Investments and Portfolios

Hi D, Netflix is set to drop its Q1 2025 earnings after the market shuts on 17 April. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) will hit $5.74, up 8.7% from $5.28 last year, with revenue expected at $10.54 billion, a 12.5% jump year-on-year. That’s pretty close to Netflix’s own forecast of $10.46 billion in revenue and an operating margin of 28.2%. They’ve got a history of smashing EPS forecasts, beating expectations in all four of the last reported quarters, like Q4 2024 when they pulled off $4.27 against $4.20 expected. That said, it's hard to know but their numbers should be solid. Everyone’s eyeing their ad-supported memberships, which made up 55% of sign-ups in ad markets last quarter, and their content line-up, with several content hits. They won’t disclose subscriber numbers anymore, focusing on revenue and margins instead.

Here is a complete list of ALL notable Robotics players. See the common thread? [image: 1744622289650-screenshot-2025-04-14-at-10.15.51.png]

SK hynix raises its 2025 CAPEX from $15 billion to $19 billion. SK Hynix has decided to increase its planned CAPEX this year by 30% due to the surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which was already high. The chipmaker initially planned to spend 22 trillion won this year in expanding its facilities but this has been upped to 29 trillion won, sources said. The decision was recently finalised and SK Hynix has also sent memos to suppliers to deliver the equipment to the M15X fab in Chungju by October, two months faster than initially planned. These moves are all responses from its customers requesting SK Hynix deliver more HBM chips faster. The company’s main customer is Nvidia, which is using HBM with its AI accelerators. The GPU giant is requesting SK Hynix deliver HBM faster than planned. SK Hynix will also be supplying HBMs to Broadcom starting this year. We are reading the room, folks. Demand is off the hook and I would speculate, supply is also improving. Whilst the market is distracted by and shunning everything due to tariffs speculation, these businesses are clearly articulating a shift.

Here is the compute comparison. One rack = the entire DC. The DC cost 3b usd to build and 150m annually to operate excluding the land/lease The single rack costs 30m and 12m to operate annually. Could live in a broom closet [image: 1742381904418-screen-shot-2025-03-19-at-10.52.08.png]

We will be making two changes to the portfolios next week(2 new stocks)-not sure of exact timing. Treat this as aheads up of an impending rebalance across Lifestyle/Tech

Great to hear Ron. That portfolio has been very productive. I’m very proud of it and very pleased for anyone who put their hard earned money into it.

Thanks for the replies and sorry I missed your call earlier Adam. I'll give you a bell in the morning. Cheers all, have a good evening.

A solid result from Vertex, meeting expectations and guiding higher for the current year. The main focus being their newly approved pain therapy. Here are some notes taken from the conference call. It's a very big market and this drug will be a 'Blockbuster'-revenue greater than $1B and annually, once it gets known/established. We have a holding cost of $256. The current price is $470, as such the IC is very pleased with the company performance. Vertex has a bright future ahead of itself-improving patients qualify of life and earning shareholders healthy profits along the way. A win-win as they say. JOURNAVX in acute pain as we are currently 10 days post the milestone approval of this first selective, oral, non-opioid pain signal inhibitor. The approval is so critical because JOURNAVX represents the first new class of pain medicine in over 20 years. It combines effective pain relief with a favourable safety profile. And based on its MOA(mechanism of action), it does not have addiction potential. It is indicated for use across all types of moderate-to-severe acute pain. For example, post-surgery, broken bones, sports injuries and has the potential to establish a new standard of care for the 80 million patients, who seek a prescription therapy to treat moderate-to-severe acute pain each year in the U.S. Half of those seeking help for their acute pain or approximately 40 million Americans each year are prescribed opioids, which although effective have significant safety and tolerability concerns and addictive potential. In fact, tragically, an estimated 85,000 people each year will develop opioid use disorder within the first year of being prescribed an opioid for acute pain. We believe we now have the opportunity to transform how acute pain is treated in the U.S. and to build another multi-billion dollar franchise for Vertex. We are launch ready and have now begun commercialisation of JOURNAVX. Our focus for 2025 is to engage with healthcare professionals, decision-makers and payers to establish the conditions for rapid patient access that will deliver long-term commercial success for our pain franchise. To that end, while still just a few days into the launch, we believe that the incredibly broad positive media coverage JOURNAVX has received since approval is one measure of the high unmet need and an indication of the societal importance of providing both physicians and patients with a new non-opioid option for the treatment of acute pain. We've already seen tremendous interest and requests for information from both doctors and patients, and we look forward to being able to serve them. Our 150 person sales force is actively engaging with healthcare providers and physicians on the compelling efficacy and safety data of JOURNAVX and its role in all types of moderate-to-severe acute pain. In the institutional setting, we are engaging with roughly 2,000 high-volume hospitals and approximately 150 related health systems. We have line of sight to accelerate the typical P&T (pharmacy & therapeutics) committee processes in many networks to support the use of JOURNAVX in this setting. We are advancing our discussions with national and regional payers and group purchasing organisations to provide access to JOURNAVX, building on our work pre-approval to accelerate formula reviews and limit inappropriate utilization management controls. And lastly, with retail pharmacies, we are working to secure broad stocking agreements at national retail pharmacies and regional chains to ensure availability of JOURNAVX for patients across the country. We have also now begun our non-personal promotional initiatives to physicians and patients to promote broad awareness of the first, oral, non-opioid pain signal inhibitor for moderate-to-severe acute pain, such as embedded content in relevant websites like Medscape for physicians and WebMD for consumers, along with point-of-care marketing.

Over 50% of the value of the company is AWS-maybe 65% AWS generates approx 28.7b and earns 10.5(quarter) Azure generates about 24.5b(less than AWS) but also earns 10.5b Similar money makers similar growth. Msft earns significantly more money overall-circa 50%+ more.

The drug cost > $1B to develop so the price (in the US $3.1M) needs to recover this cost and make a profit. Sickle Cell disease is a terrible illness(genetic) often leading to poor quality of life and shortened life expectancy . Many who suffer from it have regular hospitalisation so you need to factor in the large cost over a number of years vs the upfront cost now coupled with the pain and suffering. The reality is, you've read the headline. They will probably only process a handful of patients a year-there will be a budget. Vertex is not like most drug companies. Their charter is to work in the field of transformative medicines. Medicines that improve healthcare outcomes through discovery and technology. The hard stuff.

Just to add to Adams description and detail, the name is an indicator of your intention for access to the funds. If you intend to take it all, or a big chunk at a given date in the future, you may choose withdrawal, as you intend to withdraw the funds, and so we progress to a defensive position to stabilise the funds ready for withdrawal. If you intend to access the funds in chunks over time or draw an income, then you may chose income. In this case we look to stabilise a proportion of the funds ready for you to draw as income while allowing the rest to continue to seek growth ready to be accessed at a later date

Hi, Our MM product is very short duration, something like 30 days or less on average so yes. The choppy US market is due to their economy being too strong for the feds liking, as it relates to labour markets and the effect on inflation. We are not talking raging inflation either, just a bit higher than ideal. Corporate earnings have never been better. Interest rates are not even that high. We aren't going back to Covid rates nor have higher rates had any real impact on company earnings.

Hi-it was 45%

We will publish something at the year end, given we are so close now. The file Nik refers to is model performance which will vary from actual portfolio performance because it is calculated month to month based on the model weights whereas in reality the daily real performance uses actual moving weights.. In a rising market it will understate the growth by 1-3%. Performance from the top is Tech, Lifestyle Growth, IM 100, Equity. The same applies to FX, month to month is not the same as daily because again, the compounding effect can either amplify or offset the overall monthly growth rate depending on the direction and magnitude on a daily basis. You also have what is called the 'Base Effect' where daily fx moves are relative to the prior day whilst monthly moves compare longer periods. When I state returns, they are actual portfolio returns. The Fact sheets use a point to point monthly performance. Hope that makes sense . The fact sheets(to November) are here near the bottom of the page https://www.cobensdirect.co.uk/literature-library

You aren't wrong O! How can the West compete when, for example, we have min wages/conditions, limits on fossil fuel use and regulations which others may even sign up to but simple ignore them. It's not a level playing field. We could go on however this is a great job for DT to get stuck into And fishing vessels that catch more fibre optic cables than fish

Minor update: remember that token £1 which I moved to Schwab's UK bank account? It arrived back in our UK bank account yesterday, with a message saying something like "Transaction bounced". I guess something went wrong somewhere so I'll chalk this one up as 'one of those things' and have another go (perhaps). Perhaps with £100 this time, which is hopefully enough not to get lost. Thanks for your help.

Earlier week at the Open AI summit, OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman said their next advancement(Model) released in 2025 will be more disruptive than most people expect. 'The industry will see the first examples of AGI in 2025 and will use different tools to achieve complete it. Alman added that initially the impact on humanity will be minimal but in time will become intense. 'In 2025 we will have systems that people will say 'wow, this changes what I expected'. Altman added that in time AGI will bring significant human job displacement. It will be transformative to economies.

Thanks Adam.

Hi Adam, hope all good with you. Interesting stuff above in your post, thanks, I’ve learnt a little bit there!