We need to remember we paid $90 18 months ago. To say it's been a fantastic investment is a huge understatement. My view is simple.
Value is based on durable earnings and cashflow (and a bunch of other 'stuff). Are their earnings durable. Well, every piece of evidence, and I mean every, says yes. If their biggest customers are locking in supply agreements for 5 years they think so. Nvidia thinks so, TSM thinks so, Musk thinks so. Mehrotra, a veteran in the industry thinks so. The only ones who don't think so are a few shorts. And I don't believe they believe what they say. Anything that moves +10X can be knocked down a peg or two if you sew the seed of doubt. It's a simple but effective play on human nature. Fear and greed.
And here is the icing on the cake. It's not like we are sitting here with a bubbly multiple, one in the 40s or 50s(or more). It's 5. Put another way, Micron will earn more money than Apple, MSFT and even Google in 27/28/29/30 but its valuation is 25% OF them. It may even catch Nvidia. I like the margin of safety
