JH is arriving in Europe this weekend and is due to meet many Heads of State as well as present at a couple of conferences. Likely we will hear of further Sovereign AI/Token factory initiatives next week! There could be a giant EU project brewing to rival Stargate.

Elon Musk commented on June 2, 2025, about the Colossus 2 supercomputer. According to a Washington Post article published on June 1, 2025, Musk told CNBC that Colossus 2, described as the world’s “first gigawatt-class training cluster,” is expected to come online “in about six months, maybe nine,” implying a timeline of approximately December 2025 to March 2026 What we know so far : 168 Tesla Mega packs are onsite as of May 2025. This will provide 700MW in back up power. The project is for +800,000 B200 and B300 chips. All Blackwell and liquid cooled. Worst case scenario the racks will start being installed July through March. This is Q1, Q2 and Q3 of SMCI FY 2026. The total rack spend is $40-$44 billion. Based on Dell's own public statements they have secured $5 billion-actually their exact comment was ' we are close to securing $5B' At the end of May Dell stated their backlog was $12 Billion, throwing shade over their historical 50% share of Xai projects! 50% would be min $20 billion, coupled with the fact Dell have other customers. Dell has never supplied Xai with any DLC. SMCI have set up local operations to support Xai long term. A very good sign of material collaboration. It is yet to be confirmed but I think SMCI have secured 35-39 billion or 88% of the Colossus-2 expansion. If true they will very soon file an 8-K noting material additional funding via debt, convertibles and possibly equity to support this project. Do they have the capacity to deliver 10,000+ racks over 9 months? Yes they do. Current capacity is somewhere north of 2,500 DLC racks per month with a plan to expand to 5,000 pm within the next 18 months. 3k by Dec...... Is the Q1 guide about to sing? Probably

U.S. Labor Market Resilience Shines in May 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls The U.S. labour market continues to display remarkable resilience, as evidenced by the May 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report released today. Employers added 139,000 jobs, surpassing the consensus forecast of 130,000 and signaling steady growth despite global economic uncertainties and tariff concerns. While slightly below April’s robust 177,000, the figure underscores a labor market that remains a pillar of strength for the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate held firm at 4.2%, aligning with expectations and reflecting stability. Average hourly earnings rose by a modest 0.3%, consistent with forecasts, indicating controlled inflationary pressures. The average workweek stayed at 34.3 hours, suggesting businesses are maintaining steady operations without overextending. This balanced report highlights the labour market’s ability to absorb shocks, from geopolitical tensions to monetary policy shifts. Investors may view this as a "Goldilocks" outcome—growth that’s neither too hot to spur aggressive Federal Reserve tightening nor too cold to signal recession.

Morning, Air time is driven by: Weight or our position vs the market position. We were contrarians with SMCI (still are). SMCI drives a lot of opinion! The significance of the company vs the sector Companies driving change/innovation (driving news) My personal interests-and what I think others find interesting-esoteric sectors Cobens has 20k clients and we managed 3X more assets than IM before the rescue I appreciate that we talk about Tech a lot and a couple of holdings in particular. The fact is Nvidia drives/is a barometer of the wider sector(and the market) and what is good/bad for Nvidia impacts other big names.

Yep-medp too. Ron’s list is correct

The previously posted tables containing predicted min Blackwell (packaged) chips has proven very accurate in fact we also said TSMC would likely find additional capacity(and apparently they have). And from that we forecast the revenue growth, knowing what they sell these chips for. The start of Blackwell was clunky due to the transition from Hopper because Hopper was packaged on the 'S' line and Blackwell on the 'L' line and there were some heating issues which is no surprise because it was all very new. We predicted about $10 billion Q o Q growth vs $4-5B during Hoppers reign. We are now at this point today. Blackwell is bug free and at ramping as fast as CoWoS will allow. This is the old schedule by quarter in 000's: [image: 1748798151117-screenshot-2025-06-01-at-18.14.59.png] . TSMC have indicated circa 500k chips per month and growing from June. They are all sold(5-10X). Losing China completely, and it wont be but let's just ignore it all together. All that has happened is we take the hit and next quarter they achieve $47B and the next $57, $67, $77 and so on. The only caveat is that when Rubin arrives at year end, Dec/Jan they will add further revenue to each quarter simply due to the ASP of Rubin being higher-so id expect $12-$13B q o q increases. Next year automotive will be meaningful as all car makers equip their cars with ADAS and robotics/omniverse will start adding revenues-the q o q rhythm will grow again. But this is exactly how I see their revenue grow over time. A very long time and yes I expect 100B+ per quarter some time at the end of next year or Q1 the following. And to anyone who thinks they will have transition issues again, well, Rubin and Rubin Ultra are all packaged on the same line so the transition will be seamless . It is not until 2027 that packaging will move to a new process called Sow-X which is when the real party starts. We are looking at racks 40X more powerful than today's. Racks containing 500 chips and consuming 1 megawatt each and could cost $20M or more. This is the roadmap from 2027 to 29. The experts have been predicting a plateau in revenue for over a year now-remember Cathy Wood and the 'Dean of Valuation'. They were all wrong and continue to be so. Cisco-look at Cisco. A very scientific analogy. Exciting times ahead imo.

A solid result from AVGO, beating expectations and guiding higher-ahead of consensus expectations. Asics is growing dramatically with the growth trend continuing through 2026. Q2 FY2025 Results: Revenue: $15.004 billion, up 20% year-on-year, meeting estimates of $14.99 billion. AI Semiconductor Revenue: $4.4 billion, up 46% year-on-year. Infrastructure Software Revenue: $6.6 billion, up 25% year-on-year, exceeding guidance of $6.5 billion. Semiconductor Solutions Revenue: $8.4 billion, up 17% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA: $10.0 billion, up 35% year-on-year (67% of revenue). Free Cash Flow: $6.4 billion, up 44% year-on-year (43% of revenue). Capital Allocation: Paid $2.8 billion in dividends and repurchased $4.2 billion in shares. Q3 FY2025 Guidance: Revenue: $15.8 billion, up 21% year-on-year, slightly above estimates of $15.72–$15.79 billion. AI Semiconductor Revenue: $5.1 billion, up 60% year-on-year. Semiconductor Revenue: $9.1 billion, up 25% year-on-year. Infrastructure Software Revenue: $6.7 billion, up 16% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA: Expected at 66% of revenue. Management Insights Hock E. Tan, CEO, highlighted, “Our record Q1 and Q2 revenues of $15.004 billion reflect strong AI demand and VMware momentum.” He noted AI networking (Ethernet-based) contributed 40% of AI revenue and introduced the Tomahawk 6 switch, enabling efficient AI clusters with 102.4 terabits per second capacity. Tan projected “accelerated XPU demand in late 2026 for inference and training.” Kirsten M. Spears, CFO, added, “Gross margins of 79.1% in Q1 and 79.4% in Q2 exceeded forecasts due to a favourable product mix.” Outlook and 2026 Expectations Broadcom anticipates continued growth, with Q3 revenue guidance of $15.8 billion and AI semiconductor revenue expected to sustain its FY2025 growth rate into FY2026. Management expressed confidence in organic growth, supported by innovations like Tomahawk 6 and strong VMware Cloud Foundation adoption (over 85% of top 10,000 customers). Risks and Challenges Non-AI semiconductor revenue remains sluggish, with slow recovery. Free cash flow is impacted by VMware acquisition debt interest and higher taxes. The stock is at an all time high so we would expect a bit of churn as recently macro events play out and the stock forms a solid base to spring board to the next level. A fantastic business that has a very bright future. [image: 1749193083757-screenshot-2025-06-06-at-07.57.39.png]

@dingg yep - mine too

If there is a tariff on phones, Apple will raise global prices to smooth the spikes. It’s not a sustainable model so best to ignore it as yet about pet project of DT. With earnings next week(Nvidia) it’s all eyes elsewhere.

Medpace I did mention it here and an email will go out, probably next week

Samsung announce delays in qualification of HBM3E memory, pushing back their production until at least Q4-an excellent update for Micron which is in mass production.

The stock doesn’t fit out criteria and moving 100% in a day doesn’t make it attractive. Odds are it will fade over the coming weeks. It’s very small, no track record, loses money and will be extremely volatile. And to add something you have to make a call on what to sell. That’s not to say it can’t go higher.

Interesting update which is a big positive for companies like Oracle. 'You can have our tech if we manage it' -seems to be a link to Stagate/open AI for countries. Quoted from a news wire below New AI Diffusion Rule is COMING SOON and New Version Will Let Allies Buy US Chips With Conditions The Commerce Department is drafting a replacement for its recently repealed AI diffusion rule to ensure the new controls don’t impede U.S. exports to allies, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said June 4. “Our view is we are going to allow our allies to buy AI chips provided they’re run by an approved American data center operator and the cloud that touches that data center is an approved American operator, so we control it while it’s over there,” Lutnick testified before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and Science. The rule that was rescinded last month (see 2505130018) was “very confusing,” Lutnick said. “For example, the prime minister of Poland hunted me down and said, ‘What did I ever do to you that you have me as a Tier 3’ country, the most stringent of three tiers? ‘I’m part of Europe -- what are you doing?’ It was illogical. It was hastily rushed through at the very end of the Biden administration.” He expects Commerce will release the new AI diffusion rule soon. “I can’t say with more specificity but pretty soon,” he said.