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  3. Busy couple of weeks on results front

Busy couple of weeks on results front

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote on last edited by
    #151

    SMCI will file any day now. Maybe Thursday-I say that because they won't file on a Friday. I have no doubts either way. And I am also highly confident the 10-k and 10-q(s) will be clean and unadjusted.

    Nvidia are due to report in 1 week on the 26th. This of course will set the tone across the entire market and is the most important earnings in a very long time. It's very difficult to predict what they will have to say but one thing we do know. Blackwell production is in full swing-it will be the fastest ramp in their history. In my opinion the Q1 guide is far more important than the Q4 actual result. Expectations for Q4 are $38B and it's almost certain that will exceed this number. However with Blackwell supply being completely a guess it's impossible to know-no one does.

    If the past repeats, we would expect Q1(guide) to be Q4 'actual' +$2B. I think this time will be different. I expect a guide of at least +$6B ahead of Q4-in fact my view is that Q4 actual+Q1 will get close to $100B in revenue. Q4 Gross margins will come in at around 73% and improve throughout 2025 as Blackwell yields naturally improve.

    Looking fwd to updates on Blackwell Ultra which will be named B300 and perhaps some news on timing of Rubin(Blackwell Next). I read yesterday that Elliott Management (Paul Singer) has gone short Nvidia-good luck with that.

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    • A Adam Kay

      Morning,

      Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

      Tech +12.7%
      IML +6.7%
      IMOP GG +4.23%
      Index 100 +3.89%
      Equity + 2.94%

      Fundsmith +4.32%

      R Offline
      R Offline
      Rodders
      wrote on last edited by
      #152

      @Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:

      Morning,

      Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

      Tech +12.7%
      IML +6.7%
      IMOP GG +4.23%
      Index 100 +3.89%
      Equity + 2.94%

      Fundsmith +4.32%

      Excellent work, Folks.

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      • D Offline
        D Offline
        dingg
        wrote on last edited by
        #153

        Phe

        Trailing sp500 by a significant margin, I know it's not the benchmark, but irks a bit.

        Does it need a revamp??

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        • 2 Offline
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          2BToo
          wrote on last edited by
          #154

          I thought it had had a revamp towards the end of last year?

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          • A Offline
            A Offline
            Adam Kay
            Global Moderator
            wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
            #155

            Hi Dingg, PHe is positive because it holds some tech. Netflix, Amzn and Apple do all the heavy lifting. The mandate won’t allow more sector weights. We are very vocal about the returns-there is no magic bullet. PHE has actually improved in the last 8 months.

            We offer a wide range of portfolios and publish their returns and their holdings along with their mandates which can not be deviated from. We offer something for everyone. Some investors don’t like tech. Some like cash (MM). Some like the FTSE. It’s a self select model environment.

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            • D Offline
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              dingg
              wrote on last edited by dingg
              #156

              Yh I know, I have a portfolio that holds phe as well as some of the racier offerings, just appears that some of the constituents in phe always seem to be an anchor.

              Yes I'm looking at you nke 😂

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              • A Offline
                A Offline
                Adam Kay
                Global Moderator
                wrote on last edited by
                #157

                PHE ended 2024 at +18-19% from memory. That was due to changes implemented August last year.
                In 2023 it managed around +10%
                In 2022 -ve 3%
                2021 +8%

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                • A Offline
                  A Offline
                  Adam Kay
                  Global Moderator
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #158

                  Very busy 72 hours.

                  Any moment now we expect the SM 10-K along with 2 X 10-Q.The spectacle outweighs the content imo. And on Wednesday the most important earnings call of the last year will be delivered y Team Green (Nvidia).

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                  • S Offline
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                    SunsetZed
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #159

                    Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

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                    • S SunsetZed

                      Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

                      C Offline
                      C Offline
                      Cappo
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #160

                      @SunsetZed Adam jinxed it with an email he sent me a week ago!

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                      • A Offline
                        A Offline
                        Adam Kay
                        Global Moderator
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #161

                        Hi A,

                        I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

                        M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

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                        • S Offline
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                          SunsetZed
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #162

                          Thanks, so in a nutshell (if my little brain follows correctly) the good results were already priced in (possibly higher results were expected) hence the good results were not good enough to maintain the price that had been reached but if they keep delivering results like this (in terms of the increasing trajectory) the share price will go up further.

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                          • A Adam Kay

                            Hi A,

                            I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

                            M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

                            C Offline
                            C Offline
                            Cappo
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #163

                            @Adam-Kay 🤣

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                            • A Offline
                              A Offline
                              Adam Kay
                              Global Moderator
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #164

                              From the Beeb just now
                              Trump suspends tariffs on most Mexican goods until 2 April after talks with country's president
                              This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

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                              • M Offline
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                                mikeiow
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #165

                                Indeed….& Canada too.

                                Maybe the stock market rapidly heading downhill might have finally got him to understand tariffs don’t lead to lower prices….or maybe being called out and having the sight of Canadian stores removing US goods & Trudeau immediately offering tariffs back finally got through 🤷‍♂️

                                Day 45 to this astonishing U-turn. He’s no Maggie, eh 🫣

                                Sure, he will frame this as a pause, not a U-turn….but let’s see. Trump is essentially a coward, a bully, & when faced with strong responses, backs down.
                                IMHO, of course.

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                                • 2 Offline
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                                  2BToo
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #166

                                  Well, things are continuing to slip downwards today with talk brewing of a recession in the US.

                                  Anyone want to pitch a guess as to how long the downturn will last? Flying high again by the end of the week or flagging for months?

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                                  • A Offline
                                    A Offline
                                    Adam Kay
                                    Global Moderator
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #167

                                    No one knows but what has changed? Not a whole lot.
                                    The only one mentioning recession is DT
                                    The volatility is due to DT flip flopping on tariffs, greenland, panama canal, the gulf of America, annexing canada.

                                    It's interesting that before he was elected he mentioned the stock market ever 5 minutes but when asked yesterday about volatility he said 'i haven't even looked'. Sure he hasn't looked. Musk has 'lost' on paper over $100B. Tesla is down 50%, Trump personally holds billions in US equity including Amazon, Msft, Nvidia.

                                    My opinion and it's very difficult to know with DT :). The tariff talk was a threat to obtain large foreign investment-achieved. I would think it very unlikely that TSMC invest 160B in the US and he now doesn't rip up any tariff plans. And no Im not talking about the ability to avoid punitive tariffs on US made-all taiwan chips or at least for companies not on the naughty list.

                                    American supply chains are inextricably intertwined with Mexico and Taiwan that they cannot be separated due to reliance on cross border flows. Taxing them will only cause pain for all, and this is why i don't see it happening. Secondly, if he taxes everyone he will only push other countries to do more business with China imo.

                                    Fundamentally nothing has changed. OpenAI yesterday signed a $12B deal with Coreweave(backed by Nvidia) including a direct Equity investment by OpenAI. SMCI is a core supplier to Coreweave. Whilst I don't like the score board, I'm busy watching the game! It looks like we are winning on the field.

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                                    • R Offline
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                                      Ronski
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #168

                                      Looks like he's double the previously announced Canadian tariffs to 50%

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                                      • A Offline
                                        A Offline
                                        Adam Kay
                                        Global Moderator
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #169

                                        He’ll have a wee chat with our BOE governor and row back-probably.

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                                        • C Offline
                                          C Offline
                                          Cappo
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #170

                                          Rolled back to a mere 25% according to the Beeb.

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