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Micron Technology

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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  • A Offline
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    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote last edited by Adam Kay
    #141

    There's always 'some guy' on the internet with an opinion. 🙂

    The author compared the HBM market to 'Timmy's lemonade stand and some guy comes along with a lemon processing machine and 100Xs the supply'. I won't bother unpicking that analogy as it's moronically (tropic thunder).

    All we need to know is management(who actually know what's going on) see blue sky as far as they could possibly see, are investing more(10s of billions) to meet the unmet demand they know they will not be able to meet. They think this will persist for years. They think existing 80%+ margins are the new norm. And the icing on the cake is the next 12 months will see min $100 and likely more EPS, it's not like this 300% growth comes with a high stock price, PEs in the 80-100 or more. It's 3.5. I like the math.

    Further that article is factually wrong with the math. ROE stated at 50%(it's not), it's well over 100% and as a number-articles with a narrative always pluck/insert dubious figures with no basis and that's exactly what you have here. Lists the next years ROE, without any source or basis. I don't use ROE because it is deeply flawed. It's historical and the big one, it's an accounting concept not a business concept. It's taught in academic circles and imo useless in this case. EG if management paid out a huge dividend, Equity is reduced and the ROE looks far worse. But is the company valuation worse-of course not.

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