Investments and Portfolios

good to see ! PS Happy anniversary

Interesting to see AI agents gaining traction, and why not. It's obvious we are on the cusp of a pervasive AI based customer support roll out. Calling a bank, utility or telco fills most customers with dread. I can see interactions in the near future being via an App and verbal, not necessarily initiated by a phone call. Think about a machine that will know a lot more about your use case and the services offered-far more than any human can. [image: 1756886913004-screenshot-2025-09-03-at-09.03.43.png]

Breaking news On September 2, 2025, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta’s remedies ruling in the United States v. Google LLC (2020) antitrust case delivered a significant win for Google, lifting the threat of a breakup. The ruling rejected the DOJ’s push to divest Chrome or Android, preserving Google’s ecosystem and ~$175B ad revenue machine. Instead, it imposed lighter measures: ending exclusive default search deals (e.g., $20B/year to Apple), allowing multiple defaults, and sharing limited anonymised data with rivals. This avoids disruption while letting Google redirect funds to AI and cloud growth**. Investors cheered, sending Alphabet’s stock up ~7% after hours**, reflecting relief from the breakup overhang that loomed since the August 2024 liability ruling. The decision’s leniency, Google’s appeal plans, and focus on traditional search (not AI) signal limited immediate impact on its dominance, boosting confidence in its long-term value despite ongoing ad tech scrutiny. GOOG now sit's at an all time high. GOOG was the subject of our investment committee meeting last week. We took the decision then and rebalanced on Monday, taking our holding to the highest weight to date, citing the companies superior earnings record, clear pathway to further growth and relatively low PE. Easily the cheapest of the Mag 7. We have held the stock a relatively long time and only recently has it burst forth(the stock). A pleasing piece of news

This is in regards to Blackwell chips [image: 1756630643870-screenshot-2025-08-31-at-09.56.49-resized.png]

No fees other than the 0.35% annual management fee, applied monthly

Today's KLA weakness. After hitting an all time high it dropped 5% after hours due to 'sector sympathy'. Applied Materials which is in the same sector although completely different business issued a soft outlook (China). It is completely illogical but this is what happens when trading is algho based. Same sector = sell. AMAT’s weaker outlook is mostly a China mature-node + export licence story. KLA is riding a completely different wave – process control intensity for AI and packaging nodes – and that’s why they’ve guided higher despite seeing the same macro headlines. To be ignored Amat issued weak guidance (a contraction). two weeks ago KLA issued record guidance-go figure.

Further, yesterday Micron's Chief Business Officer said the following. Basically they are 'sold out' until Dec 26. What companies like Micron do is the bulk of the product will now be under contract. Micron will reserve some inventory to also sell on the spot market at potentially, much higher prices and of course they will likely increase yield through efficiency. HBM4 is a key component in Rubin architecture (Blackwell-Next) [image: 1754998342363-screenshot-2025-08-12-at-12.29.43-resized.png]

Thanks for taking the time to reply Adam << thumbs up thingy>>

Our weight changes regularly. On a fundamentals basis the stock is not over valued imo so I am not so much concerned about the multiple. I can't comment on anyones personal Extra-Portfolio holdings. The ideas im working on at the moment factor. As mentioned it's all about relative opportunities.

Thanks Adam

@2BToo Snap

I don't mind disclosing the following with the caveat, everyone's situation is different by virtue of their: age appetite for volatility time to retirement total liquid assets lifestyle and cash requirements For example, we do have clients of advanced years(80+) with 100% of their assets with us in Tech. I happen to know that number represents less than 10% of their liquid funds. Conversely we have JISA accounts where their trustee has chosen MM or bonds. The point being, investment selection is based on many factors which you must weigh. Investment decisions should not be made based on a poll. If anyone wants to discuss their investment choices myself or Nik are happy to discuss. Our guidance service is FOC. Total assets under management % split and 3 year rank(1-5) performance: Lifestyle 40% (2) Tech 18%(1) IMOP 12%(4) PHE 8.5%(5) Index 8%(3) Other

An incredible result from GOOG, $28B net income for a 13 week quarter. The stock has done well lately but there is still an overhang from sentiment that the company has anti trust issues and is spending too much on AI. I think these fears are materially overblown. GOOG reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings on 23 July 2025, showing robust financial performance driven by strong growth in Search, YouTube, and Cloud segments, underpinned by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). Despite a significant increase in CapEx, the company exceeded analyst expectations, though investor sentiment was mixed due to concerns over rising expenditure (always!)and regulatory challenges.Key Financials (Q2 2025)Revenue: $96.43 billion, up 13.8% year-over-year (YoY), surpassing estimates of $94 billion. Revenue (ex-TAC-traffic acquisition cost): $81.2 billion, compared to expectations of $79.6 billion. Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.31 (adjusted), a 22% YoY increase, beating estimates of $2.18. Net Income: $28.2 billion, up 19% YoY. Operating Income: $31.3 billion, up 14% YoY, with an operating margin of 32.4% (flat YoY despite legal settlement costs). Google Cloud Revenue: $13.62 billion, up 32% YoY, exceeding estimates of $13.11 billion. YouTube Advertising Revenue: $9.8 billion, up 13% YoY, slightly above estimates of $9.56 billion. Search Revenue: $54.1 billion, up 11% YoY, surpassing expectations of $52.7 billion. Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC): $14.71 billion, in line with expectations. Conference call highlights AI-Driven Growth:Pichai emphasised that “AI is positively impacting every part of the business, driving strong momentum.” Search saw double-digit revenue growth, fuelled by AI features like AI Overviews (1.5 billion monthly users) and AI Mode (100 million monthly active users). Google’s Gemini AI model has grown to 450 million monthly users, reinforcing Alphabet’s competitive edge in AI against rivals like ChatGPT. Google Cloud’s 32% YoY revenue growth was driven by demand for AI infrastructure and generative AI solutions, with an annual revenue run-rate exceeding $50 billion. Capital Expenditure :Alphabet announced a $10 billion increase in its 2025 CapEx guidance, raising the total to $85 billion from $75 billion, reflecting strong demand for cloud and AI infrastructure. CFO Anat Ashkenazi noted that Q2 CapEx was $22.4 billion, significantly above estimates of $18.2 billion, primarily for servers and data centres(nice). The increase is driven by a “tight supply environment” for chips needed to train and run AI models. Ashkenazi highlighted that CapEx is expected to rise further in 2026 due to ongoing demand, but Alphabet is focused on efficient allocation to mitigate profitability concerns. A “highly rigorous process” ensures optimal use of resources. The increased CapEx raised investor concerns about near-term profitability(we can see profit headwinds NOT), as depreciation costs are expected to accelerate in 2025 due to prior and ongoing infrastructure investments. Positive Developments:Search: AI Overviews and AI Mode have boosted user engagement, enabling Alphabet to address more complex queries and maintain its dominance despite competition from AI-powered chatbots. Search revenue grew 11% YoY, outperforming expectations. YouTube: The platform’s ad revenue grew 13% YoY, driven by increased viewership on Connected TV and Shorts monetisation, which now matches or exceeds traditional in-stream ads in key markets. YouTube’s shift to television as its primary consumption medium is eroding traditional network market share. Google Cloud: The segment’s profitability improved, with an operating margin of 20.7% (up from 17.1% in Q1 2025), reflecting strong demand for AI and core cloud products. Subscriptions and Other Bets: Subscription platforms (YouTube, Google One) grew 19% YoY to $10.4 billion, with 270 million paid subscribers globally. Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle unit, is scaling, serving over 150,000 paid rides weekly. Talent and Innovation: Pichai downplayed concerns about AI talent wars, stating that retention and new talent acquisition metrics remain “healthy.” The company continues to innovate rapidly, with over 1,000 new cloud products and features launched in the past eight months. After an initial soft after hours reaction, the stock rose a few dollars and futures are up nicely overall.

At least they haven't named one Skynet, yet

Samsung will commence production of OLED screens in Q4, which will be used in Apple's first foldable phone-scheduled for release in H2, 2026. Expect the iPhone foldable to retail for circa £2K!

Following on from the above it has been confirmed that OpenAi Stargate is the Oracle customer-they have signed a deal for 4.6GW of compute. An enormous amount and the biggest ever contract for data centre HPC. Oracle-cloud revenue today is running at around $11B/annum and this will add $30B starting in 2028. As part of the deal oracle will invest $40 billion of its own money and the rest likely from other Stargate partners. As per Jensen 1GW = $40B revenue to Nvidia and as we can see this is 4.6GW and equates to at least 30,000 racks. My take on this- it confirms the narrative that Nvidia are just getting started. Secondly, first move to Oracle/Openai. What will MSFT/AWS/GOOG/Meta/XAI do to defend their position? Answer-very likely accelerate and expand their plans materially. They have to. Winners will certainly be: MU NVDA SMCI AVGO ORCL

From JP Morgan: AMZN has grown its Advertising Services revenue from ~$13B in 2019 to ~$56B in 2024, implying a +39% CAGR. The success of Amazon’s Advertising Services business highlights key advantages AMZN & retailers have over GOOGL & META. According to WSJ, AMZN has deployed more than one million robots in facilities, which is the most it has ever had and near the count of human workers at the facilities.

Colossus-2 expansion to 1 million GPUs gets closer....... xAI is raising $25 billion, comprising $5 billion in debt through Morgan Stanley (a term loan B, fixed-rate term loan, and senior secured notes) to fund the Colossus supercomputer with commitments due by June 17, 2025. Additionally, xAI is seeking $20 billion in equity at a valuation between $120 billion and $200 billion to support its growth.

Interesting update which is a big positive for companies like Oracle. 'You can have our tech if we manage it' -seems to be a link to Stagate/open AI for countries. Quoted from a news wire below New AI Diffusion Rule is COMING SOON and New Version Will Let Allies Buy US Chips With Conditions The Commerce Department is drafting a replacement for its recently repealed AI diffusion rule to ensure the new controls don’t impede U.S. exports to allies, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said June 4. “Our view is we are going to allow our allies to buy AI chips provided they’re run by an approved American data center operator and the cloud that touches that data center is an approved American operator, so we control it while it’s over there,” Lutnick testified before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and Science. The rule that was rescinded last month (see 2505130018) was “very confusing,” Lutnick said. “For example, the prime minister of Poland hunted me down and said, ‘What did I ever do to you that you have me as a Tier 3’ country, the most stringent of three tiers? ‘I’m part of Europe -- what are you doing?’ It was illogical. It was hastily rushed through at the very end of the Biden administration.” He expects Commerce will release the new AI diffusion rule soon. “I can’t say with more specificity but pretty soon,” he said.

The previously posted tables containing predicted min Blackwell (packaged) chips has proven very accurate in fact we also said TSMC would likely find additional capacity(and apparently they have). And from that we forecast the revenue growth, knowing what they sell these chips for. The start of Blackwell was clunky due to the transition from Hopper because Hopper was packaged on the 'S' line and Blackwell on the 'L' line and there were some heating issues which is no surprise because it was all very new. We predicted about $10 billion Q o Q growth vs $4-5B during Hoppers reign. We are now at this point today. Blackwell is bug free and at ramping as fast as CoWoS will allow. This is the old schedule by quarter in 000's: [image: 1748798151117-screenshot-2025-06-01-at-18.14.59.png] . TSMC have indicated circa 500k chips per month and growing from June. They are all sold(5-10X). Losing China completely, and it wont be but let's just ignore it all together. All that has happened is we take the hit and next quarter they achieve $47B and the next $57, $67, $77 and so on. The only caveat is that when Rubin arrives at year end, Dec/Jan they will add further revenue to each quarter simply due to the ASP of Rubin being higher-so id expect $12-$13B q o q increases. Next year automotive will be meaningful as all car makers equip their cars with ADAS and robotics/omniverse will start adding revenues-the q o q rhythm will grow again. But this is exactly how I see their revenue grow over time. A very long time and yes I expect 100B+ per quarter some time at the end of next year or Q1 the following. And to anyone who thinks they will have transition issues again, well, Rubin and Rubin Ultra are all packaged on the same line so the transition will be seamless . It is not until 2027 that packaging will move to a new process called Sow-X which is when the real party starts. We are looking at racks 40X more powerful than today's. Racks containing 500 chips and consuming 1 megawatt each and could cost $20M or more. This is the roadmap from 2027 to 29. The experts have been predicting a plateau in revenue for over a year now-remember Cathy Wood and the 'Dean of Valuation'. They were all wrong and continue to be so. Cisco-look at Cisco. A very scientific analogy. Exciting times ahead imo.