Micron Technology

[Adam Kay]

Micron is on a roll.......

To think the recent correct was gifting MU stock at $61 (April 4). It's a great case study in the tried and tested strategy of buying quality based on evidence (which was steering us in the face) and holding long term.

[Adam Kay]

[Adam Kay]

Micron report on the 25th

Wall Street expects them to post a quarterly EPS of $1.61 on revenue of $8.85B.

I think they will almost certainly beat this with revenue circa $9.1B and up to $1.75 imo

[Adam Kay]

Write up tomorrow. 9.3b and 1.91. The guide was high in the extreme. 2.35-2.60 and 11b. This is quarter to quarter remember. Brilliant result well ahead of the highest expectations. Bodes very well for the related sectors.

They blew it away and guided ‘off the charts’

[Adam Kay]

Here are Microns results plus highlights from their post earnings conference call. Top line growth , EPS growth driven by margin expansion. Could not have asked for a better report card!

Record Q3 revenue of USD 9.3 billion, up 37% YoY and 15% QoQ, driven by robust demand for DRAM and NAND products.

Earnings per share (EPS) of USD 1.91, surpassing analyst expectations of USD 1.59 (20.13% surprise), up 200% YoY and 22% QoQ.

Gross margin improved to 39%, up 110 basis points QoQ, reflecting optimised pricing and cost management.

Free cash flow reached over USD 1.9 billion, the highest in six years, indicating robust financial health.

Data centre revenue more than doubled YoY, reaching a record level, fuelled by AI-driven demand.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue grew nearly 50% QoQ, exceeding USD 1 billion, with HBM sold out for calendar 2025.

Technology and Product Leadership:
Record DRAM revenue with the 1-gamma DRAM node (using EUV) offering 20% lower power, 15% better performance, and over 30% improvement in bit density compared to 1-beta DRAM.

Gen9 NAND node is the industry’s fastest TLC-based NAND, with disciplined ramp-up to balance supply and demand.

HBM3E offers 20% lower power consumption than competitors’ 8-high solutions, with 50% higher memory capacity and industry-leading performance. HBM4 is expected to ramp in 2026 with over 60% bandwidth increase.

Leadership in low-power (LP) memory for data centres, reducing memory power consumption by over two-thirds compared to D5, with a transition to SOCAMM form factor planned.

Strategic Positioning and Investments:
Well-positioned for AI-driven demand, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasising Micron’s role in the “transformative era” of AI.

Significant investments in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, including a new HBM advanced packaging facility in Singapore, to support future growth.

Achieving share gains in high-margin product categories, strengthening customer relationships.

Key Financial Metrics (Q3 2025) with YoY and QoQ Changes, Plus Q4 2025 Guidance
Revenue: USD 9.3 billion
YoY: +37% (from USD 6.8 billion in Q3 2024)

QoQ: +15% (from USD 8.1 billion in Q2 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): USD 1.91
YoY: +200% (from USD 0.64 in Q3 2024)

QoQ: +22% (from USD 1.57 in Q2 2025)

Gross Margin: 39%
YoY: Not explicitly stated, but significantly improved from negative or low margins in Q3 2024 due to market recovery

QoQ: +110 basis points (from 37.9% in Q2 2025)

Free Cash Flow: USD 1.9 billion
YoY: Highest in six years, specific YoY change not provided

QoQ: Significant increase, specific QoQ change not provided

Q4 2025 Guidance:
Revenue: USD 10.7 billion (±USD 200 million)

Gross Margin: 42% (±50 basis points)

EPS: USD 2.51 (±USD 0.10)

[2BToo]

Lovely numbers. And yet it is down 0.65% on the day.

Markets are irrational? I guess we see this right here, eh?

[dingg]

Talking heads saying, down due to outlook statement going forward, suppose it's just had a good run and a few taking profit

[Adam Kay]

Talking heads don't know what they are talking about.:) The stock is at its multi month high-most likely derivatives out of the money calls-option writers don't need the hedge(the shares) so sell them. No concerns here. It's a cyclical business yes but this cycle is going to last a very long time so I would say it's secular plus other memory segments which have been depressed due to consumer electronics being flat can only get better. The fed PE is about 11X which is dirt cheap imo.

[Ducati996R]

I see we had another “expert” making noises yesterday that the second half business will be poor for Micron

[Adam Kay]

every quarter will be better than the last. Micron will double revenue and earnings over the next 4-5 years.