@Adam-Kay Thanks, the immediate problem (in my mind) has been resolved. It's now a different problem, which I trust that Nik is resolving off line. Thanks for lowering my blood pressure with the reassurances about the legitimacy of the e-mail. That was my main concern. G

[image: 1746082603566-screenshot-2025-05-01-at-07.55.57.png] Management Perspective Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg outlined five key prospects fuelled by AI investments: enhanced advertising, immersive experiences, business messaging, advancements in Meta AI, and AI-powered devices. He highlighted a 5% rise in ad conversions driven by an updated recommendation model for Reels and a 30% surge in advertisers adopting AI creative tools. The company reported significant growth in Threads, now surpassing 350 million monthly active users, and underscored AI’s role in boosting Facebook engagement by 7% and Instagram by 6%. Zuckerberg noted progress with Meta AI, which has nearly one billion active users, with plans to prioritise scaling and deepening user interaction before monetisation. Sales of new AI-enabled Ray-Ban glasses tripled year-on-year. Finance Director Susan Li reported total revenue of $42.3 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with operating profit of $17.6 billion and a 41% operating margin. Free cash flow reached $10.3 billion, and the company repurchased $13.4 billion in shares. Outlook Meta projects Q2 2025 revenue of $42.5 billion to $45.5 billion, supported by a 1% currency tailwind. Full-year 2025 expenditure is forecast to range from $113 billion to $118 billion, reduced from previous guidance. Capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has risen to $64 billion to $72 billion, largely due to data centre investments and elevated infrastructure costs. The company expects tax rates for 2025 to be between 12% and 15%. Financial Performance Q1 revenue totalled $42.3 billion, with advertising revenue contributing $41.4 billion, up 16% year-on-year. Strong performance was noted in North America and Rest of World regions. The Family of Apps generated $41.9 billion in revenue, while Reality Labs revenue fell 6% to $412 million due to lower Meta Quest sales. Total operating costs rose by 9%, driven by increased infrastructure and compensation expenses, though general and administrative costs dropped by 34%. The company closed Q1 with $70.2 billion in cash and marketable securities. The average price per advert increased by 10%, with advert impressions growing by 5%. Q&A Session Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley: Enquired about progress with AI models like Llama 4 and Meta AI usage trends. Zuckerberg explained that Llama 4 is optimised for low latency and tailored interactions. Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs: Asked about the standalone Meta AI app. Zuckerberg emphasised its role in securing U.S. leadership and standing out through personalisation. Justin Post, Bank of America: Questioned Q2 guidance amid e-commerce trends and rising CapEx. Li confirmed the guidance reflects solid revenue trends and highlighted increased infrastructure investments. Analysts raised concerns about CapEx intensity and recruitment. Management reaffirmed its focus on AI infrastructure and technical talent to support strategic priorities. Sentiment Analysis Analysts voiced concerns about high CapEx and the timeline for AI monetisation but recognised strong engagement and revenue growth. Management expressed confidence in AI-driven growth opportunities, with Zuckerberg highlighting AI’s transformative potential and stressing efficient investments. Compared to the prior quarter, discussions maintained a consistent focus on AI and infrastructure, with an optimistic outlook for long-term growth. Quarter-on-Quarter Comparison Revenue guidance for Q2 2025 rose from Q1’s $39.5 billion–$41.8 billion range. Expenditure guidance was lowered compared to the previous quarter, reflecting refined projections. CapEx outlook for 2025 increased from $60 billion–$65 billion due to accelerated data centre investments. Continued emphasis on AI advancements, with Threads and Meta AI showing notable user growth compared to the prior quarter. Final Takeaway Meta Platforms delivered a robust Q1 2025 with $42.3 billion in revenue and strong growth across its AI-driven initiatives. The company increased its CapEx outlook to support AI and data infrastructure while reducing full-year expenditure guidance. With confident projections for Q2 2025 revenue and growing user engagement in apps like Threads and Meta AI, Meta is positioning itself for sustained growth despite regulatory challenges.

@pete_esp Hi Pete Drop me a message and we can set a call up. Let me know when you're in the Valley and we can get a couple of laps in. Cheers Nik

@Ducati996R Hi Clive drop me a message nik.burrows@cobensdirect.co.uk Cheers

Which is what I said over on PH. Discussed with Nik and it was something outside of IM control. Processes of the Custodians I think, maybe it can be fixed now

@dingg said in Micron report and general tech news: Thanks Adam Wondered why klac was looking a bit perky on the premarket. As are some others, could be a bit of a good day if it carries through to the close Ah well, another kick in the balls, smci potential dodgy dealings pulling the rug on semis, this time next year Rodney

@slatermethuen I'll let the Dev team know and we will take a look at MoneyHub Given the work we have the go I would think it will be a new year task, but we will keep it on the radar Nik

A solid result from Vertex, meeting expectations and guiding higher for the current year. The main focus being their newly approved pain therapy. Here are some notes taken from the conference call. It's a very big market and this drug will be a 'Blockbuster'-revenue greater than $1B and annually, once it gets known/established. We have a holding cost of $256. The current price is $470, as such the IC is very pleased with the company performance. Vertex has a bright future ahead of itself-improving patients qualify of life and earning shareholders healthy profits along the way. A win-win as they say. JOURNAVX in acute pain as we are currently 10 days post the milestone approval of this first selective, oral, non-opioid pain signal inhibitor. The approval is so critical because JOURNAVX represents the first new class of pain medicine in over 20 years. It combines effective pain relief with a favourable safety profile. And based on its MOA(mechanism of action), it does not have addiction potential. It is indicated for use across all types of moderate-to-severe acute pain. For example, post-surgery, broken bones, sports injuries and has the potential to establish a new standard of care for the 80 million patients, who seek a prescription therapy to treat moderate-to-severe acute pain each year in the U.S. Half of those seeking help for their acute pain or approximately 40 million Americans each year are prescribed opioids, which although effective have significant safety and tolerability concerns and addictive potential. In fact, tragically, an estimated 85,000 people each year will develop opioid use disorder within the first year of being prescribed an opioid for acute pain. We believe we now have the opportunity to transform how acute pain is treated in the U.S. and to build another multi-billion dollar franchise for Vertex. We are launch ready and have now begun commercialisation of JOURNAVX. Our focus for 2025 is to engage with healthcare professionals, decision-makers and payers to establish the conditions for rapid patient access that will deliver long-term commercial success for our pain franchise. To that end, while still just a few days into the launch, we believe that the incredibly broad positive media coverage JOURNAVX has received since approval is one measure of the high unmet need and an indication of the societal importance of providing both physicians and patients with a new non-opioid option for the treatment of acute pain. We've already seen tremendous interest and requests for information from both doctors and patients, and we look forward to being able to serve them. Our 150 person sales force is actively engaging with healthcare providers and physicians on the compelling efficacy and safety data of JOURNAVX and its role in all types of moderate-to-severe acute pain. In the institutional setting, we are engaging with roughly 2,000 high-volume hospitals and approximately 150 related health systems. We have line of sight to accelerate the typical P&T (pharmacy & therapeutics) committee processes in many networks to support the use of JOURNAVX in this setting. We are advancing our discussions with national and regional payers and group purchasing organisations to provide access to JOURNAVX, building on our work pre-approval to accelerate formula reviews and limit inappropriate utilization management controls. And lastly, with retail pharmacies, we are working to secure broad stocking agreements at national retail pharmacies and regional chains to ensure availability of JOURNAVX for patients across the country. We have also now begun our non-personal promotional initiatives to physicians and patients to promote broad awareness of the first, oral, non-opioid pain signal inhibitor for moderate-to-severe acute pain, such as embedded content in relevant websites like Medscape for physicians and WebMD for consumers, along with point-of-care marketing.

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The previously posted tables containing predicted min Blackwell (packaged) chips has proven very accurate in fact we also said TSMC would likely find additional capacity(and apparently they have). And from that we forecast the revenue growth, knowing what they sell these chips for. The start of Blackwell was clunky due to the transition from Hopper because Hopper was packaged on the 'S' line and Blackwell on the 'L' line and there were some heating issues which is no surprise because it was all very new. We predicted about $10 billion Q o Q growth vs $4-5B during Hoppers reign. We are now at this point today. Blackwell is bug free and at ramping as fast as CoWoS will allow. This is the old schedule by quarter in 000's: [image: 1748798151117-screenshot-2025-06-01-at-18.14.59.png] . TSMC have indicated circa 500k chips per month and growing from June. They are all sold(5-10X). Losing China completely, and it wont be but let's just ignore it all together. All that has happened is we take the hit and next quarter they achieve $47B and the next $57, $67, $77 and so on. The only caveat is that when Rubin arrives at year end, Dec/Jan they will add further revenue to each quarter simply due to the ASP of Rubin being higher-so id expect $12-$13B q o q increases. Next year automotive will be meaningful as all car makers equip their cars with ADAS and robotics/omniverse will start adding revenues-the q o q rhythm will grow again. But this is exactly how I see their revenue grow over time. A very long time and yes I expect 100B+ per quarter some time at the end of next year or Q1 the following. And to anyone who thinks they will have transition issues again, well, Rubin and Rubin Ultra are all packaged on the same line so the transition will be seamless . It is not until 2027 that packaging will move to a new process called Sow-X which is when the real party starts. We are looking at racks 40X more powerful than today's. Racks containing 500 chips and consuming 1 megawatt each and could cost $20M or more. This is the roadmap from 2027 to 29. The experts have been predicting a plateau in revenue for over a year now-remember Cathy Wood and the 'Dean of Valuation'. They were all wrong and continue to be so. Cisco-look at Cisco. A very scientific analogy. Exciting times ahead imo.

Thanks Nik and of course I take on board your comments on Protection. In normal circumstances that would be the sensible approach. A Chancellor that has no qualms about shafting a Pensioner on £13k pa will not think twice about targeting people with larger pension pots.

Much better now thanks

@uk66fastback If you can send me a message, nik.burrows@cobensdirect.co.uk i will take a look for you Cheers Nik

Thanks Adam.

Thanks for the confirmation. It works just as I thought. Better to ask to confirm than just assume I'm correct. A small mistake can make a big difference.

We will publish something at the year end, given we are so close now. The file Nik refers to is model performance which will vary from actual portfolio performance because it is calculated month to month based on the model weights whereas in reality the daily real performance uses actual moving weights.. In a rising market it will understate the growth by 1-3%. Performance from the top is Tech, Lifestyle Growth, IM 100, Equity. The same applies to FX, month to month is not the same as daily because again, the compounding effect can either amplify or offset the overall monthly growth rate depending on the direction and magnitude on a daily basis. You also have what is called the 'Base Effect' where daily fx moves are relative to the prior day whilst monthly moves compare longer periods. When I state returns, they are actual portfolio returns. The Fact sheets use a point to point monthly performance. Hope that makes sense . The fact sheets(to November) are here near the bottom of the page https://www.cobensdirect.co.uk/literature-library

Thanks for the replies and sorry I missed your call earlier Adam. I'll give you a bell in the morning. Cheers all, have a good evening.

If there is a tariff on phones, Apple will raise global prices to smooth the spikes. It’s not a sustainable model so best to ignore it as yet about pet project of DT. With earnings next week(Nvidia) it’s all eyes elsewhere.

Hi @iestyn and @Slow-Horses We charge a flat rate of £350 for all the research, application, and delivery. For all forum members that join before Christmas we will reduce that to £250. Our mortgage advisers are independent and conduct their research through the whole of the market. They will try and do everything for you and chase through to conclusion. If you would like to speak to them at any point you can contact them on 01622 522785. Alternatively if you have any general questions feel free to post here and we will try and answer.

@VvrooomM said in To use an IFA or not use an IFA: Age 52.5, possibly planning to retire in the next couple of years. Can’t begin drawdown until 55 obviously but have some savings to bridge the gap. Do I need an IFA though, would it be wise/prudent to have one? Got my fingers burnt with the last one that was absolutely useless. I have my person split between IM/CD and ii, my investments are self chosen with my ongoing costs being circa 0.82% with IM/CD and 0.22% with ii per annum. Thanks for the thoughts in advance. Hi VvrooomM If you want to look at guidance first drop me a message and we can set a call/meeting up. We can then chat through what you are looking to do, what things you may need to consider and the options available. If you feel that you have enough information and understanding after that to make your own decisions and plans then you may decide that you don't need advice If you're still not sure after that you can either then take some advice from us or find another IFA. I would hope that at that point, if feel you need advice you will know what you are looking for from an adviser. Cheers Nik