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  3. PHE and PHT

PHE and PHT

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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  • 2 Offline
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    2BToo
    wrote on last edited by
    #8

    Super Micro just dropped 11%, having started well today. Anyone else noticed ( have an explanation?

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      dingg
      wrote on last edited by
      #9

      Dodgy accounting investigation

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        Adam Kay
        Global Moderator
        wrote on last edited by
        #10

        The probe by the DOJ amounts to 'A prosecutor in the U.S. attorney's office in San Francisco has asked for information about a former employee that has previously accused Super Micro of accounting violations, according to the Journal.' This will be sacked executive Bob Luong. His statements have been refuted by the company. And in of itself the quantum of the accusations are immaterial.

        No one wants to see this drag on and the stock is back to where it was 2 weeks ago.

        A reminder, the stock was purchased only 9 months ago and the gain, including todays drop is 133%. 100 of the 133 has been realised

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        • 2 Offline
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          2BToo
          wrote on last edited by
          #11

          Thanks chaps. While the benefits and otherwise of forums will debated until kingdom come, it's swift responses like this that make them so valuable for numpties like me.

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            dingg
            wrote on last edited by
            #12

            No worries, pulled the whole sector down, ebbs and flows, all indices at or near all time highs, twitchy times 😎

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              2BToo
              wrote on last edited by
              #13

              Twitchy indeed. Things were going great guns earlier on this year but it seems to have been one step forward, two steps back for the summer. I'd hoped that the Fed dropping 50bps would have given the whole thing a good kick in the right direction but it hasn't. The strengthening pound vs. USD hasn't helped, but nonetheless things still seem stickier than I'd like.

              If anyone would like to put a finger in the air / consult their crystal ball and make a prediction of when things will get another decent boost then I'd love to hear. (I'm not sure I'll believe them, mind! 🙂 )

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                dingg
                wrote on last edited by
                #14

                Post election usa imo

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                  2BToo
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #15

                  Good point. Thanks dingg.

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                    2BToo
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #16

                    Well SMCI jumped like a startled grasshopper today so I'll be hoping for some nice numbers from PHT tomorrow. And possibly from IML too, as I think that their longer-term funds have a good bit of Super Micro in them.

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                      dingg
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #17

                      I reckon that you're a tad optimistic 🤔

                      Almost everything else took a kick in the balls.

                      Its a marathon not a sprint, I'm still about 1% off the yearly high thus far, been a fight to get back up there the past couple of months.

                      Post election rally into Christmas, hopefully 🤞

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                        dingg
                        wrote on last edited by dingg
                        #18

                        Better than I suspected, not much change at all on pht or iml
                        👍

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                          Adam Kay
                          Global Moderator
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #19

                          PHT was modestly up. I would estimate +35bps. The wider market fell approx 100bps. Gainers were limited to AI related stocks due to SMCI stating that they had what is a record quarter due to DLC server shipments. Their quarterly result will be interesting. Last quarter they delivered 1,350 DLC and it sounds like they have delivered 2,000 this quarter which would equate to 128,000 GPU although some will be air cooled. I won't second guess actual revenue but it looks promising. In Q4 they reported $5.31B and their guide was wide; $6B-$7B. Based on the above it looks, and there is some fill in the gaps work here, an additional 650 DLC servers which are circa 2.5M each , or $1.6B which would put them at the very high end of their guide of $7B. If EPS also comes in as per the guide, this would be $8.27 and 65M shares which translates to $546M net or 7.8% vs 7.6% the previous quarter. I am hoping to see a gross margin in the early 12s although the above looks very promising.

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                            Adam Kay
                            Global Moderator
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #20

                            There non gaap share count is 66M. Also pointing out that their revenue just 2 quarters ago(very recent) was $3.8B so as you can see they are growing very rapidly. We very much to see their margin start to improve which is should with the opening of their Malaysia factory and expansion of US operations. They need to file their 10-k within the next 4 weeks ideally.

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                              2BToo
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #21

                              Thanks. Looks like both Dingg and Adam were both right; my portfolio was down, but that was because the PHT gain was more than cancelled out by a drop in PHE.

                              A post-election rally into Christmas would be lovely!

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                              • A Adam Kay

                                Hi LP,

                                Screen Shot 2024-09-13 at 11.21.07.png

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                                2BToo
                                wrote last edited by
                                #22

                                @Adam-Kay

                                @Adam-Kay said in PHE and PHT:

                                Hi LP,

                                Screen Shot 2024-09-13 at 11.21.07.png

                                Guys,

                                Presuming this is OK with Adam/Nik/Cobens, would it be OK to have a thread where the up-to-date holdings of PHE and PHT are listed?

                                I've found this list from Adam but it's nigh on a year old and I know that things have changed since then.

                                A nice chap called Peter (peter.*******@gmail.com) did a clever Google Doc showing the listings in each portfolio with a simple performance tracker, but that is now out-of-date (it doesn't show Oracle, which I understand is a new part of PHT).

                                Thanks.

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                                  Adam Kay
                                  Global Moderator
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #23

                                  Hi O,

                                  Out:
                                  PYPL/PANW/TWLO

                                  IN:
                                  MU/ORCL/AVGO

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                                  • 2 Offline
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                                    2BToo
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #24

                                    Thanks. So the list now is as follows:

                                    GOOG
                                    META
                                    MSFT
                                    VRTX
                                    AAPL
                                    ORCL
                                    KLAC
                                    ADBE
                                    MEDP
                                    NVDA
                                    AVGO
                                    MU
                                    SMCI

                                    Does PHE remain unchanged?

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                                      Adam Kay
                                      Global Moderator
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #25

                                      The Equity portfolio, save for weight changes, remains unchanged, for now

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                                        LastPoster
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #26

                                        @Adam-Kay said in Oracle (ORCL):

                                        Medpace

                                        I did mention it here and an email will go out, probably next week

                                        According to the above (which is from the Oracle thread) I thought Medpace was to be sold

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                                          Ronski
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #27

                                          I have the following for PHT

                                          NASDAQ:AAPL Apple Inc
                                          NASDAQ:SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc
                                          NASDAQ:MSFT Microsoft Corp
                                          NASDAQ:NVDA NVIDIA Corp
                                          NASDAQ:GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C
                                          NASDAQ:META Meta Platforms Inc
                                          NASDAQ:VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
                                          NASDAQ:AVGO Broadcom Inc
                                          NASDAQ:KLAC KLA Corp
                                          NYSE:ORCL Oracle Corp
                                          NASDAQ:MU Micron Technology Inc
                                          NASDAQ:ADBE Adobe Inc

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                                          The value of your investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invested.

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