Here are the notes from teh investor meeting today:
Fundamental Shift: From Price-per-Bit to Price-per-BandwidthThis was the standout insight shared by Micron’s management.The memory industry is moving away from the traditional focus on price-per-bit (how many bits are sold and whether the price per bit rises or falls).
In the AI era, especially with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and high-performance DRAM, customers now evaluate memory primarily on price-per-bandwidth — i.e., how much data per second can be delivered to the GPU.
While price-per-bit may rise in 2026, price-per-bandwidth is expected to decline because newer products deliver significantly higher performance.
This allows Micron to increase average selling prices (ASPs) while customers perceive better price-performance and improved total cost of ownership (TCO).
Implication: Stronger pricing power, structurally higher gross margins, and a break from the old cyclical pattern where rising bit supply led to margin collapse. HBM and AI DRAM are now integral to overall GPU system performance rather than just capacity.
Multi-Year AI Memory SupercycleCantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating on Micron ($MU) and maintained it as a Top Pick, with a Street-high price target of $700.
Strong conviction in a multi-year AI-driven memory supercycle, despite broader market skepticism.
Key drivers include explosive HBM demand linked to NVIDIA platforms (including mass production of HBM4 for the upcoming Vera Rubin GPU)(remember the rumour they were excluded), rising memory content per server, and scaling AI inference workloads (more users and tokens require more bandwidth).
Supply and Capacity Outlook-Micron’s 2026 capacity is fully sold out.
DRAM supply is expected to remain tight through at least calendar year 2027, with the first meaningful market balance not anticipated until 2028.
Micron is well positioned to gain share as a credible dual-source supplier (alongside dominant SK Hynix) for high-value HBM.
Capital Returns Management expects very aggressive share buybacks to commence in December 2026, supported by strong cash flow generation.
Geopolitical and Supply Chain Resilience-No material impact is expected from the war in Iran or related disruptions.
Micron’s supply chain for critical inputs (helium, LNG, and other raw materials) is more domestic/U.S.-centric than that of its Korean competitors, providing a relative advantage.
Overall Tone from ManagementMicron emphasised the secular and durable(we said this 6 months ago) nature of AI-driven memory demand, evolving customer relationships (including more structured supply agreements), and how its high-value memory roadmaps directly enable more advanced AI capabilities. The company is positioning itself as moving beyond a traditional cyclical memory player toward a key AI infrastructure enabler with sustainably higher margins.(and why not, if Nvidia command 75+ gm so can Micron).
It sounds extremely positive to me. Management will always be err on the conservative side but what they are saying is blue sky for 2 years-as far as they can see with everything sold out despite aggressive Capex and growing supply as fast as humanly possible.
The stock is up 20% from yesterday's lows. I wonder how those sellers feel today