Busy couple of weeks on results front
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No one knows but what has changed? Not a whole lot.
The only one mentioning recession is DT
The volatility is due to DT flip flopping on tariffs, greenland, panama canal, the gulf of America, annexing canada.It's interesting that before he was elected he mentioned the stock market ever 5 minutes but when asked yesterday about volatility he said 'i haven't even looked'. Sure he hasn't looked. Musk has 'lost' on paper over $100B. Tesla is down 50%, Trump personally holds billions in US equity including Amazon, Msft, Nvidia.
My opinion and it's very difficult to know with DT :). The tariff talk was a threat to obtain large foreign investment-achieved. I would think it very unlikely that TSMC invest 160B in the US and he now doesn't rip up any tariff plans. And no Im not talking about the ability to avoid punitive tariffs on US made-all taiwan chips or at least for companies not on the naughty list.
American supply chains are inextricably intertwined with Mexico and Taiwan that they cannot be separated due to reliance on cross border flows. Taxing them will only cause pain for all, and this is why i don't see it happening. Secondly, if he taxes everyone he will only push other countries to do more business with China imo.
Fundamentally nothing has changed. OpenAI yesterday signed a $12B deal with Coreweave(backed by Nvidia) including a direct Equity investment by OpenAI. SMCI is a core supplier to Coreweave. Whilst I don't like the score board, I'm busy watching the game! It looks like we are winning on the field.
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He’ll have a wee chat with our BOE governor and row back-probably.
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If it's any consolation cappo, we have faired better than the index(benchmarks) and that 10% was rather swiftly gained. As I have mentioned previously, this isn't a structural decline. It's speculative . It will pass. The correction in July 2024 was just as bad. The question you want to ask yourself is, will the businesses we invest in really make less money? By and large I would say, little to no impact operationally. We don't actually know what the policy is because it changes every 5 minutes. It's a Tempest/Squall.
The chances of chip tariffs on Taiwan have abated significantly (due to the massive US investment undertakings). As always I would suggest 'keep calm' and carry on.
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And also don't forget that 1/3rd of the drop+, 4.5% is actually the USD which has weakened (pushing 1.30)-due to the UK being a a bit of a mess and having sticky inflation, resulting in higher rates which draws in ££ seeking a higher yield.
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We believe we are in the very early stages of a technology/growth revolution. And we only have to be half right. There is no point looking too far out beyond ones nose (10 years) because it just becomes guess work. However the investment in this space is not going to slow down-so says every tech leader and the manufacturers, TSMC, AVGO, MU, META et al. When management at Nvidia say(last week) that they believe for them alone, the health and drug segment(one segment) looks like $100B in revenue for them-they have strong belief based on adoption and progress in this space. The beauty is, we don't have to agree entirely to justify investing in them because today they are the fastest growing company on the planet and have a PE the same as Coke KO. If that doesn't put 'valuation' into perspective,im not sure anything will.
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It's looking fruity today in pre market today. With the two AI kings leading the way
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Thanks Adam, always good to get some reassurance! I should look back at mine over 12 months or something and see what the overall chart looks like.
Might survive a few more weeks without resorting to value pasta and cheap ketchup
@Cappo said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
Thanks Adam, always good to get some reassurance! I should look back at mine over 12 months or something and see what the overall chart looks like.
Might survive a few more weeks without resorting to value pasta and cheap ketchup
Hey - what’s wrong with value pasta & cheap ketchup?
#loveabargain! -
That is correct Ron. Markets always oscillate -The focus in your graphic is the 'Increase'. DT doesn't determine the prospects of these holdings in the long term.
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Dear Stock Market,
Another few days like yesterday please.
Yours,
Steve
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Hi Steve-it was a solid day yesterday. +3.56%/2.46%/0.98% (Tech/IML/Equity). GTC is on deck next week. And as has been mentioned before, this is not a structural move, it's based on fear(unknown). The holdings are sound and coupled with the new additions, will in particular, make the growth portfolio's just how I would want them.
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TSMC foundries require huge parcels of land. They had planned on buying a golf course, in fact they have bought it. One snag. the members are refusing to leave. Even offers of paying each golf club member USD 24,000 to walk away couldn't persuade them and there appears to be an impasse (code for 'we want 50k each!) . Officials now say, our takeover of the property will be postponed.
That was for Renmure who requested some more humour.
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Meow!!
