Samsung will commence production of OLED screens in Q4, which will be used in Apple's first foldable phone-scheduled for release in H2, 2026. Expect the iPhone foldable to retail for circa £2K!

[image: 1752008406996-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-21.58.29.png] [image: 1752009728777-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-22.21.40.png] [image: 1752008414965-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-21.58.47.png] [image: 1752008440481-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-21.59.01.png] [image: 1752008458610-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-21.59.21.png] [image: 1752008470625-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-21.59.38.png] [image: 1752008582216-screenshot-2025-07-08-at-22.02.41.png]

Following on from the above it has been confirmed that OpenAi Stargate is the Oracle customer-they have signed a deal for 4.6GW of compute. An enormous amount and the biggest ever contract for data centre HPC. Oracle-cloud revenue today is running at around $11B/annum and this will add $30B starting in 2028. As part of the deal oracle will invest $40 billion of its own money and the rest likely from other Stargate partners. As per Jensen 1GW = $40B revenue to Nvidia and as we can see this is 4.6GW and equates to at least 30,000 racks. My take on this- it confirms the narrative that Nvidia are just getting started. Secondly, first move to Oracle/Openai. What will MSFT/AWS/GOOG/Meta/XAI do to defend their position? Answer-very likely accelerate and expand their plans materially. They have to. Winners will certainly be: MU NVDA SMCI AVGO ORCL

Hi Mazza LTA allowances are not overly relevant now, it is the "lump sum allowance" (LSA) that is now more applicable. Tax free cash is now capped at either 25% of your pension value or £268,275 which ever is the lower, unless you have some form of pension protection place. Drop me a message at nik.burrows@cobensdirect.co.uk and let me know what you need. Cheers Nik

From JP Morgan: AMZN has grown its Advertising Services revenue from ~$13B in 2019 to ~$56B in 2024, implying a +39% CAGR. The success of Amazon’s Advertising Services business highlights key advantages AMZN & retailers have over GOOGL & META. According to WSJ, AMZN has deployed more than one million robots in facilities, which is the most it has ever had and near the count of human workers at the facilities.

FYI: PNL changes for yesterday: Equity +2% Tech +0.18% Lifestyle +0.67%

Cheers Nik No urgency at all, I have another question, I shall ping off an email to you in the morning again no urgency on it

Colossus-2 expansion to 1 million GPUs gets closer....... xAI is raising $25 billion, comprising $5 billion in debt through Morgan Stanley (a term loan B, fixed-rate term loan, and senior secured notes) to fund the Colossus supercomputer with commitments due by June 17, 2025. Additionally, xAI is seeking $20 billion in equity at a valuation between $120 billion and $200 billion to support its growth.

Interesting update which is a big positive for companies like Oracle. 'You can have our tech if we manage it' -seems to be a link to Stagate/open AI for countries. Quoted from a news wire below New AI Diffusion Rule is COMING SOON and New Version Will Let Allies Buy US Chips With Conditions The Commerce Department is drafting a replacement for its recently repealed AI diffusion rule to ensure the new controls don’t impede U.S. exports to allies, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said June 4. “Our view is we are going to allow our allies to buy AI chips provided they’re run by an approved American data center operator and the cloud that touches that data center is an approved American operator, so we control it while it’s over there,” Lutnick testified before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and Science. The rule that was rescinded last month (see 2505130018) was “very confusing,” Lutnick said. “For example, the prime minister of Poland hunted me down and said, ‘What did I ever do to you that you have me as a Tier 3’ country, the most stringent of three tiers? ‘I’m part of Europe -- what are you doing?’ It was illogical. It was hastily rushed through at the very end of the Biden administration.” He expects Commerce will release the new AI diffusion rule soon. “I can’t say with more specificity but pretty soon,” he said.

The previously posted tables containing predicted min Blackwell (packaged) chips has proven very accurate in fact we also said TSMC would likely find additional capacity(and apparently they have). And from that we forecast the revenue growth, knowing what they sell these chips for. The start of Blackwell was clunky due to the transition from Hopper because Hopper was packaged on the 'S' line and Blackwell on the 'L' line and there were some heating issues which is no surprise because it was all very new. We predicted about $10 billion Q o Q growth vs $4-5B during Hoppers reign. We are now at this point today. Blackwell is bug free and at ramping as fast as CoWoS will allow. This is the old schedule by quarter in 000's: [image: 1748798151117-screenshot-2025-06-01-at-18.14.59.png] . TSMC have indicated circa 500k chips per month and growing from June. They are all sold(5-10X). Losing China completely, and it wont be but let's just ignore it all together. All that has happened is we take the hit and next quarter they achieve $47B and the next $57, $67, $77 and so on. The only caveat is that when Rubin arrives at year end, Dec/Jan they will add further revenue to each quarter simply due to the ASP of Rubin being higher-so id expect $12-$13B q o q increases. Next year automotive will be meaningful as all car makers equip their cars with ADAS and robotics/omniverse will start adding revenues-the q o q rhythm will grow again. But this is exactly how I see their revenue grow over time. A very long time and yes I expect 100B+ per quarter some time at the end of next year or Q1 the following. And to anyone who thinks they will have transition issues again, well, Rubin and Rubin Ultra are all packaged on the same line so the transition will be seamless . It is not until 2027 that packaging will move to a new process called Sow-X which is when the real party starts. We are looking at racks 40X more powerful than today's. Racks containing 500 chips and consuming 1 megawatt each and could cost $20M or more. This is the roadmap from 2027 to 29. The experts have been predicting a plateau in revenue for over a year now-remember Cathy Wood and the 'Dean of Valuation'. They were all wrong and continue to be so. Cisco-look at Cisco. A very scientific analogy. Exciting times ahead imo.

The stock doesn’t fit out criteria and moving 100% in a day doesn’t make it attractive. Odds are it will fade over the coming weeks. It’s very small, no track record, loses money and will be extremely volatile. And to add something you have to make a call on what to sell. That’s not to say it can’t go higher.

Morning, Air time is driven by: Weight or our position vs the market position. We were contrarians with SMCI (still are). SMCI drives a lot of opinion! The significance of the company vs the sector Companies driving change/innovation (driving news) My personal interests-and what I think others find interesting-esoteric sectors Cobens has 20k clients and we managed 3X more assets than IM before the rescue I appreciate that we talk about Tech a lot and a couple of holdings in particular. The fact is Nvidia drives/is a barometer of the wider sector(and the market) and what is good/bad for Nvidia impacts other big names.

[image: 1746432733880-screenshot-2025-05-05-at-09.10.05.png]

Done! Thanks Nik.

Working tonight

Hi D, Netflix is set to drop its Q1 2025 earnings after the market shuts on 17 April. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) will hit $5.74, up 8.7% from $5.28 last year, with revenue expected at $10.54 billion, a 12.5% jump year-on-year. That’s pretty close to Netflix’s own forecast of $10.46 billion in revenue and an operating margin of 28.2%. They’ve got a history of smashing EPS forecasts, beating expectations in all four of the last reported quarters, like Q4 2024 when they pulled off $4.27 against $4.20 expected. That said, it's hard to know but their numbers should be solid. Everyone’s eyeing their ad-supported memberships, which made up 55% of sign-ups in ad markets last quarter, and their content line-up, with several content hits. They won’t disclose subscriber numbers anymore, focusing on revenue and margins instead.

Here is a complete list of ALL notable Robotics players. See the common thread? [image: 1744622289650-screenshot-2025-04-14-at-10.15.51.png]

SK hynix raises its 2025 CAPEX from $15 billion to $19 billion. SK Hynix has decided to increase its planned CAPEX this year by 30% due to the surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which was already high. The chipmaker initially planned to spend 22 trillion won this year in expanding its facilities but this has been upped to 29 trillion won, sources said. The decision was recently finalised and SK Hynix has also sent memos to suppliers to deliver the equipment to the M15X fab in Chungju by October, two months faster than initially planned. These moves are all responses from its customers requesting SK Hynix deliver more HBM chips faster. The company’s main customer is Nvidia, which is using HBM with its AI accelerators. The GPU giant is requesting SK Hynix deliver HBM faster than planned. SK Hynix will also be supplying HBMs to Broadcom starting this year. We are reading the room, folks. Demand is off the hook and I would speculate, supply is also improving. Whilst the market is distracted by and shunning everything due to tariffs speculation, these businesses are clearly articulating a shift.