Micron Technology
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When AI becomes self aware!!
I’ve seen the documentary with Arnold Schwarzenegger
@Renmure-Jim said in Micron Technology:
When AI becomes self aware!!
I’ve seen the documentary with Arnold Schwarzenegger
I thought that was Will Smith
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Micron Breaks Ground on $24 Billion Advanced Wafer Fabrication Facility in Singapore
Micron has broken ground on a new advanced wafer fabrication facility at its existing NAND manufacturing campus in Singapore, marking a major expansion of its global manufacturing footprint. The project represents a planned USD 24 billion investment and underscores Micron’s long-term commitment to Singapore as a strategic semiconductor hub.
The facility will be Singapore’s first double-storey wafer fab and is designed to deliver up to 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space when fully built out. Initial wafer production is scheduled to begin in the second half of calendar 2028, with capacity ramped in phases to match market demand.
Once operational, the fab will manufacture advanced 3D NAND memory wafers, supporting Micron’s latest and future generations of storage technology. Output from the facility will serve applications across AI infrastructure, data centres, enterprise and consumer solid-state drives, and mobile devices, where demand is rising rapidly due to data-centric and AI workloads.The new fab will form a core part of Micron’s NAND Center of Excellence in Singapore, providing critical capacity for ongoing technology transitions. Co-locating R&D and manufacturing is expected to improve efficiency, accelerate time-to-market and strengthen collaboration with academic and industry partners.
Micron also confirmed that its previously announced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) advanced packaging facility at the same site remains on track to contribute to HBM supply in calendar 2027, creating potential synergies across NAND and DRAM operations.
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SK Hynix just reported, blowing away estimates and delivering new record revenue, margins and earnings, upped their dividend and share buy backs. Capex is up materially. This can only bode well for Micron. I believe Micron and others are in negotiations with their customers to lock in supply for 2027.
Context. The new Rubin NVL72 which uses HBM4. Each GPU requires '8 stacks' at $500ish/stack, $6,400 X 72 before packaging and integration so it's a safe bet that every server rack contains $500K of HBM4! It's not hard to see this turning into a Gold-Rush. Micron is expected to grow 100% in 2026 and at least 50% in 2027 and still it trades at a PE of 10
have a good day, all
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some real time SK Hynix management comments:
Other Metrics:
Says growth momentum accelerated further in 4Q
Sees 1Q DRAM bit growth flat Q/Q
Sees 1Q NAND bit growth slight decrease Q/Q
Continues to consider US stock listing; no decision
Demand reflects HBM3E strength; “shares… roughly tripled since the start of September”Bloomberg insights:
HBM3E exclusive supplier for Microsoft Maia 200, per South Korean media report
Korean chipmakers vying for HBM4 certification (MU already certified)
HBM market CAGR projected ~25% through 2030
planned 19T won chip packaging facilities in Cheongju
shift toward net cash; Moody’s upgrade in mid December
Citi: DRAM ASP expected +120% this year; NAND ASP +90% this yearMgmt. Commentary:
“There are no easy wins and levers from a supply perspective to meet this new demand driver.”
“Hyperscalers and AI customers are looking at what they are willing to pay… through a very different lens.” -
Jensen is in Taiwan this weekend, negotiating H200 production ramp for China. In an interview yesterday, JS said... Jensen Huang: “We need memory for… HBM memory for performance. We need LPDDR for low-power memory.”
Reporter: Is memory constraint an issue for NVIDIA this year?
Jensen Huang: “The entire supply chain is challenging this year because demand is so much more. Supply has been growing 100% every year, but demand is going faster than that. We are going to have a very good year.”
We are entering a Memory Supercycle
Micron is a massive supplier of HBM 3E and 4 along all forms of DDR. ASP are up materially and forecast to continue to rise at least 50% this year. Supply too is ramping very fast.
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I thought it was dirt cheap at 90 and it was with a 6 multiple worst case but I didn't expect it to run 5X in 1 year and that's because no one saw the ASP explode 130%.
It's the realm of thematic investing. If AI wins then the suppliers will win and our job is to look for value. We purchased MU with proceeds from Twilio mainly and realised $140. Twilio is -ve 18% over this period. And look at Palantir, we discussed its obscene over valuation and that has only managed 17%.
Put it this way. Micron will earn $40B net in 2026 calendar. Palantir will be lucky to earn 1.5B but only a month ago they were valued the same and Micron has a growth rate 3X Palantir. In the next 2 years Micron is likely to earn $100B. Palantir would do well to match that in 25(and probably never will). Which is the better investment? It's not even close. A 10 year old could work that out.
I am genuinely excited to see what Nvidia report in a few weeks. It's going to be epic, imo
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Micron Technology ($MU) is poised to gain market share in supplying DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to Google and OpenAI, rather than aggressively pursuing Nvidia, which is notorious for squeezing suppliers' margins.
The next two years focus is on profit maximisation, with Micron making smart strategic moves.Evidence strongly supports this view amid the ongoing AI-driven memory boom.
Micron's HBM production for calendar 2026 is fully sold out, with agreements on price and volume completed, including for its industry-leading HBM4.
The company has gained HBM market share against rivals SK Hynix and Samsung, particularly after Samsung's compatibility issues with Nvidia's Blackwell chips, allowing Micron to capture share in high-margin AI segments.Hyperscalers like Google (via TPUs) and OpenAI drive massive demand, often paying premium prices in a supply-constrained market where shortages persist beyond 2026 and into 2027 or later.
While SK Hynix remains dominant for Nvidia, Micron benefits from allocations to Google/OpenAI ecosystems, where less aggressive margin pressure enables better profitability.Micron has pivoted strategically—exiting much of the consumer memory market to prioritise AI-grade HBM—boosting record revenues, gross margins (nearing 68%), and earnings. Analysts project explosive HBM growth, with the total addressable market reaching $100 billion by 2028 (earlier than prior forecasts), and Micron's DRAM/HBM momentum continuing strongly.
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TD Cowen sees upside for Micron toward $60 in earnings per share in 2026, above the firm's prior bull case of $50. This opens the door for a $600 stock price over time, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The tightness in the DRAM market will last for multiple years, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects a "gradual re-rating path" toward 12-times earnings on a "normalied" $50 per share earnings power.
Crazy numbers and a great example how the market totally mis priced Micron with analysts estimating a mere $20 eps only 9 months ago. We suggested $45. I also think as the growth reveals itself to be more structural(and we believe it is) this low multiple should expand.
Feb 11(tomorrow)-MU have an investors conference/fireside chat format so we will receive an update on how they are progressing
Something else I noticed. Pundits are quick to point out Microns 'historical' PE being in the 10-12 range. What they are missing is that is an average and at certain periods of glut a few years ago they made no money at all and or losses, i.e the multiple was negative! A very good example as to why you don't just accept a number as fact without digging into why. Micron has often traded at a PE of 20X and I believe it can get there in time. And why not if it keeps delivering growth, which we believe it will, in spades.
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Just a reminder. The recent days set piece by Semi Analysis stating Nvidia havent ordered HBM4 from MU which is causing the softness, is intentional and conflated. The first HBM4 chips are needed by March/April. Micron have always planned for an H2 ramp, so stating they aren't included is just stating the obvious. They never planned to be. But SA have presented their (rag) article in a way to sew the seeds of doubt.
The CEO is presenting tomorrow and I am sure he will put this FUD to rest.
Micron Chairman Sanjay Mehrotra comments in Dec in conjunction with Q1 reporting : "We have completed agreements on price and volume for our ENTIRE CALENDAR 2026 HBM SUPPLY, INCLUDING MICRON'S INDUSTRY-LEADING HBM4.
.We forecast an HBM TAM CAGR (COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) of 40% through 2028 from approx. $35 billion in 2025 to around $100 billion in 2028 (projected to arrive two years earlier than our previous outlook.".
MICRON'S HBM4, WITH INDUSTRURY LEADING SPEED of over 11 Gbps, is on track to ramp with high yields in the second calendar quarter of 2026.
