Investments and Portfolios

Yes a great year notwithstanding the tarts-knickers DT effect. Thanks and looking forward to hearing about the new additions.

The assertion that China will refuse to purchase NVIDIA’s H200 chips appears to be FUD imo. Economic imperatives and technological realities strongly suggest otherwise.Recent policy shifts under the Trump administration have relaxed restrictions, permitting H200 exports to pre-approved Chinese customers subject to a 25% surcharge earmarked for United States purposes (Reuters). For hyperscalers such as Tencent, ByteDance, and Alibaba, which have been constrained by the limited performance of the sanctioned H20 or by reliance on smuggled inventory, the H200’s 989 BF16 TFLOPS represent a roughly sevenfold leap over the H20’s 148 TFLOPS.Domestic alternatives, principally Huawei’s Ascend 910C, remain markedly inferior. Independent benchmarks place the 910C at approximately 76% of H200 performance per chip (15,840 TPP vs 12,032 TPP) and significantly lower efficiency at cluster level, with power consumption up to 2.3 times higher for equivalent throughput. Production is further hampered by SMIC’s 7 nm yields, reportedly below 30%, creating chronic supply shortages. Beijing’s reported requirements—mandatory justification for foreign purchases and restrictions on public-sector use—are largely procedural and political signalling rather than outright prohibition. President Xi’s recent “positive” remarks on United States-China technology co-operation reinforce pragmatic acceptance. In the absence of a credible domestic substitute capable of training frontier-scale models, Chinese enterprises are expected to acquire H200s in volume, potentially generating 10s of billions USD in additional revenue for NVIDIA in 2026–2027.

They will beat and raise. The company has a captive market and the wind at its back. What I see(and saw when we invested) is a secular shift in their key memory segments. Next year we are looking at $20 eps. It's multiple is very low and it should rerate when the shift is confirmed.

Zuckerberg announces meaningful cut backs to the cash burning Metaverse (incl headsets), part of Reality Labs which would be accretive to earnings in the range $5B. Stock pops. Nice. [image: 1764858421688-screenshot-2025-12-04-at-14.22.39.png]

Nice pop for vertex today Vertex’s appearance at the Citi Healthcare Conference hit the right notes for investors, and the market reaction reflects it. The company reiterated the strength of its core cystic-fibrosis portfolio, which continues to deliver dependable, expanding revenue and remains the backbone of its multi-billion-dollar quarterly performance. Management reinforced that recent growth trends are holding up well, with momentum expected to persist. A major positive was the emphasis on financial capacity. Vertex sits on roughly USD 12 billion in cash and marketable securities, giving it the freedom to progress late-stage programmes without taking on debt or issuing shares. That level of balance-sheet strength is uncommon in biotech and signals stability as well as optionality for future deals or accelerated development plans. Pipeline updates also contributed to the upbeat tone. Programmes in kidney disease, gene editing and other high-value therapeutic areas were highlighted as near- and medium-term opportunities with significant commercial potential. Analysts have already argued that Vertex may be priced below its long-term fair value, and today’s messaging essentially validated that view by showing that both innovation and execution remain firmly on track. Overall, the presentation delivered a clear story: robust revenue today, meaningful breakthroughs underway and the financial muscle to drive both without compromise.

That explains why my £12 something dropped down to £11 something, then went back up again.

@SiriAlexaAl Yep, that's what's happened.

GOOG shares are up circa 6% in PM to an ATH of $293 due to Berkshire Hathaway disclosing a 4-5B investment. Nice to see the stock make gains however it's not particularly rational is it. Berkshire buying the stock is not an exciting event which has much meaning. What do they know. They've ignored the stock for 20 years and now think it's cheap-maybe, but they hardly have a great tech driven record.

@mikeiow I'm in a similar boat. Too much time on my hands and with a few pennies to spend at the bookies (I mean stock market). I used a spredsheet to come up with the chart, but couldn't produce anything other than dots on a scatter chart. There were no labels next to each dot, other than their value. I, also, couldn't produce the curves on the same chart. @Adam-Kay thanks for the steer. I'll do some googling at SD and beta.

Hi R, Yes it's a display gremlin. Ive notified admin to fix it. Ive looked at the Switch and that has been processed. Being two legs to the transaction , one out and one in the DB shows one but not the other. Regards Adam

Ok thanks.

It's a bit more nuanced than that, G. And glad you did something nice with your gains, that's what it's all about, benefiting through investment. People will always take profit into new highs, we've discussed the psychology What are 'expectations'? You could say even higher than what was delivered so is it the first point or the second? For example MSFT X, I posted those numbers(official market expectations) and they comfortably beat, all the reporting entities did. However different reactions. You might also have noticed after hours RED/GREEN/RED(same company) and then at the open big Green. Derivatives in play again. You will often hear the cliche 'it's priced in'. I'm not a fan of the catchphrase. It's largely nonsense. The PH resident IFA will say 'you don't have an edge against the pro' just word-salad. You don't need an edge, just don't chase meme stocks, chase quality and have some patience. That is why we simply stay the course. A drop yesterday and looks like(given 300+ futures) gains today.

MSFT signed an agreement with OpenAI valuing its stake at roughly $135 billion. Microsoft said it supports OpenAI’s move to form a public benefit corporation (PBC) and undertake recapitalisation. Following the deal, Microsoft holds an investment representing around 27% of OpenAI Group PBC on an as-converted diluted basis, including employees, investors, and the OpenAI Foundation. Excluding recent funding rounds, Microsoft’s earlier stake was 32.5%. OpenAI has also agreed to purchase $250 billion in Azure services, though Microsoft will no longer have exclusive rights to supply computing power. The partnership maintains Microsoft as OpenAI’s primary model collaborator, with exclusive intellectual property and Azure API rights until artificial general intelligence (AGI) is achieved. Microsoft’s IP rights extend through 2032, excluding OpenAI’s consumer hardware, while OpenAI gains flexibility to collaborate with third parties.

Today Alphabet announced its quantum-computing team delivered a verifiable quantum advantage via its “Willow” chip and “Quantum Echoes” algorithm running ~13,000× faster than a classical supercomputer. This isn’t just hype — the hardware, software stack and experimental validation all align. On top of that, Alphabet remains one of the most profitable companies in the world: it reported a net income in excess of US$100 billion in its latest full year. In the battleground of mega-cap tech, alphabets like Nvidia Corporation, Microsoft Corporation and Apple Inc. grab the headlines — but Alphabet quietly leads in profit, while trading at a discount to them. Why that matters: It shows Alphabet is not just a search and ads company — it’s positioning for the next frontier of computing (quantum, AI infrastructure, cloud). It gives it a solid financial base: when profit margins are strong and cash flows healthy, you have the flexibility to experiment and pivot. OTHER BETS It may mean the market is under-estimating Alphabet’s upside: if these emerging bets pay off, the valuation gap could shrink. Yes, hurdles remain (commercialising quantum, cloud dominance, regulatory headwinds), but dismissing Alphabet now would overlook its smart strategy and deep pockets.

Thanks Mike. Hi Eldar, The Money Markets portfolio is a very low-risk investment designed to act much like cash. It invests mainly in short-dated, high-quality instruments such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit and commercial paper, aiming to preserve capital and provide a steady return. The fund closely tracks short-term interest rates, so its yield moves in line with the Bank of England base rate. The price is usually very stable, and you can normally access your money within 3 working days via your investment platform. It’s often used as a cash-like holding for short-term funds or by investors waiting to reinvest. It offers a competitive yield compared with many savings accounts(net 3.7% after fees), currently. In practice, it behaves much like cash, but sits within an investment account rather than a bank.

Breaking news-more to follow. OpenAI sign a deal today with AVGO/Broadcomm for the design of a new Aspics accelerator. The size of the deal is circa 10GW which would be at least $150B. AVGO is up about $40

I follow Dylan Patel, founder of Semi Analysis. Very knowledgeable on the tech side, not the 'stock' side but for me, it compliments the knowledge and allows me to separate the hype from the reality . I know he met Chuck Liang recently to discuss their plans-he thinks something important is about to drop. Why Supermicro (SMCI) Gets the Spotlight in Dylan’s Tease—And Not Dell, Foxconn, or Wiwynn SM as a key supporter of his imminent “huge” framework on AI chips, inference, and infrastructure, due to drop by the evening of 9 October. SMCI is listed alongside hyperscalers/cloud players (CoreWeave, Nebius) and hardware/infrastructure specialists (Crusoe, HPE, Tensorwave), highlighting its pivotal role in the rack/server layer for optimised inference stacks. Notably absent are Dell, Foxconn, and Wiwynn (Wistron’s AI-focused ODM arm), despite their prominence in AI server markets. This isn’t arbitrary; it reflects SMCI’s unique position as the agile, high-density leader for the “neo-cloud” era,(think IREN) tailored to inference’s bursty(yes bursty-data that can burst from 1X to 100X in a nano second,) power-intensive demands. Here’s why SMCI gets the call-out, grounded in Patel’s reports, posts, and industry context:1. SMCI’s Edge: Speed, Customisation, and Hyperscaler Fit for InferenceRapid Prototyping and Deployment: SMCI excels at “just-in-time” manufacturing, delivering 100,000+ servers in weeks rather than months. This is critical for inference, where hyperscalers like CoreWeave (an SMCI client) demand swift iterations on hybrid NVIDIA/AMD setups to manage variable query loads. Patel’s September 2025 SemiAnalysis report on rack architecture (co-authored by him) praises SMCI’s modular designs for disaggregated PDUs and liquid cooling, enabling 250kW+ racks with a 30% better total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to rigid ODM builds. Foxconn and Wiwynn, as pure ODMs, prioritise volume for branded OEMs (e.g., Dell’s enterprise kits) but lag in bespoke hyperscaler customisation. Direct Hyperscaler Relationships: SMCI sells directly to neo-clouds (CoreWeave, xAI’s Colossus—partially SMCI-supplied) and AI labs (OpenAI’s AMD pivot), bypassing intermediaries. In his August 2025 “No Priors” podcast, Patel highlights SMCI’s vertical integration (from motherboard design to cooling), giving them a two-year lead on liquid-cooled hybrids, essential for inference’s 80%+ energy draw. Dell shines in enterprise/sovereign AI (per Patel’s May 2025 “How Dell Is Beating Supermicro” report), but their slower cycles, optimised for HPC stability, don’t match neo-cloud urgency. Inference-Specific Advantages: Backed by vLLM/SGLang (inference engines-sorry tech heavy!), the framework likely benchmarks rack-level metrics like tokens/second per watt. SMCI’s 8U/10U GPU trays (e.g., SYS-821GE with 8x Blackwell) blend NVIDIA prefill compute with AMD decode efficiency, reducing latency by 20-50%. Foxconn/Wiwynn handle high-volume NVIDIA HGX for cloud giants (e.g., Foxconn’s Oracle Stargate supply), but Patel’s critiques (e.g., 2023 posts on Foxconn’s public “reveals” being overhyped) underscore their ODM commoditisation—cheaper but less innovative for multi-vendor inference. Historical Context from Patel: SMCI as the “Crusher” in AI RacksPatel’s analyses consistently position SMCI as a leader in frontier AI infrastructure. A 12 September 2025 X post details his Supermicro factory tour with CEO Charles Liang, showcasing GB300/B300 and MI355X racks—directly tying to the tease’s NVIDIA/AMD backers. In contrast, his May 2024 report praises Dell for enterprise wins (e.g., Tesla, CoreWeave orders) but notes SMCI’s resurgence in neo-clouds via cheaper, denser cooling (e.g., April 2023 post: “I’m such an idiot for not going turbo long SuperMicro... they crush Dell and crew while being much cheaper”). Final thought- SMCI’s Unique PositionDylan’s call-out of SMCI reflects their role as the inference infrastructure “backbone” for collaborative, multi-vendor stacks, validated by factory tours, reports, and backers like HPE (also listed). Dell, Foxconn, and Wiwynn play critical roles in enterprise or ODM volume but lack SMCI’s hyperscaler agility and hybrid rack innovation for inference. If the full drop (expected ~evening 9 October BST) includes rack BOMs or benchmarks, SMCI’s prominence will likely grow.

I thought it would be that, but it was worth asking, just in case. Many Thanks

Very impressive if it is real, but I'm skeptical. Seems I was justified - click the three dots for the description. Still, it's a mighty impressive render. [image: 1758571262139-a7c0ef52-d4b8-453d-8270-81742c9881f3-image.png]

Dan Ives had the following to say in an investors note and raised their PT (price target) to $310 (which hinges on their AI strategy imo. To date it has been none existent : Entering the iPhone 17 cycle, we anticipated a strong but not exceptional upgrade cycle. However, a significant pent-up consumer demand, with our estimate of 315 million out of 1.5 billion iPhones globally not upgraded in the past four years, combined with notable design enhancements, has driven a robust start, according to Ives and his team. The analysts suggest that Wall Street’s projection of approximately 230 million iPhone units for fiscal year 2026 may be conservative, with estimates now ranging between 240 million and 250 million units based on current momentum.“Demand in China will be pivotal to the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, as the negative growth trends of recent years are expected to reverse into positive growth in FY26,” the analysts observed. Although the iPhone Air faces delays in China due to regulatory approval for its eSIM, the analysts anticipate resolution within the next month, enabling its availability in stores and online. They noted that Apple must intensify efforts to drive growth in China, where domestic competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi present significant challenges. “The critical issue remains Apple’s understated AI strategy. With a global installed base of 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones, now is the time for Apple to accelerate its AI initiatives through strategic partnerships,” Ives and his team stated.Following the recent victory for Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Apple in Google’s antitrust case, which restricts “exclusive deals” for search, the analysts believe the groundwork is laid for Apple to maintain its existing agreement. They expect Apple to deepen its AI collaboration with Google Gemini, integrating it into the iPhone ecosystem (a positive for both).The analysts estimate that AI monetisation could contribute $75 to $100 per share to Apple’s valuation over the coming years.“No ‘AI premium’ is currently reflected in Apple’s stock price, making it an attractive large-cap technology investment heading into year-end and 2026,” they concluded. I personally think if Apple can offer AI as a service which add utility and they probably will, there will be very wide adoption given their installed base. A true assistant that can navigate across the Apple ecosystem would add considerable value.