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  3. Busy couple of weeks on results front

Busy couple of weeks on results front

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote on last edited by
    #158

    Very busy 72 hours.

    Any moment now we expect the SM 10-K along with 2 X 10-Q.The spectacle outweighs the content imo. And on Wednesday the most important earnings call of the last year will be delivered y Team Green (Nvidia).

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      SunsetZed
      wrote on last edited by
      #159

      Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

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      • S SunsetZed

        Things looked great with the results on 18th Feb and the company announcements I've followed on here since all looked good as well yet IML and PHT both look to have nosedived over the past 10 days which doesn't correlate in my novice mind. Can you explain for me Adam?

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        Cappo
        wrote on last edited by
        #160

        @SunsetZed Adam jinxed it with an email he sent me a week ago!

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        • A Offline
          A Offline
          Adam Kay
          Global Moderator
          wrote on last edited by
          #161

          Hi A,

          I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

          M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

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            SunsetZed
            wrote on last edited by
            #162

            Thanks, so in a nutshell (if my little brain follows correctly) the good results were already priced in (possibly higher results were expected) hence the good results were not good enough to maintain the price that had been reached but if they keep delivering results like this (in terms of the increasing trajectory) the share price will go up further.

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            • A Adam Kay

              Hi A,

              I discuss this in the Nvidia thread.

              M, ok i won't do that again 🙂

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              Cappo
              wrote on last edited by
              #163

              @Adam-Kay 🤣

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              • A Offline
                A Offline
                Adam Kay
                Global Moderator
                wrote on last edited by
                #164

                From the Beeb just now
                Trump suspends tariffs on most Mexican goods until 2 April after talks with country's president
                This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

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                  mikeiow
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #165

                  Indeed….& Canada too.

                  Maybe the stock market rapidly heading downhill might have finally got him to understand tariffs don’t lead to lower prices….or maybe being called out and having the sight of Canadian stores removing US goods & Trudeau immediately offering tariffs back finally got through 🤷‍♂️

                  Day 45 to this astonishing U-turn. He’s no Maggie, eh 🫣

                  Sure, he will frame this as a pause, not a U-turn….but let’s see. Trump is essentially a coward, a bully, & when faced with strong responses, backs down.
                  IMHO, of course.

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                  • 2 Offline
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                    2BToo
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #166

                    Well, things are continuing to slip downwards today with talk brewing of a recession in the US.

                    Anyone want to pitch a guess as to how long the downturn will last? Flying high again by the end of the week or flagging for months?

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                    • A Offline
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                      Adam Kay
                      Global Moderator
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #167

                      No one knows but what has changed? Not a whole lot.
                      The only one mentioning recession is DT
                      The volatility is due to DT flip flopping on tariffs, greenland, panama canal, the gulf of America, annexing canada.

                      It's interesting that before he was elected he mentioned the stock market ever 5 minutes but when asked yesterday about volatility he said 'i haven't even looked'. Sure he hasn't looked. Musk has 'lost' on paper over $100B. Tesla is down 50%, Trump personally holds billions in US equity including Amazon, Msft, Nvidia.

                      My opinion and it's very difficult to know with DT :). The tariff talk was a threat to obtain large foreign investment-achieved. I would think it very unlikely that TSMC invest 160B in the US and he now doesn't rip up any tariff plans. And no Im not talking about the ability to avoid punitive tariffs on US made-all taiwan chips or at least for companies not on the naughty list.

                      American supply chains are inextricably intertwined with Mexico and Taiwan that they cannot be separated due to reliance on cross border flows. Taxing them will only cause pain for all, and this is why i don't see it happening. Secondly, if he taxes everyone he will only push other countries to do more business with China imo.

                      Fundamentally nothing has changed. OpenAI yesterday signed a $12B deal with Coreweave(backed by Nvidia) including a direct Equity investment by OpenAI. SMCI is a core supplier to Coreweave. Whilst I don't like the score board, I'm busy watching the game! It looks like we are winning on the field.

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                        Ronski
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #168

                        Looks like he's double the previously announced Canadian tariffs to 50%

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                          Adam Kay
                          Global Moderator
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #169

                          He’ll have a wee chat with our BOE governor and row back-probably.

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                            Cappo
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #170

                            Rolled back to a mere 25% according to the Beeb.

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                              Cappo
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #171

                              Painful times. I'm down >10% in about 3 weeks. Last time anything like this happened, the root cause was excised within 49 days, but I can't see Agent Orange going anywhere any time soon.

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                                Adam Kay
                                Global Moderator
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #172

                                If it's any consolation cappo, we have faired better than the index(benchmarks) and that 10% was rather swiftly gained. As I have mentioned previously, this isn't a structural decline. It's speculative . It will pass. The correction in July 2024 was just as bad. The question you want to ask yourself is, will the businesses we invest in really make less money? By and large I would say, little to no impact operationally. We don't actually know what the policy is because it changes every 5 minutes. It's a Tempest/Squall.

                                The chances of chip tariffs on Taiwan have abated significantly (due to the massive US investment undertakings). As always I would suggest 'keep calm' and carry on.

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                                  Adam Kay
                                  Global Moderator
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #173

                                  And also don't forget that 1/3rd of the drop+, 4.5% is actually the USD which has weakened (pushing 1.30)-due to the UK being a a bit of a mess and having sticky inflation, resulting in higher rates which draws in ££ seeking a higher yield.

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                                    Cappo
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #174

                                    Thanks Adam, always good to get some reassurance! I should look back at mine over 12 months or something and see what the overall chart looks like.

                                    Might survive a few more weeks without resorting to value pasta and cheap ketchup 😆

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                                      exIM
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #175

                                      I'm pretty sure most of us are here for the long haul, fundamental's are good for what we're invested in, have faith/patience and eventually we can all celebrate ✌

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                                        2BToo
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #176

                                        Echo the comments thus far. We're investing, not trading. Worse storms have been weathered and forgotten about.

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                                        • A Offline
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                                          Adam Kay
                                          Global Moderator
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #177

                                          We believe we are in the very early stages of a technology/growth revolution. And we only have to be half right. There is no point looking too far out beyond ones nose (10 years) because it just becomes guess work. However the investment in this space is not going to slow down-so says every tech leader and the manufacturers, TSMC, AVGO, MU, META et al. When management at Nvidia say(last week) that they believe for them alone, the health and drug segment(one segment) looks like $100B in revenue for them-they have strong belief based on adoption and progress in this space. The beauty is, we don't have to agree entirely to justify investing in them because today they are the fastest growing company on the planet and have a PE the same as Coke KO. If that doesn't put 'valuation' into perspective,im not sure anything will.

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