Nvidia News
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China has approved the first official imports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, reversing an earlier de-facto blockade at customs. That’s a big shift — Beijing had been blocking physical shipments even after the U.S. gave export permission.
The approval covers hundreds of thousands of chips, with ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent cleared to buy a combined ~400,000+ H200 units.
Other Chinese companies are reportedly waiting in line for subsequent approvals — but the total number that will get licensed is still unknown.
The move came during a visit by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to China, underscoring the political timing.
This isn’t just a supply issue — it’s a policy shift in how China deals with foreign high-end chips.It's speculated that Nvidia have 700k H200 in hand and I would expect these orders to be booked in Q1 so theoretically they should be included in the Q1 guide, reported along side their Q4 earnings next month(which end 30 January). 400k chips would equate to around $13-$14B + memory and ancillary components+ tariff(25%)
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Big numbers. Thanks Adam.
The thing that slightly bothers me with Nvidia is that they seem to be too good to be true. And we all know the phrase that applies when that's the case. They are sitting pretty having created the biggest ticket in the fattest technological revolution since the internet, in the juiciest industrial advance since the industrial revolution, and have a stranglehold on the good stuff so tight the established players can't even see which way they are going. Every man and his dog who thinks they want a slice of the AI pie are queuing around the block to buy their chips and they are selling things now that won't exist for another year, given the demand.
What are the chinks in their armour? What could go wrong? What are the risks? Huang is a seriously clever guy, and his brains are matched with a conservative integrity that is most appealing in business - what happens if he slips and falls under a big red bus? What if China does invade Taiwan? What if someone magics up some new technology (Organic Computing? Spintronics?) which stands the world on it's ear and makes everything we currently use redundant? What if aliens invade and .... essentially, what could go wrong?
I hear and understand the argument that says that if China invades Taiwan then we probably will have bigger things to worry about that the value of share portfolios, but the general question stands; where could it go wrong?
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Some fair points.
My concern is more around I how much of the AI growth is actually vendors just moving things around.
The sort of picture drawn hereI don’t think it is just that…but I still feel we have road bumps ahead.
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Bear in mind Nvidia owns 10% of Coreweave so if it chooses to fund them $2B I don't have a problem with it. The naysayers will obviously-no surprises there. We paid $25 for a stock which is close to $200. We got in a long time ago so whilst im sure anyone who is negative on tech would say 'well you've done well cos nvidia'-being somewhat predictable. It reminds of someone who last year and the prior year commented on our tech portfolio saying 'it's tech of course it's done well' as if to suggest it's just expected and they all do that-they don't.
Jensen Huang has done right by us, consistently being right and seeing this revolution a decade before anyone else. the internet is full of opinions, largely sour grapes and broken clocks. The facts remain the product is in very high demand and will be for the next 2 years at least-that is as far as we can reliably see.
The company makes so much money it would seem only natural to re-invest in the sectors they themselves think will prosper. And why not. Does anyone really think £2B is material to Nvidia. Does anyone think they are running out of customers such that they need creative ways to sell GPU's? NB_they are not loans. It's equity.
At the end of the day it is your decision to make. We can give you our thoughts and some hard facts and you weigh the evidence.
If you worry about hypotheticals, china, huang, an earth quake wiping out TSM then maybe Mcdonalds stock is also a risk because all the cows might get BSE or Vegans take over the world ;). DT nationalises KO?
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Reported today by SemiAnalyis: Vera Rubin is going to be a game changer.
IMPORTANT: NVIDIA announced that their compute tray assembly time fell by 36x from 2 hours to 5 minutes due to the new VR200(Vera Rubin) cableless & hose less design.
NVIDIA follows the footsteps of AWS Trainium2/3 cableless design that lead to faster manufacturing time & full automation as robotics still have a difficult time plugging cables into the correct ports. Note that due to the strength of NVIDIA's world class serdes team, they are able to have cableless NVswitch trays too without any retimers leading to faster assembly for switch trays too.
In contrast, due to AMD's lack of rack scale experience, they did not opt for abolded text** cableless design which will lead to slower production ramp for rack & tray assembly.** Furthermore, even though on the UALoE switch side they are using Broadcom serdes switches, due to the weakness of the AMD's in house 224G serdes which is used on the GPU side, in addition to retimers, AMD switch tray requires tons of flyover cables which will lead to slow rack production ramp and as seen in GB200 switch tray are prone to errors due to the tight tolerances required.
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Developing story…. NVDA: Mercedes, Nvidia, and Uber to partner on large-scale commercial robotaxi deployment. interesting
Also Amazon in talks to invest 50 billion in openai