Dan Ives had the following to say in an investors note and raised their PT (price target) to $310 (which hinges on their AI strategy imo. To date it has been none existent :
Entering the iPhone 17 cycle, we anticipated a strong but not exceptional upgrade cycle. However, a significant pent-up consumer demand, with our estimate of 315 million out of 1.5 billion iPhones globally not upgraded in the past four years, combined with notable design enhancements, has driven a robust start, according to Ives and his team.
The analysts suggest that Wall Street’s projection of approximately 230 million iPhone units for fiscal year 2026 may be conservative, with estimates now ranging between 240 million and 250 million units based on current momentum.“Demand in China will be pivotal to the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, as the negative growth trends of recent years are expected to reverse into positive growth in FY26,” the analysts observed.
Although the iPhone Air faces delays in China due to regulatory approval for its eSIM, the analysts anticipate resolution within the next month, enabling its availability in stores and online. They noted that Apple must intensify efforts to drive growth in China, where domestic competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi present significant challenges.
“The critical issue remains Apple’s understated AI strategy. With a global installed base of 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones, now is the time for Apple to accelerate its AI initiatives through strategic partnerships,” Ives and his team stated.Following the recent victory for Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Apple in Google’s antitrust case, which restricts “exclusive deals” for search, the analysts believe the groundwork is laid for Apple to maintain its existing agreement.
They expect Apple to deepen its AI collaboration with Google Gemini, integrating it into the iPhone ecosystem (a positive for both).The analysts estimate that AI monetisation could contribute $75 to $100 per share to Apple’s valuation over the coming years.“No ‘AI premium’ is currently reflected in Apple’s stock price, making it an attractive large-cap technology investment heading into year-end and 2026,” they concluded.
I personally think if Apple can offer AI as a service which add utility and they probably will, there will be very wide adoption given their installed base. A true assistant that can navigate across the Apple ecosystem would add considerable value.