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  3. Busy couple of weeks on results front

Busy couple of weeks on results front

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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  • A Online
    A Online
    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote on last edited by
    #147

    Great day for Tech and Lifestyleyesterday-and no it wasn't driven by FX(which was around 48 bps). Tech +2.16%/IML 1.44%.

    Cobens Tech is +7.8% YTD
    Cobens Lifestyle +5.30% YTD
    Cobens Equity +3.12% YTD

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    • A Online
      A Online
      Adam Kay
      Global Moderator
      wrote on last edited by
      #148

      Everyone holding the Tech portfolio should have received an email regarding the holding change.

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      • A Online
        A Online
        Adam Kay
        Global Moderator
        wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
        #149

        Twilio just reported, tumbling 10% on an average report with elevated valuationa-not good enough given the material reversion over the past 4 months. We sold it 2 weeks ago. Investing in Micron. Refer to the relevant thread .

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        • A Online
          A Online
          Adam Kay
          Global Moderator
          wrote on last edited by
          #150

          Morning,

          Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

          Tech +12.7%
          IML +6.7%
          IMOP GG +4.23%
          Index 100 +3.89%
          Equity + 2.94%

          Fundsmith +4.32%

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          • A Online
            A Online
            Adam Kay
            Global Moderator
            wrote on last edited by
            #151

            SMCI will file any day now. Maybe Thursday-I say that because they won't file on a Friday. I have no doubts either way. And I am also highly confident the 10-k and 10-q(s) will be clean and unadjusted.

            Nvidia are due to report in 1 week on the 26th. This of course will set the tone across the entire market and is the most important earnings in a very long time. It's very difficult to predict what they will have to say but one thing we do know. Blackwell production is in full swing-it will be the fastest ramp in their history. In my opinion the Q1 guide is far more important than the Q4 actual result. Expectations for Q4 are $38B and it's almost certain that will exceed this number. However with Blackwell supply being completely a guess it's impossible to know-no one does.

            If the past repeats, we would expect Q1(guide) to be Q4 'actual' +$2B. I think this time will be different. I expect a guide of at least +$6B ahead of Q4-in fact my view is that Q4 actual+Q1 will get close to $100B in revenue. Q4 Gross margins will come in at around 73% and improve throughout 2025 as Blackwell yields naturally improve.

            Looking fwd to updates on Blackwell Ultra which will be named B300 and perhaps some news on timing of Rubin(Blackwell Next). I read yesterday that Elliott Management (Paul Singer) has gone short Nvidia-good luck with that.

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            • A Adam Kay

              Morning,

              Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

              Tech +12.7%
              IML +6.7%
              IMOP GG +4.23%
              Index 100 +3.89%
              Equity + 2.94%

              Fundsmith +4.32%

              R Offline
              R Offline
              Rodders
              wrote on last edited by
              #152

              @Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:

              Morning,

              Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:

              Tech +12.7%
              IML +6.7%
              IMOP GG +4.23%
              Index 100 +3.89%
              Equity + 2.94%

              Fundsmith +4.32%

              Excellent work, Folks.

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                D Offline
                dingg
                wrote on last edited by
                #153

                Phe

                Trailing sp500 by a significant margin, I know it's not the benchmark, but irks a bit.

                Does it need a revamp??

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                  2BToo
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #154

                  I thought it had had a revamp towards the end of last year?

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                  • A Online
                    A Online
                    Adam Kay
                    Global Moderator
                    wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
                    #155

                    Hi Dingg, PHe is positive because it holds some tech. Netflix, Amzn and Apple do all the heavy lifting. The mandate won’t allow more sector weights. We are very vocal about the returns-there is no magic bullet. PHE has actually improved in the last 8 months.

                    We offer a wide range of portfolios and publish their returns and their holdings along with their mandates which can not be deviated from. We offer something for everyone. Some investors don’t like tech. Some like cash (MM). Some like the FTSE. It’s a self select model environment.

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                      dingg
                      wrote on last edited by dingg
                      #156

                      Yh I know, I have a portfolio that holds phe as well as some of the racier offerings, just appears that some of the constituents in phe always seem to be an anchor.

                      Yes I'm looking at you nke 😂

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                        A Online
                        Adam Kay
                        Global Moderator
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #157

                        PHE ended 2024 at +18-19% from memory. That was due to changes implemented August last year.
                        In 2023 it managed around +10%
                        In 2022 -ve 3%
                        2021 +8%

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                          Adam Kay
                          Global Moderator
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #158

                          Very busy 72 hours.

                          Any moment now we expect the SM 10-K along with 2 X 10-Q.The spectacle outweighs the content imo. And on Wednesday the most important earnings call of the last year will be delivered y Team Green (Nvidia).

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                            S Offline
                            SunsetZed
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #159

                            Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

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                            • S SunsetZed

                              Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

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                              C Offline
                              Cappo
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #160

                              @SunsetZed Adam jinxed it with an email he sent me a week ago!

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                              • A Online
                                A Online
                                Adam Kay
                                Global Moderator
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #161

                                Hi A,

                                I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

                                M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

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                                  S Offline
                                  SunsetZed
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #162

                                  Thanks, so in a nutshell (if my little brain follows correctly) the good results were already priced in (possibly higher results were expected) hence the good results were not good enough to maintain the price that had been reached but if they keep delivering results like this (in terms of the increasing trajectory) the share price will go up further.

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                                  • A Adam Kay

                                    Hi A,

                                    I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

                                    M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

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                                    C Offline
                                    Cappo
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #163

                                    @Adam-Kay 🤣

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                                    • A Online
                                      A Online
                                      Adam Kay
                                      Global Moderator
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #164

                                      From the Beeb just now
                                      Trump suspends tariffs on most Mexican goods until 2 April after talks with country's president
                                      This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

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                                        M Offline
                                        mikeiow
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #165

                                        Indeed….& Canada too.

                                        Maybe the stock market rapidly heading downhill might have finally got him to understand tariffs don’t lead to lower prices….or maybe being called out and having the sight of Canadian stores removing US goods & Trudeau immediately offering tariffs back finally got through 🤷‍♂️

                                        Day 45 to this astonishing U-turn. He’s no Maggie, eh 🫣

                                        Sure, he will frame this as a pause, not a U-turn….but let’s see. Trump is essentially a coward, a bully, & when faced with strong responses, backs down.
                                        IMHO, of course.

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                                          2 Offline
                                          2BToo
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #166

                                          Well, things are continuing to slip downwards today with talk brewing of a recession in the US.

                                          Anyone want to pitch a guess as to how long the downturn will last? Flying high again by the end of the week or flagging for months?

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