Thoughts on short term market direction
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Jensen told me Tuesday. My bad
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Guide margin 74.8. All gpuâs sold out-China irrelevant obvious. The 60-70-80 cadence is intact. Future up 400 points.
Bubbles forming, private businesses, crowd strike, palantir, anthropic value sept 183 billion. Anthropic value Nov 350b- thatâs an interesting valuation delta. However nvidia is not the same. Everything we own is grounded in rationality.
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Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
@Ronski said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
I'm interested in the answer to this one too...
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According to the Guardian, its the AI Bubble fears again.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/20/stock-markets-ai-nvidia
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The marketâs reaction to AI spending has been flat-out shortsighted. Investors want instant profit from something that, by design, requires massive upfront investment. Itâs the same mentality that would look at a half-built city and complain it isnât generating rent yet.
AI infrastructure isnât a quick trade; itâs a multi-year buildout of compute, data pipelines, model capability, and product integration. Spending heavily now isnât âwastefulâ â itâs the cost of owning the future. Every major technological leap has followed this pattern: invest aggressively, endure a period where the cash flow looks ugly, then harvest the returns once the system is fully built and scaled.
Markets pretending this should behave like a consumer app launch are being irrational. You donât build power grids, highways, or telecom networks for short-term comfort. You build them because once theyâre in place, the monetisation becomes unavoidable and enormous.
It's not even as though the names selling off are even vaguely correlated to the perceived concern.
I see this as just a one of those market quirks. It will find something else to focus on in short order. Like rates 'cos jobs data was good'
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Well that nice little kick up yesterday morning has been followed by a (slightly larger) dip down this morning. I'm ever so slightly down on where I was two days ago.
Ho hum. In it for the long term and all that ... hopefully things will trend upwards over the coming couple of weeks. I look forward to the 'unavoidable and enormous monetisation'!
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Havnt posted here before and last was on PH. Anyway short term I get my fix from a 212 account. Most of funds are in with Corbens but to try and stop me chopping and changing as long holdings are clearly the best I play with some funds in 212 which then satisfies the stockmark genius delusion I have in sell sell and buy buy buy and min, hour, day trade.
Keep up the good work with Cobens. my PHT has done brill. -
Nice to see you back :).
