Busy couple of weeks on results front
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I thought i'd bring any further Micron chat here, rather then clog up the rebalancing thread.
I wanted to add some context around the value of HBM(memory). Whilst difficult to nail down precise numbers on price. We believe AMD is paying around $110/GB.
A GB200 NVL72 rack. (72 GPU +36 Grace CPU) will need 30 Terra bytes of HBM. $330K in HBM for one rack! And Meta's new 2 GW DC will need something in the order of 20,000 racks. Big numbers.
Data transfer bandwidth is up to 16TB/s. In 1 second it could transfer the data from 16 1TB hard drives. Just staggering.
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Great day for Tech and Lifestyleyesterday-and no it wasn't driven by FX(which was around 48 bps). Tech +2.16%/IML 1.44%.
Cobens Tech is +7.8% YTD
Cobens Lifestyle +5.30% YTD
Cobens Equity +3.12% YTD -
Everyone holding the Tech portfolio should have received an email regarding the holding change.
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Twilio just reported, tumbling 10% on an average report with elevated valuationa-not good enough given the material reversion over the past 4 months. We sold it 2 weeks ago. Investing in Micron. Refer to the relevant thread .
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Morning,
Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:
Tech +12.7%
IML +6.7%
IMOP GG +4.23%
Index 100 +3.89%
Equity + 2.94%Fundsmith +4.32%
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SMCI will file any day now. Maybe Thursday-I say that because they won't file on a Friday. I have no doubts either way. And I am also highly confident the 10-k and 10-q(s) will be clean and unadjusted.
Nvidia are due to report in 1 week on the 26th. This of course will set the tone across the entire market and is the most important earnings in a very long time. It's very difficult to predict what they will have to say but one thing we do know. Blackwell production is in full swing-it will be the fastest ramp in their history. In my opinion the Q1 guide is far more important than the Q4 actual result. Expectations for Q4 are $38B and it's almost certain that will exceed this number. However with Blackwell supply being completely a guess it's impossible to know-no one does.
If the past repeats, we would expect Q1(guide) to be Q4 'actual' +$2B. I think this time will be different. I expect a guide of at least +$6B ahead of Q4-in fact my view is that Q4 actual+Q1 will get close to $100B in revenue. Q4 Gross margins will come in at around 73% and improve throughout 2025 as Blackwell yields naturally improve.
Looking fwd to updates on Blackwell Ultra which will be named B300 and perhaps some news on timing of Rubin(Blackwell Next). I read yesterday that Elliott Management (Paul Singer) has gone short Nvidia-good luck with that.
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Morning,
Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:
Tech +12.7%
IML +6.7%
IMOP GG +4.23%
Index 100 +3.89%
Equity + 2.94%Fundsmith +4.32%
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Hi Dingg, PHe is positive because it holds some tech. Netflix, Amzn and Apple do all the heavy lifting. The mandate won’t allow more sector weights. We are very vocal about the returns-there is no magic bullet. PHE has actually improved in the last 8 months.
We offer a wide range of portfolios and publish their returns and their holdings along with their mandates which can not be deviated from. We offer something for everyone. Some investors don’t like tech. Some like cash (MM). Some like the FTSE. It’s a self select model environment.
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PHE ended 2024 at +18-19% from memory. That was due to changes implemented August last year.
In 2023 it managed around +10%
In 2022 -ve 3%
2021 +8% -
Very busy 72 hours.
Any moment now we expect the SM 10-K along with 2 X 10-Q.The spectacle outweighs the content imo. And on Wednesday the most important earnings call of the last year will be delivered y Team Green (Nvidia).
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Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?
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Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?
@SunsetZed Adam jinxed it with an email he sent me a week ago!
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Hi A,
I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.
M, ok i won't do that again
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Thanks, so in a nutshell (if my little brain follows correctly) the good results were already priced in (possibly higher results were expected) hence the good results were not good enough to maintain the price that had been reached but if they keep delivering results like this (in terms of the increasing trajectory) the share price will go up further.
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From the Beeb just now
Trump suspends tariffs on most Mexican goods until 2 April after talks with country's president
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version. -
Indeed….& Canada too.
Maybe the stock market rapidly heading downhill might have finally got him to understand tariffs don’t lead to lower prices….or maybe being called out and having the sight of Canadian stores removing US goods & Trudeau immediately offering tariffs back finally got through
️Day 45 to this astonishing U-turn. He’s no Maggie, eh 🫣
Sure, he will frame this as a pause, not a U-turn….but let’s see. Trump is essentially a coward, a bully, & when faced with strong responses, backs down.
IMHO, of course.
