s AI-focused ODM arm), despite their prominence in AI server markets. This isn’t arbitrary; it reflects SMCI’s unique position as the agile, high-density leader for the “neo-cloud” era,(think IREN) tailored to inference’s bursty(yes bursty-data that can burst from 1X to 100X in a nano second,) power-intensive demands. Here’s why SMCI gets the call-out, grounded in Patel’s reports, posts, and industry context:1. SMCI’s Edge: Speed, Customisation, and Hyperscaler Fit for InferenceRapid Prototyping and Deployment: SMCI excels at “just-in-time” manufacturing, delivering 100,000+ servers in weeks rather than months. This is critical for inference, where hyperscalers like CoreWeave (an SMCI client) demand swift iterations on hybrid NVIDIA/AMD setups to manage variable query loads. Patel’s September 2025 SemiAnalysis report on rack architecture (co-authored by him) praises SMCI’s modular designs for disaggregated PDUs and liquid cooling, enabling 250kW+ racks with a 30% better total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to rigid ODM builds. Foxconn and Wiwynn, as pure ODMs, prioritise volume for branded OEMs (e.g., Dell’s enterprise kits) but lag in bespoke hyperscaler customisation. Direct Hyperscaler Relationships: SMCI sells directly to neo-clouds (CoreWeave, xAI’s Colossus—partially SMCI-supplied) and AI labs (OpenAI’s AMD pivot), bypassing intermediaries. In his August 2025 “No Priors” podcast, Patel highlights SMCI’s vertical integration (from motherboard design to cooling), giving them a two-year lead on liquid-cooled hybrids, essential for inference’s 80%+ energy draw. Dell shines in enterprise/sovereign AI (per Patel’s May 2025 “How Dell Is Beating Supermicro” report), but their slower cycles, optimised for HPC stability, don’t match neo-cloud urgency. Inference-Specific Advantages: Backed by vLLM/SGLang (inference engines-sorry tech heavy!), the framework likely benchmarks rack-level metrics like tokens/second per watt. SMCI’s 8U/10U GPU trays (e.g., SYS-821GE with 8x Blackwell) blend NVIDIA prefill compute with AMD decode efficiency, reducing latency by 20-50%. Foxconn/Wiwynn handle high-volume NVIDIA HGX for cloud giants (e.g., Foxconn’s Oracle Stargate supply), but Patel’s critiques (e.g., 2023 posts on Foxconn’s public “reveals” being overhyped) underscore their ODM commoditisation—cheaper but less innovative for multi-vendor inference. Historical Context from Patel: SMCI as the “Crusher” in AI RacksPatel’s analyses consistently position SMCI as a leader in frontier AI infrastructure. A 12 September 2025 X post details his Supermicro factory tour with CEO Charles Liang, showcasing GB300/B300 and MI355X racks—directly tying to the tease’s NVIDIA/AMD backers. In contrast, his May 2024 report praises Dell for enterprise wins (e.g., Tesla, CoreWeave orders) but notes SMCI’s resurgence in neo-clouds via cheaper, denser cooling (e.g., April 2023 post: “I’m such an idiot for not going turbo long SuperMicro... they crush Dell and crew while being much cheaper”). Final thought- SMCI’s Unique PositionDylan’s call-out of SMCI reflects their role as the inference infrastructure “backbone” for collaborative, multi-vendor stacks, validated by factory tours, reports, and backers like HPE (also listed). Dell, Foxconn, and Wiwynn play critical roles in enterprise or ODM volume but lack SMCI’s hyperscaler agility and hybrid rack innovation for inference. If the full drop (expected ~evening 9 October BST) includes rack BOMs or benchmarks, SMCI’s prominence will likely grow.

I thought it would be that, but it was worth asking, just in case. Many Thanks

[image: 1758614107382-screenshot-2025-09-23-at-08.53.57.png] This imo will pave the way for wider agreement on many resources including high end silicon (GPUs). If the deal gets done and I think it will, China get chips. I think Trump wants the win and Nvidia wants to be able to service all comers-not that China is particularly relevant today! They likely will be in the future. Today Nvidia can't meet demand so excluding certain markets makes no difference(today). In the future, the demand/supply imbalance will converge, and if relations are not restored 'soon', there may not be a future in China, because China will pave its own way and their build out/roadmap will take another course. Feeding their lead to Huawei for even 1-2 years could very well see future market share(China) lost for good.

Very impressive if it is real, but I'm skeptical. Seems I was justified - click the three dots for the description. Still, it's a mighty impressive render. [image: 1758571262139-a7c0ef52-d4b8-453d-8270-81742c9881f3-image.png]

Dan Ives had the following to say in an investors note and raised their PT (price target) to $310 (which hinges on their AI strategy imo. To date it has been none existent : Entering the iPhone 17 cycle, we anticipated a strong but not exceptional upgrade cycle. However, a significant pent-up consumer demand, with our estimate of 315 million out of 1.5 billion iPhones globally not upgraded in the past four years, combined with notable design enhancements, has driven a robust start, according to Ives and his team. The analysts suggest that Wall Street’s projection of approximately 230 million iPhone units for fiscal year 2026 may be conservative, with estimates now ranging between 240 million and 250 million units based on current momentum.“Demand in China will be pivotal to the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, as the negative growth trends of recent years are expected to reverse into positive growth in FY26,” the analysts observed. Although the iPhone Air faces delays in China due to regulatory approval for its eSIM, the analysts anticipate resolution within the next month, enabling its availability in stores and online. They noted that Apple must intensify efforts to drive growth in China, where domestic competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi present significant challenges. “The critical issue remains Apple’s understated AI strategy. With a global installed base of 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones, now is the time for Apple to accelerate its AI initiatives through strategic partnerships,” Ives and his team stated.Following the recent victory for Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Apple in Google’s antitrust case, which restricts “exclusive deals” for search, the analysts believe the groundwork is laid for Apple to maintain its existing agreement. They expect Apple to deepen its AI collaboration with Google Gemini, integrating it into the iPhone ecosystem (a positive for both).The analysts estimate that AI monetisation could contribute $75 to $100 per share to Apple’s valuation over the coming years.“No ‘AI premium’ is currently reflected in Apple’s stock price, making it an attractive large-cap technology investment heading into year-end and 2026,” they concluded. I personally think if Apple can offer AI as a service which add utility and they probably will, there will be very wide adoption given their installed base. A true assistant that can navigate across the Apple ecosystem would add considerable value.

KLAC is +$50 in pre market today-an all time high, after trying to hold the high yesterday, enter the sellers but today it's having another run. A fabulous business, run by world class executives. Congratulations all shareholders. [image: 1758196171139-screenshot-2025-09-18-at-12.48.16.png] [image: 1758196179178-screenshot-2025-09-18-at-12.48.58-resized.png]

Oracle is on the move again(up) based on rumours it will run the US operations of Tik-Tok. According to DT (Trump) 'a deal has been done'. The parties to said deal have yet to comment.

No fees other than the 0.35% annual management fee, applied monthly

Thanks for taking the time to reply Adam << thumbs up thingy>>

Thanks Adam

I don't mind disclosing the following with the caveat, everyone's situation is different by virtue of their: age appetite for volatility time to retirement total liquid assets lifestyle and cash requirements For example, we do have clients of advanced years(80+) with 100% of their assets with us in Tech. I happen to know that number represents less than 10% of their liquid funds. Conversely we have JISA accounts where their trustee has chosen MM or bonds. The point being, investment selection is based on many factors which you must weigh. Investment decisions should not be made based on a poll. If anyone wants to discuss their investment choices myself or Nik are happy to discuss. Our guidance service is FOC. Total assets under management % split and 3 year rank(1-5) performance: Lifestyle 40% (2) Tech 18%(1) IMOP 12%(4) PHE 8.5%(5) Index 8%(3) Other