Oracle (ORCL)
-
Oracle is on the move again(up) based on rumours it will run the US operations of Tik-Tok. According to DT (Trump) 'a deal has been done'. The parties to said deal have yet to comment.
-
Oracle is raising $50B for data centre expansion, but not only for OpenAI.
"Oracle said we should expect that this money will go toward data centres for TikTok, AMD, Elon Musk's xAI and Nvidia..."
Recent comments from Jensen Haung about limiting its investment in OpenAI. This isn't a slow down. Rather, recalling the prior $100B announcement I recall Altman announced a deal with AMD(within days) which was clearly a slap in the face and dirty trick imo. My take away from the latest pushback is Jensens way of flexing their dominant position (we have all the money and the chips so play nice). From the Wanderers 'don't X with the
WongsHuangs'It would appear Nvidia is cosying up to XAi
-
What a great film …..
-
I expect Jensen to come out swinging during their next earnings call, scheduled for Web Feb 25 (3 weeks tomorrow). He is very conscious of the stock price action or inaction and I'm confident he will address that with openness, honesty and integrity. I expect some very big numbers and his comments will focus on what they are seeing (insatiable demand) plus China is a new addition.
The market is very fickle but very quick to change sentiment and what you have seen is a flat line range bound scenario where money gets moved into other plays, always chasing that quick buck. When Nvidia moves it does so very quickly and this quarter+guide is the perfect time imo. Blackwell is mature, Hopper is still in demand and Rubin (Vera Rubin) is in full production(scaling).
Four months ago Jensen said they had $500B in orders 'for the next 18 months'. He's talking about data centre not the entire business. I wouldn't be surprised if he raises this number as my numbers suggest closer to 700B total over the next 18 months.
This reported Q(Q4), I think they'll earn very close to $40B net. I can't see why they won't add in some China H200(Q1 guide), how much is unknown. They have orders for 10-12B min but will they ship it all in Q1. They have the stock. No one knows. They have plenty of time (Feb-April). Conservatively I think they will manage the usual +$10B expansion QoQ and +$XB from china, i.e Actual Q4+$10+X. And then guide back $5B. **I think the guide will be somewhere in the range $75B+ range leaving scope to beat this materially (80s). I'd be surprised if they left China out because they aren't reporting for another 3 weeks.
We have to bear in mind they are very conservative and don't ever want to bank on something and end up missing. I believe they could generate $80+B next Q but you won't ever see a guide that high-too risky. I also think they will earn close to $45B next quarter.
Whilst China demand is massive, initial orders will trickle in 2-3B Q1 and scale from there.
-
Oracle beats and guides higher. Confirms 20% growth date. Stock pops 10% AH. Details tomorrow after the conference call.
-
Oracle – Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Highlights (Fiscal Q3)
Overall performance
Very strong quarter, beating expectations across the board.
First quarter in more than 15 years where organic revenue and organic non-GAAP EPS both grew at 20%+ in USD.Business momentum is accelerating as Oracle shifts further from licences to recurring cloud revenue.
Major strategic developments
TikTok U.S. restructuring:
U.S. data operations separated from ByteDance into a new independent company.Oracle holds 15% equity and a board seat.
Existing technology-vendor revenue continues unchanged.
Oracle will record its share of earnings from the investment starting in Q4 results.Capital raising:
Plan to raise up to $50 billion in financing.
$30 billion already raised via investment-grade bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock.
No further bond issuance expected in calendar 2026 beyond this programme.
Cloud applications (SaaS)
Oracle claims it has the fastest-growing and most complete cloud applications suite.
Cloud applications revenue (constant currency) up 11%, reaching $16.1 billion annualised run-rate.Key product growth:
Fusion ERP: +14%
Fusion SCM: +15%
Fusion HCM: +15%
Fusion CX: +6%
NetSuite: +11%
Industry SaaS solutions: +19%
Other points:
Over 2,000 customers went live on Oracle cloud applications in the quarter.
Implementation times are continuing to fall.
Oracle won multiple deals against Workday and SAP.
AI and the “SaaS death” narrative
Management rejected the idea that AI will kill SaaS (“SaaSpocalypse”).Instead, Oracle says it is embedding AI directly into its applications.
Over 1,000 AI agents already built into Fusion and industry apps.
AI tools allow smaller engineering teams to deliver products faster.Two fastest-growing segments:
Multicloud database revenue: +531% year-on-year
AI infrastructure revenue: +243% year-on-yearMulticloud strategy:
Oracle database services now run across multiple clouds via partnerships with:
Microsoft
Google
Amazon
Region rollout:
33 regions live with Microsoft
14 with Google
AWS growing from 2 regions to 8 in Q3, targeting 22 by Q4.AI infrastructure demand
Demand for GPU and CPU capacity exceeds supply.
Reflected in $553 billion remaining performance obligations (RPO).
Oracle secured 10+ gigawatts of data-centre power capacity coming online over the next three years.Operational progress:
Manufacturing sites tripled.
Rack production up 4× in a year.
Time from hardware delivery to revenue cut by 60%.Profitability
AI infrastructure delivered 32% gross margin, above the company’s 30% guidance.
Database services have much higher margins (60–80% range).
Overall OCI margins expected to improve as scale increases.
Sovereign cloud opportunity
Growing demand for sovereign AI and sovereign cloud solutions globally.
Oracle’s Alloy model allows customers or governments to run full OCI stacks in sovereign environments.Unlike competitors, Oracle says it can deploy the entire OCI platform and applications stack, not just limited edge services.
AI database and enterprise data
Enterprises increasingly want AI models applied to private data, rather than building their own large language models.
Oracle’s AI Data Platform and AI Database aim to connect enterprise data (databases, lakes, applications) to leading AI models securely.
Key message from leadership
Oracle positions itself as an AI-driven full-stack enterprise platform combining:
database
cloud infrastructure (OCI)
AI data platform
SaaS applications.
Management believes AI will expand Oracle’s role, enabling automation of entire industry ecosystems such as healthcare and finance. -
Oracle has expanded its partnership with Bloom Energy to secure up to 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of Bloom’s fuel cell systems to support the growth of its AI data centre infrastructure.
For perspective, 2.8GW is enough to power 7 million UK homes! A staggering amount of energy.
-
Yesterday Oracle updated the market at their investor conference. What an update-def worth a read. Look at teh growth(guidance). Almost 4X from now until 2030! Management have guided EPS to rise from 7.60 in 2026 to $21 by 2030!
Management also revealed:
- $664bn contracted backlog, over 90% associated with infrastructure.
- 7 GW of additional capacity planned over approximately two years.
- Approximately 10 GW total capacity by the end of FY2028.
- Cloud database growth expected to exceed 50%.
- Existing four-year-old GPUs have been renewed or resold at prices 20% above their original contract prices. Right there is hard evidence there is money in GPUs
The real surprise wasn't the $225b revenue target, which was broadly already known. It was the financing commitment.
Oracle said it needed only another $20b of capital-market funding through FY2030, comprising $10bn of debt and $10bn of equity, on top of the $20b equity raise already completed. This contradicts all the FUD about their inability to fund their expansion.
The mechanisms include supplier financing, customers supplying their own GPUs and customer prepayments. These reduce Oracle's immediate cash requirements, although vendor financing and leases still create financial obligations.