Thoughts on short term market direction
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Next Tuesday you will hear from Jensen Huang and Kress (CFO). That will be the driver. I expect them to use many superlatives in describing not just excellent demand but accelerating demand. They could report revenue close to $60B but they are constrained so logic says closer to $56-57 and a guide well into the $60s. Imo it doesn't matter so long as margins are intact and they should be. The situation is if they had 100b in product they'd sell it but they don't (yet).
My numbers are $57B and $1.26(margin 74)and a guide of $64B for Q4 with margins increasing 5-600bps to almost 75%
@Adam-Kay said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Next Tuesday you will hear from Jensen Huang and Kress (CFO). That will be the driver. I expect them to use many superlatives in describing not just excellent demand but accelerating demand. They could report revenue close to $60B but they are constrained so logic says closer to $56-57 and a guide well into the $60s. Imo it doesn't matter so long as margins are intact and they should be. The situation is if they had 100b in product they'd sell it but they don't (yet).
My numbers are $57B and $1.26(margin 74)and a guide of $64B for Q4 with margins increasing 5-600bps to almost 75%
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The guide is 65. Details tomorrow. Exceeded all expectations
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Jensen told me Tuesday. My bad
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Guide margin 74.8. All gpuās sold out-China irrelevant obvious. The 60-70-80 cadence is intact. Future up 400 points.
Bubbles forming, private businesses, crowd strike, palantir, anthropic value sept 183 billion. Anthropic value Nov 350b- thatās an interesting valuation delta. However nvidia is not the same. Everything we own is grounded in rationality.
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@Ronski said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
I'm interested in the answer to this one too...
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The marketās reaction to AI spending has been flat-out shortsighted. Investors want instant profit from something that, by design, requires massive upfront investment. Itās the same mentality that would look at a half-built city and complain it isnāt generating rent yet.
AI infrastructure isnāt a quick trade; itās a multi-year buildout of compute, data pipelines, model capability, and product integration. Spending heavily now isnāt āwastefulā ā itās the cost of owning the future. Every major technological leap has followed this pattern: invest aggressively, endure a period where the cash flow looks ugly, then harvest the returns once the system is fully built and scaled.
Markets pretending this should behave like a consumer app launch are being irrational. You donāt build power grids, highways, or telecom networks for short-term comfort. You build them because once theyāre in place, the monetisation becomes unavoidable and enormous.
It's not even as though the names selling off are even vaguely correlated to the perceived concern.
I see this as just a one of those market quirks. It will find something else to focus on in short order. Like rates 'cos jobs data was good'
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Well that nice little kick up yesterday morning has been followed by a (slightly larger) dip down this morning. I'm ever so slightly down on where I was two days ago.
Ho hum. In it for the long term and all that ... hopefully things will trend upwards over the coming couple of weeks. I look forward to the 'unavoidable and enormous monetisation'!
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Havnt posted here before and last was on PH. Anyway short term I get my fix from a 212 account. Most of funds are in with Corbens but to try and stop me chopping and changing as long holdings are clearly the best I play with some funds in 212 which then satisfies the stockmark genius delusion I have in sell sell and buy buy buy and min, hour, day trade.
Keep up the good work with Cobens. my PHT has done brill. -
Nice to see you back :).
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see Micron post - when companies shatter expectations only good things can happen
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Adam ..do we have any interesting news updates etc coming our way in January..
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Adam ..do we have any interesting news updates etc coming our way in January..
@Ducati996R said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Adam ..do we have any interesting news updates etc coming our way in January..
Well it looks like the words 'Trump' and 'Tariff' are being mentioned again. And those two words in the same sentence aren't usually good. Let's throw in 'Greenland' as well, and I think we could have some very interesting news updates.
Anyone have any opinion on where this one is going? US invasion? Eurozone troops fire on NATO allies? Putin/Jinping laugh all the way to the arms launchers? Or all bluff and bluster from The Orange One and it'll blow over like a short sharp rain shower?
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Trump yet again.
Thereās chatter around the ānet about Trump interfering with US interest rates and setting them below where they should be, and the resultant market reactions, along with people thinking that borrowing is cheap and piling in, and then canāt repay - hmm, where have heard that before?
Anyway, any thoughts on the likelihood of this, and if he does, what the effect might be on our funds? Are we shielded to any extent?
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It's speculation however it's no secret Trump wants a weaker $ to drive trade and fix the trade imbalance. On the flip side US companies in theory do better and their stock price goes up. And ccy pairs are relative. GBP is hardly in a great place either. I largely ignore this sort of tinkering and sitting where we are with our flag ship portfolios I can't see any issue. If you want US company exposure and that is the tilt you can't avoid the dollar-and for clarity we aren't in the hedging game because that costs money and you need to lock in cashflows today which is just adding another layer of speculation.
What we have seen over the last 9 months is DT commenting -5 mins later it's something else. Focus on the businesses and if they do well, so will you.
Earnings season kicks off next week so that is all that matters.
