Thoughts on short term market direction
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The guide is 65. Details tomorrow. Exceeded all expectations
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Jensen told me Tuesday. My bad
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Guide margin 74.8. All gpu’s sold out-China irrelevant obvious. The 60-70-80 cadence is intact. Future up 400 points.
Bubbles forming, private businesses, crowd strike, palantir, anthropic value sept 183 billion. Anthropic value Nov 350b- that’s an interesting valuation delta. However nvidia is not the same. Everything we own is grounded in rationality.
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Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
@Ronski said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
I'm interested in the answer to this one too...
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According to the Guardian, its the AI Bubble fears again.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/20/stock-markets-ai-nvidia
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The market’s reaction to AI spending has been flat-out shortsighted. Investors want instant profit from something that, by design, requires massive upfront investment. It’s the same mentality that would look at a half-built city and complain it isn’t generating rent yet.
AI infrastructure isn’t a quick trade; it’s a multi-year buildout of compute, data pipelines, model capability, and product integration. Spending heavily now isn’t “wasteful” — it’s the cost of owning the future. Every major technological leap has followed this pattern: invest aggressively, endure a period where the cash flow looks ugly, then harvest the returns once the system is fully built and scaled.
Markets pretending this should behave like a consumer app launch are being irrational. You don’t build power grids, highways, or telecom networks for short-term comfort. You build them because once they’re in place, the monetisation becomes unavoidable and enormous.
It's not even as though the names selling off are even vaguely correlated to the perceived concern.
I see this as just a one of those market quirks. It will find something else to focus on in short order. Like rates 'cos jobs data was good'
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Well that nice little kick up yesterday morning has been followed by a (slightly larger) dip down this morning. I'm ever so slightly down on where I was two days ago.
Ho hum. In it for the long term and all that ... hopefully things will trend upwards over the coming couple of weeks. I look forward to the 'unavoidable and enormous monetisation'!
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Havnt posted here before and last was on PH. Anyway short term I get my fix from a 212 account. Most of funds are in with Corbens but to try and stop me chopping and changing as long holdings are clearly the best I play with some funds in 212 which then satisfies the stockmark genius delusion I have in sell sell and buy buy buy and min, hour, day trade.
Keep up the good work with Cobens. my PHT has done brill. -
Nice to see you back :).
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see Micron post - when companies shatter expectations only good things can happen
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Adam ..do we have any interesting news updates etc coming our way in January..
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Adam ..do we have any interesting news updates etc coming our way in January..
@Ducati996R said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Adam ..do we have any interesting news updates etc coming our way in January..
Well it looks like the words 'Trump' and 'Tariff' are being mentioned again. And those two words in the same sentence aren't usually good. Let's throw in 'Greenland' as well, and I think we could have some very interesting news updates.
Anyone have any opinion on where this one is going? US invasion? Eurozone troops fire on NATO allies? Putin/Jinping laugh all the way to the arms launchers? Or all bluff and bluster from The Orange One and it'll blow over like a short sharp rain shower?
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Trump yet again.
There’s chatter around the ‘net about Trump interfering with US interest rates and setting them below where they should be, and the resultant market reactions, along with people thinking that borrowing is cheap and piling in, and then can’t repay - hmm, where have heard that before?
Anyway, any thoughts on the likelihood of this, and if he does, what the effect might be on our funds? Are we shielded to any extent?
