Investments and Portfolios

Turns out China’s CXMT playing hardball on DRAM prices is actually good news for Samsung, SK Hynix (and by extension Micron) – not the threat people expected.Apple was eyeing CXMT as a cheap alternative source for mobile DRAM like LPDDR5X to cut costs on the next iPhones and gadgets. But CXMT flat-out refused further discounts and is sticking to prices the same as or higher than Samsung and SK. Apple, usually the big buyer that can force prices down, just got stonewalled.Why? Chinese giants like Huawei and Xiaomi have already snapped up most of CXMT’s output with expensive long-term deals. They’re pushing hard for domestic supply because of the ongoing US sanctions, so CXMT doesn’t need Apple’s business at a cut-price rate.That old Apple trick of dangling cheap Chinese parts to squeeze better deals out of the big suppliers has stopped working. At the same time the major memory makers have shifted loads of capacity over to high-value AI stuff like HBM. Commodity DRAM (DDR5, LPDDR5X) is tighter, prices are climbing, and the usual cheap workaround has vanished.CXMT soaking up the China-side commodity demand means Samsung and SK are off the hook for flooding the market with low-margin chips. They’re free to pour everything into premium AI memory – HBM4, LPCAMM2, enterprise SSDs and the rest. With commodity prices held up by CXMT and the Big Three owning the high-end, their pricing power and margins look set to get even stronger in the second half.

The comments from Google DeepMind executives suggest the company believes a significant AI capability leap is approaching. The current wave of AI investment is not simply about expanding existing applications; it is aimed at reaching the next stage where AI systems increasingly help create better AI systems through recursive self-improvement (RSI). RSI means AI models assisting with research, software development, optimisation, training methods and data generation, creating a feedback loop where improved AI accelerates the development of even better AI. Google’s view is that the foundations of this process are already emerging, and betting against the current AI buildout would be unwise. The scale of spending reinforces this confidence. The major technology companies are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure. Industry AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $700bn in 2026 after more than $400bn in 2025, with Google alone forecasting around $195bn-$205bn of 2026 capex. This investment covers GPUs, advanced memory, networking, data centres and power infrastructure required for the next generation of AI. While revenues currently lag behind investment, this reflects a transition phase where infrastructure is being built ahead of widespread adoption. The comparison with previous industrial revolutions suggests the largest economic benefits may appear after the technology platform is established. The next 12-36 months are likely to see major improvements in AI agents, coding ability, research assistance and automation. If AI systems begin materially accelerating AI development itself, progress could become much faster later this decade, potentially marking one of the biggest technological shifts in history.

You can choose any number of reasons why occasionally markets ‘lose their mind’, like sk Hynix trading at a 5 pe, reporting 557% growth and the headline is ‘they missed’. The only ‘miss’ was the opportunity. When a business grows at 557% you don’t get to say they missed anything when you’re valuing it at virtually nothing. A peg of .01.

@Slow-Horses As Adam says on the dashboard, scroll down to transfers and add new transfer and follow the process If you need any help drop me a message, nik.burrows@cobensdirect.co.uk Cheers

Reporting tonight. I think it will be a record: Consensus: ~$117B revenue and ~$2.88 EPS. I expect: ~$120B revenue and ~$3.10 EPS. I expect Google Cloud growth of 65–70%. AI capex. I expect another increase. Something north of $100B annualised, $25B next Q+. I expect HBM memory to get a shout out Net Income from operations circa $37B +$20B unrealised gain from investments. NB- The above is operational. In addition they will likely report a circa $20B gain on SpaceX mark to market The headline might state $5 ish-if it does that include the revaluation of the SpaceX holding.

Nokia (NOK) said it has developed the telecom industry's first commercial artificial intelligence-powered radio access network (AI-RAN) platform in collaboration with Nvidia (NVDA), a move aimed at significantly increasing the amount of data mobile operators can transmit over their existing network infrastructure. The development comes less than 10 months after the two companies announced a strategic partnership, which also included Nvidia taking an equity stake in the Finnish telecom equipment maker. Built on Nokia's AI-native anyRAN software and Nvidia's Aerial AI-RAN platform, the new system is expected to deliver more than a 100% improvement in spectral efficiency by 2028, effectively doubling the capacity of existing spectrum assets without requiring operators to acquire additional spectrum licences. The platform has already demonstrated more than 20% gains in spectral efficiency through AI-driven radio innovations, Nokia said in a statement on Wednesday. Nokia's AI-RAN solutions will enter pilot deployments later this year before becoming commercially available in 2027, with a roadmap built around Nvidia's programmable silicon platforms. "Telecommunications is entering the AI era — the radio access network is the next AI infrastructure," said Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang. "Together with Nokia, we are bringing NVIDIA CUDA and AI into the baseband, transforming RAN into a planet-scale AI computer. This is a generational shift for operators — unlocking more capacity and efficiency from today's spectrum while creating the foundation for new AI services and the 6G era." The announcement positions Nokia at the forefront of one of the telecom industry's biggest technological shifts. If the promised efficiency gains are achieved in commercial networks, operators could dramatically increase network capacity while reducing the need for costly infrastructure upgrades and additional spectrum purchases.

ok thanks M

News out-a good example of how based on evidence, Broadcom had the wind at its back Apple (AAPL) has signed a new multi-year agreement with Broadcom (AVGO) worth more than US$30bn, marking its largest commitment under its American Manufacturing Programme. The deal will see Broadcom produce more than 15bn US-made chips through 2031, expand its Fort Collins, Colorado facility with a US$1.5bn investment, and support hundreds of American jobs. The company will supply custom silicon, including advanced RF components and wireless connectivity technologies for future Apple products.

@Adam-Kay said in KLA: It does and we paid $33 +821.1% RTQ

@Adam-Kay ouch! That is a hefty price ramp for those of us who are into the Apple ecosystem Luckily we refreshed some kit a year ago….I was toying with replacing my aging iPad, but perhaps I will bludgeon on for another 10 years Or maybe cash in some of the ISA to “use the profits”

@Nik-Burrows said in New Portfolio Switching Changes?: @xera Unless otherwise instructed and agreed the switch will be processed on the next switch date i.e. the 1st or the 14th of the month Cheers Thanks that answers it for me.

It’s performed well, Pete. Its valuation is too extreme for me, though. Corning, Marvell, AVGO are also in the mix re photonics, optical/laser transceivers.

yes of course. The Target Date only maps the portfolio. Thereafter it's up to 'you'. Add, withdraw subject to wrapper of course(SIPP), switch to something else. To be clear you are not locked-in in anyway

The Amazon<>Anthropic deal looks interesting ! Happy to see Anthropic forking nicely from openai....

Oracle has expanded its partnership with Bloom Energy to secure up to 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of Bloom’s fuel cell systems to support the growth of its AI data centre infrastructure. For perspective, 2.8GW is enough to power 7 million UK homes! A staggering amount of energy.

In a blog post today Meta Platforms (META) has increased the investment for its data centre campus in El Paso, Texas, to $10B from $1.5B. They aren't playing.

It's a great business albeit not that exciting-safe and durable. Their scale and reach opens them up to finding something to complain about-at the end of the day they are a business, they have millions of customers. Some won't be happy customers. Apple gets a lot of flack from some too. Ive always found them a pleasure to deal with. In saying that ive never had a piece of expensive hardware fail prematurely and tried to get some goodwill but I have dealt with their support relating to products many years outside warranty(without Apple Care) and always found them helpful.

Vertex have a good track record. We can't ever expect anything more that 'could, might, maybe'. It's still a drug trial. Nothing is certain until it's approved and commercialised. Vertex specialise in what is called Transformative therapies. Drugs which transform the pathway of a disease from mere managing symptoms to a long term cure/outcome. It's nice to know we invest in something that improves peoples quality of like. More specifically Vertex focus on genetic diseases (gene editing) In terms of success from drug trials. At phase 1 statistically, the odds of success sit at 10-15%. At the conclusion of a successful phase 3 trial-and the results were not just positive, they were extremely positive, the odds increase to 85-90% so I am confident they are onto something. There are many more drugs in their pipeline-Diabetes is the next potential break-through

Anyone who holds a portfolio and has questions can contact either myself and or Nik. Many have. Discussions around suitability are very individual specific due to goals, age, risk appetite and time to retirement/time to draw down.

Hi Ollie, I don't follow 'Defence' stocks generally as they rely on wars being waged. My area is growth/tech which has outperformed defence over any meaningful time frame. If you want to seek out defence funds there are a couple of global ETFs you can google.