Micron Technology
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some real time SK Hynix management comments:
Other Metrics:
Says growth momentum accelerated further in 4Q
Sees 1Q DRAM bit growth flat Q/Q
Sees 1Q NAND bit growth slight decrease Q/Q
Continues to consider US stock listing; no decision
Demand reflects HBM3E strength; “shares… roughly tripled since the start of September”Bloomberg insights:
HBM3E exclusive supplier for Microsoft Maia 200, per South Korean media report
Korean chipmakers vying for HBM4 certification (MU already certified)
HBM market CAGR projected ~25% through 2030
planned 19T won chip packaging facilities in Cheongju
shift toward net cash; Moody’s upgrade in mid December
Citi: DRAM ASP expected +120% this year; NAND ASP +90% this yearMgmt. Commentary:
“There are no easy wins and levers from a supply perspective to meet this new demand driver.”
“Hyperscalers and AI customers are looking at what they are willing to pay… through a very different lens.” -
Jensen is in Taiwan this weekend, negotiating H200 production ramp for China. In an interview yesterday, JS said... Jensen Huang: “We need memory for… HBM memory for performance. We need LPDDR for low-power memory.”
Reporter: Is memory constraint an issue for NVIDIA this year?
Jensen Huang: “The entire supply chain is challenging this year because demand is so much more. Supply has been growing 100% every year, but demand is going faster than that. We are going to have a very good year.”
We are entering a Memory Supercycle
Micron is a massive supplier of HBM 3E and 4 along all forms of DDR. ASP are up materially and forecast to continue to rise at least 50% this year. Supply too is ramping very fast.
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I thought it was dirt cheap at 90 and it was with a 6 multiple worst case but I didn't expect it to run 5X in 1 year and that's because no one saw the ASP explode 130%.
It's the realm of thematic investing. If AI wins then the suppliers will win and our job is to look for value. We purchased MU with proceeds from Twilio mainly and realised $140. Twilio is -ve 18% over this period. And look at Palantir, we discussed its obscene over valuation and that has only managed 17%.
Put it this way. Micron will earn $40B net in 2026 calendar. Palantir will be lucky to earn 1.5B but only a month ago they were valued the same and Micron has a growth rate 3X Palantir. In the next 2 years Micron is likely to earn $100B. Palantir would do well to match that in 25(and probably never will). Which is the better investment? It's not even close. A 10 year old could work that out.
I am genuinely excited to see what Nvidia report in a few weeks. It's going to be epic, imo
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