Nvidia News
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United States Approves Billions in Nvidia AI Chip Exports to UAE
The United States has authorised billions of dollars’ worth of Nvidia AI chip exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking a major milestone in the implementation of a high-profile bilateral artificial intelligence agreement, according to a Bloomberg report.
In return, the UAE has pledged to match chip imports with an equivalent level of investment in the United States, as part of a broader plan to invest $1.4 trillion over the next decade. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security recently issued the export licences under a deal reached in May, which could become a template for future U.S. AI diplomacy.
Although specific investment projects have yet to be disclosed, these are the first approved Nvidia AI chip exports to the Gulf nation since former President Donald Trump took office, signalling progress on a deal that has been controversial in Washington.
The agreement centres on a five-gigawatt data centre in Abu Dhabi, where OpenAI is a key partner. The broader arrangement allows for up to 500,000 advanced AI chips each year, with 20% earmarked for G42, an Abu Dhabi-based AI firm working closely with OpenAI. However, the initial batch of export licences excludes G42, and future approvals will depend on the pace and substance of Emirati investments in the U.S.
Some U.S. officials have expressed unease about building critical infrastructure abroad—particularly in a nation maintaining strong business ties with China. The UAE, which has made artificial intelligence a national priority, had been pushing for swift approval amid mounting frustration over regulatory delays.While the Biden administration had previously imposed strict controls on AI chip exports to countries like the UAE due to national security concerns, the Trump administration appears to be relaxing those restrictions. Officials say the goal is to counter China’s technological influence by ensuring that American companies dominate key AI infrastructure across the Middle East.
This development is a significant win for Nvidia. After months of export uncertainty and tightening U.S. chip restrictions, the approval opens a valuable market in the Gulf region, potentially worth billions in new sales.
The UAE’s commitment to match chip imports with U.S. investment also strengthens Nvidia’s strategic positioning within American foreign policy objectives—effectively tying commercial opportunity to diplomatic influence.
If the UAE follows through with its pledged investments and infrastructure rollout, capital should begin to flow relatively soon. The export licences have already been granted, meaning Nvidia can start fulfilling orders and recognising revenue once shipments commence.
In short, this is a big deal both politically and commercially. It signals a renewed U.S. willingness to project AI leadership through private-sector partnerships, while giving Nvidia a powerful foothold in one of the world’s fastest-growing technology regions. -
Internal(NVDA) slide on Capex....and driven by
A $50 Trillion industry. Interesting, given where we are now!
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-internally generated I should say.
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Talking up their own book?
One could read it and dismiss it out of hand-many companies spin this sort of stuff, right.A few factors to consider.
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We don't have to realise this sort of scale. 25% works, such is the position today. The near term numbers are solid, the longer dated, clearly some speculation.
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Jensen Huang is a businessman but he is also very credible, has high integrity and he has an excellent track record. Remember, he was planning this 10 years ago.
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Many other highly credible people/organisations agree. C. C Wei (TSM), he's building the factories to support it. And the customers are buying/building it at unprecedented scale/pace.
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As we have said before, the decision has been made to aim high (AGI/ASI) and in the words of Masa San, this will require 200M GPU and $7T. And the big players are racing to get their first. Zuckerberg himself stated, his fear is not scaling quickly enough.
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From where we sit, the numbers today more than stack up (Nvidia revenue and earnings). Imo valuation is not stretched and I would challenge anyone to put forward a credible argument against this. We have several more years of rapid build out before a determination is widely accepted, success, great success or, they hit a brick wall. In the mean time we are watching very closely and very much enjoying, not just the financials evolve but the technology.
I also wanted to add. Picking a good investment isn't just about quantitative research. Anyone can do that. The interpretation of those numbers/metrics are very important. Two people will draw different conclusions.
Often overlooked is the qualitative factors. Management quality, credibility, track record.
The common denominator-experience. I've been doing this for a very long time, I've seen a lot and you really only understand a business if you have followed them for years(through thick and thin) and have the tools to actually understand what the numbers mean. Experience is knowing a stock correction is structural or a market whim (buy the dip or bail) with much higher confidence (no one is right all the time). Staying calm vs panic. And I would argue many of these attributes can not be learned, not in the short term at least.
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breaking news-
On 15 October 2025, BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP)-led AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP)—including NVIDIA, Microsoft, xAI, and MGX—announced a $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Centers, a U.S. hyperscale operator with 15+ facilities. This landmark deal, one of the largest in AI infrastructure, encompasses debt and targets expansion to $100 billion via equity and financing, focusing on acquiring existing sites and building new renewable-powered data centres (DCs) optimised for AI workloads.
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HSBC Research today issued a report on Cowos capacity, stating, they see evidence of Nvidia wafer allocation at 800k units through 2027. This is the first sign of wafer accelerated growth since June 2025. A recap
Here is my May 25 estimate based on TSM public comments-this proved accurate QoQ. The important column being Nvidia wafers, circa 105k by year end. I would think e are ahead of this. Remember, there is a direct correlation between wafers and revenue. And HSBC makes this very point.
If we extrapolated these numbers using the existing expansion cadence we would arrive at circa 570k wafer through 2027. HSNC claims the number is now up to 800K and have modelled GPU(DC) segment revenues of up to $400B. Accordingly they have modelled just under $10 EPS! Accordingly they have issued a new price target of $320.
Exciting times ahead
