Micron Technology
-
When AI becomes self aware!!
I’ve seen the documentary with Arnold Schwarzenegger
-
Whenever anything 'grows' a question asked my many will always be 'when will the music stop'. It's a speculative question which is ill posed and isn't analytical. Spending won't stop and it may not plateau. It can't grow at 200% for ever nor is that necessarily important.
Near term, say 2 years, results are irrelevant. The investment will be made. Longer term more monetisation and LLM progress is important.
I don't think of it in terms of 'AI'. More HPC. For now and over the next 2 years I see little derailing the investment-our job is to keep our finger on the pulse and looking ahead to the next visible time frame. Our goal is to stay informed, stay consistent and stay focussed on the companies and the people that run them.
-
When AI becomes self aware!!
I’ve seen the documentary with Arnold Schwarzenegger
@Renmure-Jim said in Micron Technology:
When AI becomes self aware!!
I’ve seen the documentary with Arnold Schwarzenegger
I thought that was Will Smith
-
Micron Breaks Ground on $24 Billion Advanced Wafer Fabrication Facility in Singapore
Micron has broken ground on a new advanced wafer fabrication facility at its existing NAND manufacturing campus in Singapore, marking a major expansion of its global manufacturing footprint. The project represents a planned USD 24 billion investment and underscores Micron’s long-term commitment to Singapore as a strategic semiconductor hub.
The facility will be Singapore’s first double-storey wafer fab and is designed to deliver up to 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space when fully built out. Initial wafer production is scheduled to begin in the second half of calendar 2028, with capacity ramped in phases to match market demand.
Once operational, the fab will manufacture advanced 3D NAND memory wafers, supporting Micron’s latest and future generations of storage technology. Output from the facility will serve applications across AI infrastructure, data centres, enterprise and consumer solid-state drives, and mobile devices, where demand is rising rapidly due to data-centric and AI workloads.The new fab will form a core part of Micron’s NAND Center of Excellence in Singapore, providing critical capacity for ongoing technology transitions. Co-locating R&D and manufacturing is expected to improve efficiency, accelerate time-to-market and strengthen collaboration with academic and industry partners.
Micron also confirmed that its previously announced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) advanced packaging facility at the same site remains on track to contribute to HBM supply in calendar 2027, creating potential synergies across NAND and DRAM operations.
-
SK Hynix just reported, blowing away estimates and delivering new record revenue, margins and earnings, upped their dividend and share buy backs. Capex is up materially. This can only bode well for Micron. I believe Micron and others are in negotiations with their customers to lock in supply for 2027.
Context. The new Rubin NVL72 which uses HBM4. Each GPU requires '8 stacks' at $500ish/stack, $6,400 X 72 before packaging and integration so it's a safe bet that every server rack contains $500K of HBM4! It's not hard to see this turning into a Gold-Rush. Micron is expected to grow 100% in 2026 and at least 50% in 2027 and still it trades at a PE of 10
have a good day, all
-
some real time SK Hynix management comments:
Other Metrics:
Says growth momentum accelerated further in 4Q
Sees 1Q DRAM bit growth flat Q/Q
Sees 1Q NAND bit growth slight decrease Q/Q
Continues to consider US stock listing; no decision
Demand reflects HBM3E strength; “shares… roughly tripled since the start of September”Bloomberg insights:
HBM3E exclusive supplier for Microsoft Maia 200, per South Korean media report
Korean chipmakers vying for HBM4 certification (MU already certified)
HBM market CAGR projected ~25% through 2030
planned 19T won chip packaging facilities in Cheongju
shift toward net cash; Moody’s upgrade in mid December
Citi: DRAM ASP expected +120% this year; NAND ASP +90% this yearMgmt. Commentary:
“There are no easy wins and levers from a supply perspective to meet this new demand driver.”
“Hyperscalers and AI customers are looking at what they are willing to pay… through a very different lens.” -
Jensen is in Taiwan this weekend, negotiating H200 production ramp for China. In an interview yesterday, JS said... Jensen Huang: “We need memory for… HBM memory for performance. We need LPDDR for low-power memory.”
Reporter: Is memory constraint an issue for NVIDIA this year?
Jensen Huang: “The entire supply chain is challenging this year because demand is so much more. Supply has been growing 100% every year, but demand is going faster than that. We are going to have a very good year.”
We are entering a Memory Supercycle
Micron is a massive supplier of HBM 3E and 4 along all forms of DDR. ASP are up materially and forecast to continue to rise at least 50% this year. Supply too is ramping very fast.
-
I thought it was dirt cheap at 90 and it was with a 6 multiple worst case but I didn't expect it to run 5X in 1 year and that's because no one saw the ASP explode 130%.
It's the realm of thematic investing. If AI wins then the suppliers will win and our job is to look for value. We purchased MU with proceeds from Twilio mainly and realised $140. Twilio is -ve 18% over this period. And look at Palantir, we discussed its obscene over valuation and that has only managed 17%.
Put it this way. Micron will earn $40B net in 2026 calendar. Palantir will be lucky to earn 1.5B but only a month ago they were valued the same and Micron has a growth rate 3X Palantir. In the next 2 years Micron is likely to earn $100B. Palantir would do well to match that in 25(and probably never will). Which is the better investment? It's not even close. A 10 year old could work that out.
I am genuinely excited to see what Nvidia report in a few weeks. It's going to be epic, imo
-
