Skip to content
  • Categories
  • Recent
  • Tags
  • Popular
  • Users
  • Groups
Skins
  • Light
  • Cerulean
  • Cosmo
  • Flatly
  • Journal
  • Litera
  • Lumen
  • Lux
  • Materia
  • Minty
  • Morph
  • Pulse
  • Sandstone
  • Simplex
  • Sketchy
  • Spacelab
  • United
  • Yeti
  • Zephyr
  • Dark
  • Cyborg
  • Darkly
  • Quartz
  • Slate
  • Solar
  • Superhero
  • Vapor

  • Default (Simplex)
  • No Skin
Collapse
Cobens Direct
  1. Home
  2. Investments and Portfolios
  3. Busy couple of weeks on results front

Busy couple of weeks on results front

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
230 Posts 17 Posters 3.0k Views
  • Oldest to Newest
  • Newest to Oldest
  • Most Votes
Reply
  • Reply as topic
Log in to reply
This topic has been deleted. Only users with topic management privileges can see it.
  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote on last edited by
    #146

    I thought i'd bring any further Micron chat here, rather then clog up the rebalancing thread.

    I wanted to add some context around the value of HBM(memory). Whilst difficult to nail down precise numbers on price. We believe AMD is paying around $110/GB.

    A GB200 NVL72 rack. (72 GPU +36 Grace CPU) will need 30 Terra bytes of HBM. $330K in HBM for one rack! And Meta's new 2 GW DC will need something in the order of 20,000 racks. Big numbers.

    Data transfer bandwidth is up to 16TB/s. In 1 second it could transfer the data from 16 1TB hard drives. Just staggering.

    1 Reply Last reply
    2
    • A Offline
      A Offline
      Adam Kay
      Global Moderator
      wrote on last edited by
      #147

      Great day for Tech and Lifestyleyesterday-and no it wasn't driven by FX(which was around 48 bps). Tech +2.16%/IML 1.44%.

      Cobens Tech is +7.8% YTD
      Cobens Lifestyle +5.30% YTD
      Cobens Equity +3.12% YTD

      1 Reply Last reply
      2
      • A Offline
        A Offline
        Adam Kay
        Global Moderator
        wrote on last edited by
        #148

        Everyone holding the Tech portfolio should have received an email regarding the holding change.

        1 Reply Last reply
        3
        • A Offline
          A Offline
          Adam Kay
          Global Moderator
          wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
          #149

          Twilio just reported, tumbling 10% on an average report with elevated valuationa-not good enough given the material reversion over the past 4 months. We sold it 2 weeks ago. Investing in Micron. Refer to the relevant thread .

          1 Reply Last reply
          5
          • A Offline
            A Offline
            Adam Kay
            Global Moderator
            wrote on last edited by
            #150

            Morning,

            Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

            Tech +12.7%
            IML +6.7%
            IMOP GG +4.23%
            Index 100 +3.89%
            Equity + 2.94%

            Fundsmith +4.32%

            R 1 Reply Last reply
            4
            • A Offline
              A Offline
              Adam Kay
              Global Moderator
              wrote on last edited by
              #151

              SMCI will file any day now. Maybe Thursday-I say that because they won't file on a Friday. I have no doubts either way. And I am also highly confident the 10-k and 10-q(s) will be clean and unadjusted.

              Nvidia are due to report in 1 week on the 26th. This of course will set the tone across the entire market and is the most important earnings in a very long time. It's very difficult to predict what they will have to say but one thing we do know. Blackwell production is in full swing-it will be the fastest ramp in their history. In my opinion the Q1 guide is far more important than the Q4 actual result. Expectations for Q4 are $38B and it's almost certain that will exceed this number. However with Blackwell supply being completely a guess it's impossible to know-no one does.

              If the past repeats, we would expect Q1(guide) to be Q4 'actual' +$2B. I think this time will be different. I expect a guide of at least +$6B ahead of Q4-in fact my view is that Q4 actual+Q1 will get close to $100B in revenue. Q4 Gross margins will come in at around 73% and improve throughout 2025 as Blackwell yields naturally improve.

              Looking fwd to updates on Blackwell Ultra which will be named B300 and perhaps some news on timing of Rubin(Blackwell Next). I read yesterday that Elliott Management (Paul Singer) has gone short Nvidia-good luck with that.

              1 Reply Last reply
              2
              • A Adam Kay

                Morning,

                Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

                Tech +12.7%
                IML +6.7%
                IMOP GG +4.23%
                Index 100 +3.89%
                Equity + 2.94%

                Fundsmith +4.32%

                R Offline
                R Offline
                Rodders
                wrote on last edited by
                #152

                @Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:

                Morning,

                Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

                Tech +12.7%
                IML +6.7%
                IMOP GG +4.23%
                Index 100 +3.89%
                Equity + 2.94%

                Fundsmith +4.32%

                Excellent work, Folks.

                1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • D Offline
                  D Offline
                  dingg
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #153

                  Phe

                  Trailing sp500 by a significant margin, I know it's not the benchmark, but irks a bit.

                  Does it need a revamp??

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • 2 Offline
                    2 Offline
                    2BToo
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #154

                    I thought it had had a revamp towards the end of last year?

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • A Offline
                      A Offline
                      Adam Kay
                      Global Moderator
                      wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
                      #155

                      Hi Dingg, PHe is positive because it holds some tech. Netflix, Amzn and Apple do all the heavy lifting. The mandate won’t allow more sector weights. We are very vocal about the returns-there is no magic bullet. PHE has actually improved in the last 8 months.

                      We offer a wide range of portfolios and publish their returns and their holdings along with their mandates which can not be deviated from. We offer something for everyone. Some investors don’t like tech. Some like cash (MM). Some like the FTSE. It’s a self select model environment.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      2
                      • D Offline
                        D Offline
                        dingg
                        wrote on last edited by dingg
                        #156

                        Yh I know, I have a portfolio that holds phe as well as some of the racier offerings, just appears that some of the constituents in phe always seem to be an anchor.

                        Yes I'm looking at you nke 😂

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • A Offline
                          A Offline
                          Adam Kay
                          Global Moderator
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #157

                          PHE ended 2024 at +18-19% from memory. That was due to changes implemented August last year.
                          In 2023 it managed around +10%
                          In 2022 -ve 3%
                          2021 +8%

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • A Offline
                            A Offline
                            Adam Kay
                            Global Moderator
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #158

                            Very busy 72 hours.

                            Any moment now we expect the SM 10-K along with 2 X 10-Q.The spectacle outweighs the content imo. And on Wednesday the most important earnings call of the last year will be delivered y Team Green (Nvidia).

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            1
                            • S Offline
                              S Offline
                              SunsetZed
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #159

                              Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

                              C 1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • S SunsetZed

                                Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

                                C Offline
                                C Offline
                                Cappo
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #160

                                @SunsetZed Adam jinxed it with an email he sent me a week ago!

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • A Offline
                                  A Offline
                                  Adam Kay
                                  Global Moderator
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #161

                                  Hi A,

                                  I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

                                  M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

                                  C 1 Reply Last reply
                                  0
                                  • S Offline
                                    S Offline
                                    SunsetZed
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #162

                                    Thanks, so in a nutshell (if my little brain follows correctly) the good results were already priced in (possibly higher results were expected) hence the good results were not good enough to maintain the price that had been reached but if they keep delivering results like this (in terms of the increasing trajectory) the share price will go up further.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    0
                                    • A Adam Kay

                                      Hi A,

                                      I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

                                      M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

                                      C Offline
                                      C Offline
                                      Cappo
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #163

                                      @Adam-Kay 🤣

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      0
                                      • A Offline
                                        A Offline
                                        Adam Kay
                                        Global Moderator
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #164

                                        From the Beeb just now
                                        Trump suspends tariffs on most Mexican goods until 2 April after talks with country's president
                                        This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        0
                                        • M Offline
                                          M Offline
                                          mikeiow
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #165

                                          Indeed….& Canada too.

                                          Maybe the stock market rapidly heading downhill might have finally got him to understand tariffs don’t lead to lower prices….or maybe being called out and having the sight of Canadian stores removing US goods & Trudeau immediately offering tariffs back finally got through 🤷‍♂️

                                          Day 45 to this astonishing U-turn. He’s no Maggie, eh 🫣

                                          Sure, he will frame this as a pause, not a U-turn….but let’s see. Trump is essentially a coward, a bully, & when faced with strong responses, backs down.
                                          IMHO, of course.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
                                          3
                                          Reply
                                          • Reply as topic
                                          Log in to reply
                                          • Oldest to Newest
                                          • Newest to Oldest
                                          • Most Votes


                                          The value of your investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invested.

                                          Cobens a trading name of Astute Financial Management UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Address: 4th Floor Peek House, 20 Eastcheap, London, EC3M 1EB. Registered in England and Wales No. 5850981.

                                          • Login

                                          • Don't have an account? Register

                                          • Login or register to search.
                                          • First post
                                            Last post
                                          0
                                          • Categories
                                          • Recent
                                          • Tags
                                          • Popular
                                          • Users
                                          • Groups