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  3. PHE and PHT

PHE and PHT

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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  • 2 Offline
    2 Offline
    2BToo
    wrote on last edited by
    #13

    Twitchy indeed. Things were going great guns earlier on this year but it seems to have been one step forward, two steps back for the summer. I'd hoped that the Fed dropping 50bps would have given the whole thing a good kick in the right direction but it hasn't. The strengthening pound vs. USD hasn't helped, but nonetheless things still seem stickier than I'd like.

    If anyone would like to put a finger in the air / consult their crystal ball and make a prediction of when things will get another decent boost then I'd love to hear. (I'm not sure I'll believe them, mind! πŸ™‚ )

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    • D Offline
      D Offline
      dingg
      wrote on last edited by
      #14

      Post election usa imo

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      • 2 Offline
        2 Offline
        2BToo
        wrote on last edited by
        #15

        Good point. Thanks dingg.

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        • 2 Offline
          2 Offline
          2BToo
          wrote on last edited by
          #16

          Well SMCI jumped like a startled grasshopper today so I'll be hoping for some nice numbers from PHT tomorrow. And possibly from IML too, as I think that their longer-term funds have a good bit of Super Micro in them.

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          • D Offline
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            dingg
            wrote on last edited by
            #17

            I reckon that you're a tad optimistic πŸ€”

            Almost everything else took a kick in the balls.

            Its a marathon not a sprint, I'm still about 1% off the yearly high thus far, been a fight to get back up there the past couple of months.

            Post election rally into Christmas, hopefully 🀞

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            • D Offline
              D Offline
              dingg
              wrote on last edited by dingg
              #18

              Better than I suspected, not much change at all on pht or iml
              πŸ‘

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              • A Offline
                A Offline
                Adam Kay
                Global Moderator
                wrote on last edited by
                #19

                PHT was modestly up. I would estimate +35bps. The wider market fell approx 100bps. Gainers were limited to AI related stocks due to SMCI stating that they had what is a record quarter due to DLC server shipments. Their quarterly result will be interesting. Last quarter they delivered 1,350 DLC and it sounds like they have delivered 2,000 this quarter which would equate to 128,000 GPU although some will be air cooled. I won't second guess actual revenue but it looks promising. In Q4 they reported $5.31B and their guide was wide; $6B-$7B. Based on the above it looks, and there is some fill in the gaps work here, an additional 650 DLC servers which are circa 2.5M each , or $1.6B which would put them at the very high end of their guide of $7B. If EPS also comes in as per the guide, this would be $8.27 and 65M shares which translates to $546M net or 7.8% vs 7.6% the previous quarter. I am hoping to see a gross margin in the early 12s although the above looks very promising.

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                • A Offline
                  A Offline
                  Adam Kay
                  Global Moderator
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #20

                  There non gaap share count is 66M. Also pointing out that their revenue just 2 quarters ago(very recent) was $3.8B so as you can see they are growing very rapidly. We very much to see their margin start to improve which is should with the opening of their Malaysia factory and expansion of US operations. They need to file their 10-k within the next 4 weeks ideally.

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                  • 2 Offline
                    2 Offline
                    2BToo
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #21

                    Thanks. Looks like both Dingg and Adam were both right; my portfolio was down, but that was because the PHT gain was more than cancelled out by a drop in PHE.

                    A post-election rally into Christmas would be lovely!

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                    • A Adam Kay

                      Hi LP,

                      Screen Shot 2024-09-13 at 11.21.07.png

                      2 Offline
                      2 Offline
                      2BToo
                      wrote last edited by
                      #22

                      @Adam-Kay

                      @Adam-Kay said in PHE and PHT:

                      Hi LP,

                      Screen Shot 2024-09-13 at 11.21.07.png

                      Guys,

                      Presuming this is OK with Adam/Nik/Cobens, would it be OK to have a thread where the up-to-date holdings of PHE and PHT are listed?

                      I've found this list from Adam but it's nigh on a year old and I know that things have changed since then.

                      A nice chap called Peter (peter.*******@gmail.com) did a clever Google Doc showing the listings in each portfolio with a simple performance tracker, but that is now out-of-date (it doesn't show Oracle, which I understand is a new part of PHT).

                      Thanks.

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                      • A Offline
                        A Offline
                        Adam Kay
                        Global Moderator
                        wrote last edited by
                        #23

                        Hi O,

                        Out:
                        PYPL/PANW/TWLO

                        IN:
                        MU/ORCL/AVGO

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                        • 2 Offline
                          2 Offline
                          2BToo
                          wrote last edited by
                          #24

                          Thanks. So the list now is as follows:

                          GOOG
                          META
                          MSFT
                          VRTX
                          AAPL
                          ORCL
                          KLAC
                          ADBE
                          MEDP
                          NVDA
                          AVGO
                          MU
                          SMCI

                          Does PHE remain unchanged?

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                          • A Offline
                            A Offline
                            Adam Kay
                            Global Moderator
                            wrote last edited by
                            #25

                            The Equity portfolio, save for weight changes, remains unchanged, for now

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                            • L Offline
                              L Offline
                              LastPoster
                              wrote last edited by
                              #26

                              @Adam-Kay said in Oracle (ORCL):

                              Medpace

                              I did mention it here and an email will go out, probably next week

                              According to the above (which is from the Oracle thread) I thought Medpace was to be sold

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                              • R Offline
                                R Offline
                                Ronski
                                wrote last edited by
                                #27

                                I have the following for PHT

                                NASDAQ:AAPL Apple Inc
                                NASDAQ:SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc
                                NASDAQ:MSFT Microsoft Corp
                                NASDAQ:NVDA NVIDIA Corp
                                NASDAQ:GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C
                                NASDAQ:META Meta Platforms Inc
                                NASDAQ:VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
                                NASDAQ:AVGO Broadcom Inc
                                NASDAQ:KLAC KLA Corp
                                NYSE:ORCL Oracle Corp
                                NASDAQ:MU Micron Technology Inc
                                NASDAQ:ADBE Adobe Inc

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                                • A Offline
                                  A Offline
                                  Adam Kay
                                  Global Moderator
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #28

                                  Yep-medp too. Ron’s list is correct

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