Micron Technology
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Killed it-41b and 24 bucks plus 85% margin. Guide is 50b
eps guide 30. Wow. -
It’s up 10% after hours. And frankly that’s a joke.
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Insatiable demand-quote. 16 Long Term supply agreements signed-up from 1 last Q. Typically 5 years term representing a min of 40% and up to 50% of total output through 2030 calendar year.
G9 and 1gamma ramping well. Demand is so high management can not see any relief, period. Margins guide 86%.
Multi decade expansion expected due to robotics and autonomous vehicles (check)
Revenue YoY +345%
Gross margin +4,690 bps
Operating Income +1,436%
Net Income +1,398%PE Fwd sub 10 and likely closer to 7. The company is making MSFT/Apple+ money and growing quickly. Not much else to say, just staggering. No stock split hey ho.
From the end of this year 'we intend to return 100% of our free cash via stock buy backs'The stock is trading at $1,200 after hours.
Outlook/Guide
Margins 86%/revenue $50B and EPS $31comparison
Quarterly Operating Income is growing +7B/Q so I would expect Micron earnings to exceed all companies bar Nvidia within another Q or so.
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The quote of the earnings call. Is anyone listening? To 'begin' in a couple of years?
“Humanoid robots carry 10 times the amount of memory as an average L2+ vehicle. We expect a sustained substantial multi-decade memory demand cycle to begin in the latter part of this decade.” — Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra
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Three weeks ago we said..... it's nice to be right. It seems the biggest analysts on WS read our pages having received some DMs-pretty cool
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@Adam-Kay said in Micron Technology:
It’s up 10% after hours. And frankly that’s a joke.
As in it shouldnt be up that much?
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More i think,maybe 20%
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I like your Nr better
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@Adam-Kay said in Micron Technology:
It’s up 10% after hours. And frankly that’s a joke.
As in it shouldnt be up that much?
@Slow-Horses A beat and raise like that imo deserved 50%
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@Slow-Horses A beat and raise like that imo deserved 50%
@Adam-Kay said in Micron Technology:
@Slow-Horses A beat and raise like that imo deserved 50%
wowsers!
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just my opinion
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What’s your thoughts on the reports I was seeing yesterday regarding no shortage of memory and potential price fixing
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post up the link and I'll take a look
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Surely the timing of such news is opportunistic at best? https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/65375103/Garciaguirre_et_al_v_Samsung_Electronics_Co,_Ltd_et_al
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I think the law suit is a joke-the plaintiffs are a group of retail consumers upset at paying higher prices.
I think they will fail at the first hurdle 'motion to dismiss' because they need evidence and in today's Information Age it's obvious there is a severe shortage. It's not worthy of any more time imo. The lawyer involved is part of a 'firm' with 8 staff.Micron will likely retain Simpson Thacher & Bartlett an elite global firm with a formidable team. Between opposing counsel there will be significant disparity in size, resources, and defense experience. I expect the lawsuit to be tossed.
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just in....Korea's memory semiconductor industry is understood to be pushing to raise the average selling price (ASP) of commodity DRAM in the third quarter of this year by as much as 20% versus the prior quarter.
With supply shortages persisting across the entire product lineup on the back of AI infrastructure investment, memory makers are interpreted to be extending a strategy of maximizing profitability. The pace of price increases will slow thereafter, but industry sources say an extremely high profitability trend will continue into next year as well.
According to the industry on the 3rd, Samsung Electronics is in negotiations with customers targeting a Q3 DRAM ASP increase of up to around 20% versus the previous quarter.
SK Hynix is also believed to have entered long term contracts with customers but are demanding deposits up to 30% and have removed all price caps.
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UBS raises its DRAM and NAND price forecasts even more
DRAM prices are now expected to rise 32% QoQ in Q3 and 18% QoQ in Q4.
NAND prices are expected to rise 30% QoQ in Q3 and 12% QoQ in Q4.
Note anticipated supply increase (+19.3%)-this is the industry, however Micron is growing bit supply by at least 25%-30%-minimum 6%+ per Q. Second point +36% demand grow, ergo the gap widens. I think +36% is very low. Imo it's > 50% simply due to rack density and number of racks shipped. Third point 2027 revenue for 'memory' forecast +78%. I also disagree with the forecast that supply catches up with demand in the second half of 2028-the industry and even large customers expect 2030 earliest.
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Nvidia’s New Racks and the Memory Crunch
Nvidia’s Rubin platform, combined with the CMX (Context Memory eXtreme) storage architecture, marks a significant advancement in AI inference infrastructure. Each Rubin rack integrates numerous next-generation GPUs with BlueField-4 networking and substantial flash-based context storage. Per-rack NAND/SSD capacity typically reaches 1,000–1,200+ TB, with SuperPOD configurations scaling to tens of thousands of TB.
For NAND, the implications are profound. CMX-driven demand is projected to surge from around 35 million TB in 2026 to over 100 million TB in 2027, effectively adding an Apple-scale buyer to the market. Even as the industry adds some bit supply growth (around 20% in 2026), the gap between demand and supply is expected to widen. New wafer capacity from major players, including Micron, will not ramp meaningfully until late 2027 or 2028. This mismatch points to more severe shortages, sustained high utilisation, and further upward pressure on prices — particularly for enterprise and high-capacity QLC SSDs.
HBM faces similar strain. Rubin GPUs demand significantly more HBM4 per unit than previous generations, pushing rack-level requirements into the multi-terabyte range. HBM supply remains largely sold out through 2026 and into 2027 via long-term contracts.Overall, Nvidia’s new racks intensify the memory supercycle. Despite modest supply growth, explosive AI-driven demand will likely exacerbate shortages, supporting higher pricing and strong margins for suppliers like Micron well into 2027 and beyond. The structural imbalance favours memory producers in the near term.
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Even with aggressive greenfield fab investments, ongoing memory shortfalls for a decade or more remain highly probable. SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung has warned that 2027 will bring the industry’s most severe memory supply crunch yet, with demand outstripping supply well beyond 2030. This assessment holds despite major capacity expansions. While SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are pouring billions into new fabs and advanced packaging, the timeline for new greenfield sites is inherently long — often 3–5 years from groundbreaking to meaningful output.
Edge AI in cars and robotics accelerates this mismatch. Millions of autonomous vehicles needing 300GB+ per high-end unit, combined with scaling humanoid fleets (each requiring substantial HBM/DRAM for real-time multimodal AI), add explosive incremental demand on top of insatiable data centre needs. HBM products are already sold out through 2026, and producers continue prioritising the highest-margin AI accelerator customers.New capacity helps at the margin but struggles to match the compound annual growth in AI-driven memory consumption across cloud, automotive, and physical robotics. Efficiency gains (model compression, new architectures) offer some relief, yet they rarely outpace capability demand — more powerful edge models simply consume more memory per device as autonomy and dexterity targets rise.
The result: structural tightness persisting into the mid-2030s. Expect elevated prices, allocation battles, delayed product ramps, and higher costs for edge AI deployments. Greenfield sites mitigate but do not eliminate the decade-long imbalance SK Hynix leadership has highlighted.
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Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore said, today, that, after speaking with several purchasing contacts in the data centre space last week, the intensity of the memory shortages shows no signs of abating. He added that prices appear to be up at least 25% on a like-for-like basis from 2Q to 3Q.
This is above both Morgan Stanley’s and third-party estimates.
Moore also noted that longer-term concerns that the memory shortage will intensify in 2027 and again in 2028 remain as strong as ever. Morgan Stanley added that there is not enough memory relative to AI requirements and that it does not see this situation changing.
Notable quotes:
“Cloud customers are paying premiums to the expected 2Q price for six-week expedites; do we think those customers are paying those premia to stockpile memory in a warehouse?”
“AI is consuming so much DRAM that there isn’t enough left over for other sectors, and everywhere we look, we see indications that it is a true bottleneck. It’s holding back PC builds and smartphone builds.”
“Memory is not just constrained by AI demand—memory is increasingly one of the major primary constraints on AI demand, along with space and power.”
AK-Alas the short sellers have done a good job of convincing retail investors to offload their shares by aggressively pushing the glut narrative, coming next year. Imo we are in for a decade of shortages.