Ok thanks.

Developing story…. NVDA: Mercedes, Nvidia, and Uber to partner on large-scale commercial robotaxi deployment. interesting Also Amazon in talks to invest 50 billion in openai

I follow Dylan Patel, founder of Semi Analysis. Very knowledgeable on the tech side, not the 'stock' side but for me, it compliments the knowledge and allows me to separate the hype from the reality . I know he met Chuck Liang recently to discuss their plans-he thinks something important is about to drop. Why Supermicro (SMCI) Gets the Spotlight in Dylan’s Tease—And Not Dell, Foxconn, or Wiwynn SM as a key supporter of his imminent “huge” framework on AI chips, inference, and infrastructure, due to drop by the evening of 9 October. SMCI is listed alongside hyperscalers/cloud players (CoreWeave, Nebius) and hardware/infrastructure specialists (Crusoe, HPE, Tensorwave), highlighting its pivotal role in the rack/server layer for optimised inference stacks. Notably absent are Dell, Foxconn, and Wiwynn (Wistron’s AI-focused ODM arm), despite their prominence in AI server markets. This isn’t arbitrary; it reflects SMCI’s unique position as the agile, high-density leader for the “neo-cloud” era,(think IREN) tailored to inference’s bursty(yes bursty-data that can burst from 1X to 100X in a nano second,) power-intensive demands. Here’s why SMCI gets the call-out, grounded in Patel’s reports, posts, and industry context:1. SMCI’s Edge: Speed, Customisation, and Hyperscaler Fit for InferenceRapid Prototyping and Deployment: SMCI excels at “just-in-time” manufacturing, delivering 100,000+ servers in weeks rather than months. This is critical for inference, where hyperscalers like CoreWeave (an SMCI client) demand swift iterations on hybrid NVIDIA/AMD setups to manage variable query loads. Patel’s September 2025 SemiAnalysis report on rack architecture (co-authored by him) praises SMCI’s modular designs for disaggregated PDUs and liquid cooling, enabling 250kW+ racks with a 30% better total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to rigid ODM builds. Foxconn and Wiwynn, as pure ODMs, prioritise volume for branded OEMs (e.g., Dell’s enterprise kits) but lag in bespoke hyperscaler customisation. Direct Hyperscaler Relationships: SMCI sells directly to neo-clouds (CoreWeave, xAI’s Colossus—partially SMCI-supplied) and AI labs (OpenAI’s AMD pivot), bypassing intermediaries. In his August 2025 “No Priors” podcast, Patel highlights SMCI’s vertical integration (from motherboard design to cooling), giving them a two-year lead on liquid-cooled hybrids, essential for inference’s 80%+ energy draw. Dell shines in enterprise/sovereign AI (per Patel’s May 2025 “How Dell Is Beating Supermicro” report), but their slower cycles, optimised for HPC stability, don’t match neo-cloud urgency. Inference-Specific Advantages: Backed by vLLM/SGLang (inference engines-sorry tech heavy!), the framework likely benchmarks rack-level metrics like tokens/second per watt. SMCI’s 8U/10U GPU trays (e.g., SYS-821GE with 8x Blackwell) blend NVIDIA prefill compute with AMD decode efficiency, reducing latency by 20-50%. Foxconn/Wiwynn handle high-volume NVIDIA HGX for cloud giants (e.g., Foxconn’s Oracle Stargate supply), but Patel’s critiques (e.g., 2023 posts on Foxconn’s public “reveals” being overhyped) underscore their ODM commoditisation—cheaper but less innovative for multi-vendor inference. Historical Context from Patel: SMCI as the “Crusher” in AI RacksPatel’s analyses consistently position SMCI as a leader in frontier AI infrastructure. A 12 September 2025 X post details his Supermicro factory tour with CEO Charles Liang, showcasing GB300/B300 and MI355X racks—directly tying to the tease’s NVIDIA/AMD backers. In contrast, his May 2024 report praises Dell for enterprise wins (e.g., Tesla, CoreWeave orders) but notes SMCI’s resurgence in neo-clouds via cheaper, denser cooling (e.g., April 2023 post: “I’m such an idiot for not going turbo long SuperMicro... they crush Dell and crew while being much cheaper”). Final thought- SMCI’s Unique PositionDylan’s call-out of SMCI reflects their role as the inference infrastructure “backbone” for collaborative, multi-vendor stacks, validated by factory tours, reports, and backers like HPE (also listed). Dell, Foxconn, and Wiwynn play critical roles in enterprise or ODM volume but lack SMCI’s hyperscaler agility and hybrid rack innovation for inference. If the full drop (expected ~evening 9 October BST) includes rack BOMs or benchmarks, SMCI’s prominence will likely grow.

It's a pretty consistent pattern of late. Strong intra quarter and sell the news. The bottom line is the MSFT result was solid, circa 20% growth. I'm happy enough. The tech portfolio so far today is weathering the bumps well imo. And we sit at an all time high so a bit of volatility is manageable . Unlike some tech portfolios I know which are getting thumped One other thing-quality always comes back!

India's deal with the US [image: 1770107282989-screenshot-2026-02-03-at-08.27.29.png]

[image: 1770107206041-screenshot-2026-02-03-at-08.26.18.png]

Anyone who holds a portfolio and has questions can contact either myself and or Nik. Many have. Discussions around suitability are very individual specific due to goals, age, risk appetite and time to retirement/time to draw down.

Amazing! Can it continue....who knows! Out of interest, when do the formal summary sheets get updated? (The ones at https://www.intelligentmoney.com/portfolios#comp-livoaycf2)

Over 50% of the value of the company is AWS-maybe 65% AWS generates approx 28.7b and earns 10.5(quarter) Azure generates about 24.5b(less than AWS) but also earns 10.5b Similar money makers similar growth. Msft earns significantly more money overall-circa 50%+ more.

Thank you Nik. Perhaps you could propose giving the client the option to abandon the small change remaining in funds since it costs the company more to withdraw than the amounts themselves. This would help expedite the process. Frank

[image: 1769673527882-screenshot-2026-01-29-at-07.57.36.png] Ad impressions +12% YoY; average price per ad +9% YoY. Capital expenditures: $72.22 billion. The net income dip was partly due to higher income tax provisions. Guidance for Q1 2026: Revenue $53.5–$56.5 billion. Full-year 2026: Expenses $162–$169 billion; capex $115–$135 billion (heavy AI infrastructure focus).Commentary Highlights from Mark Zuckerberg- Zuckerberg focused on strong 2025 performance and accelerating AI in 2026:Overall Performance: "We had strong business performance in 2025. I'm looking forward to advancing personal superintelligence for people around the world in 2026." He noted ending 2025 with over 3.5 billion daily users across apps (more than 2 billion each on Facebook and WhatsApp; nearly that on Instagram), driven by record holiday demand and AI performance gains. AI Acceleration: Described 2026 as a year of "major AI acceleration." In 2025, Meta rebuilt AI foundations; now shipping new models and products. First models expected to be good, with rapid improvement throughout the year. Vision: "building personal superintelligence" — AI that understands users' personal context (history, interests, content, relationships) for uniquely personalised experiences. Agents are starting to work effectively, unlocking new products and transforming work. Integration and Future: Merging LLMs with recommendation systems for Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and ads. Current systems are "primitive" compared to future potential. Excited about upcoming launches but limited details (only six months into rebuild). AI as "the next big media format," evolving feeds to more immersive/interactive (video as stepping stone). Monetisation and Investments: Opportunities for Meta AI via subscriptions and advertising. Justified aggressive spending (capex up to $135 billion in 2026) to catch up in leading AI models after trailing in 2025. Focus: improving core products, accelerating business via AI, exploring new opportunities like Meta AI monetisation. VR/Horizon Worlds investments will pair with AI advances.

I expect Jensen to come out swinging during their next earnings call, scheduled for Web Feb 25 (3 weeks tomorrow). He is very conscious of the stock price action or inaction and I'm confident he will address that with openness, honesty and integrity. I expect some very big numbers and his comments will focus on what they are seeing (insatiable demand) plus China is a new addition. The market is very fickle but very quick to change sentiment and what you have seen is a flat line range bound scenario where money gets moved into other plays, always chasing that quick buck. When Nvidia moves it does so very quickly and this quarter+guide is the perfect time imo. Blackwell is mature, Hopper is still in demand and Rubin (Vera Rubin) is in full production(scaling). Four months ago Jensen said they had $500B in orders 'for the next 18 months'. He's talking about data centre not the entire business. I wouldn't be surprised if he raises this number as my numbers suggest closer to 700B total over the next 18 months. This reported Q(Q4), I think they'll earn very close to $40B net. I can't see why they won't add in some China H200(Q1 guide), how much is unknown. They have orders for 10-12B min but will they ship it all in Q1. They have the stock. No one knows. They have plenty of time (Feb-April). Conservatively I think they will manage the usual +$10B expansion QoQ and +$XB from china, i.e Actual Q4+$10+X. And then guide back $5B. **I think the guide will be somewhere in the range $75B+ range leaving scope to beat this materially (80s). I'd be surprised if they left China out because they aren't reporting for another 3 weeks. We have to bear in mind they are very conservative and don't ever want to bank on something and end up missing. I believe they could generate $80+B next Q but you won't ever see a guide that high-too risky. I also think they will earn close to $45B next quarter. Whilst China demand is massive, initial orders will trickle in 2-3B Q1 and scale from there.

Quick update: with thanks to Nik, I've effected all the movements suggested and am hoping that the new investments in IM will grow as bountifully as the last ones have done! Thanks chaps.

Thanks. I did yesterday. Will wait or try to call. Thanks

Great to hear Ron. That portfolio has been very productive. I’m very proud of it and very pleased for anyone who put their hard earned money into it.

Breaking news-more to follow. OpenAI sign a deal today with AVGO/Broadcomm for the design of a new Aspics accelerator. The size of the deal is circa 10GW which would be at least $150B. AVGO is up about $40

ExIM, No problem, no intention of engaging but im not about to let intentional misinformation go unchecked.

Alphabet shares have surged as investor confidence snaps back, driven by clear evidence that Google’s AI strategy is not only defensible, but increasingly lucrative. After months of concern that generative AI would undermine search economics, recent performance suggests the opposite is unfolding. According to market commentators including Deepwater Asset Management, Google’s core search business has exceeded expectations as AI-driven results prompt users to ask more follow-up questions rather than fewer. That behaviour matters. More queries translate into more advertising opportunities, and Google has moved quickly to place ads both below and within AI-generated responses. Independent testing cited by Deepwater indicates monetisation has improved materially over the past three months, strengthening the outlook for 2026 and beyond. The company is also pushing aggressively into what it calls agentic commerce. New features allow users to complete checkout directly inside AI Mode, supported by fresh ad formats such as Direct Offers. A partnership with Walmart signals that Google is serious about capturing transaction-level value, not just referral traffic, a shift that could meaningfully lift revenue per user over time. On the competitive front, Google’s Gemini models have gained traction at speed. Some analysts argue Gemini 3 now rivals, and in certain tasks surpasses, OpenAI’s GPT, a view that has reshaped perceptions of the AI landscape. Momentum was further boosted by reports that Apple has selected Gemini to power upcoming Siri upgrades, displacing rival models. Alphabet shares are now up roughly 80% over six months, placing the stock among the top performers in the Nasdaq 100. The rally reflects a simple recalibration: Google is no longer seen as an AI casualty, but as a credible AI winner that knows how to monetise at scale. GOOG are expected to report their Q4 and biggest ever earnings on 4 Feb, exceeding $111B revenue (Q) and over $400B annually. A formidable operator with very deep expertise and competence across all things 'tech'. It's quite incredible to think, a company of this scale still growing at high double digit rates.

Ok sure, send it over

@Adam-Kay said in Dashboard performance charts.: J, I wish you’d mentioned this a while ago. [image: 1740153593731-screen-shot-2025-02-21-at-15.56.38.png] Crumbs. That's not shabby.