Micron Technology
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Wow and wow
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yes new high MU and KLAC
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I can't take all the credit
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At Computex, yesterday Chey Tae-won, SK Hynix Chair, said 'memory' will be constrained despite aggressive expansion in bit growth, until at least 2030.
It's the end of the Q for Micron (May 29). Earnings are scheduled to be reported Wed June 24th:
I expect Revenue of $40B and net income of $25B (EPS $24)
I expect the Q4 guide to be close to $50B and net income > $30B (EPS $29-$30)
Management seem to consistently play it very safe so +$8B-$10B is likely re the guide. It seems somewhat academic given the market conditions (every wafer sold at very high margins), demand approx 2X supply and getting more favourable for the vendor. Similar to the Nvidia cadence, ever Q is more and will be same for many many quarters. -
Last night SK Hynix fell 12% in Korea and MU is off 8% in sympathy - i.e no valid reason
The Koreans like a bit of gamble and apparently margin trading is getting a bit out of hand, 40B USD in extended broker margin mainly on what they call 'ant'(small) retail investor accounts and in particular older investors which isn't to be encouraged. But what it creates is abnormal momentum behind certain assets. So the regulator stepped in and limited this activity and big surprise the stock fell.
The only relevance is it reminds investors that moves down(sharp) can occur. Anyway MU is back to its price yesterday and will report earnings tomorrow
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Micron are scheduled to report fiscal Q3 earnings tomorrow after the close
The guide was provided whilst reporting Q2 results of $24B/$12, so guidance was extremely high, +40% QoQ(revenue) and almost 60% on EPS-Quarter to Quarter, not annual.
The higher analyst expectations sitting at $35B and $20.50. I think even this is too low. It's just my opinion but based on what ive observed this quarter I think late 30's, $38-$39B whilst extreme, is possible and around $23-$24 EPS. Margins expected in the 83-84% range.
What I want to hear about is managements long term view on the NAND,DRAM markets, details on additional LTA's, ideally that demand is growing such that the ability to supply is less that the '50% to 2 3rds' quoted previously, that margins are expected to remain elevated.
Updates on HBM4 yield/bit growth and transition to the 1 gamma node being on track or even ahead. Greenfield site updates and roadmap.
Maybe even a stock split-it's something id like to see although technically has no real value based impact, it does improve access and liquidity.
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Killed it-41b and 24 bucks plus 85% margin. Guide is 50b
eps guide 30. Wow. -
It’s up 10% after hours. And frankly that’s a joke.
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Insatiable demand-quote. 16 Long Term supply agreements signed-up from 1 last Q. Typically 5 years term representing a min of 40% and up to 50% of total output through 2030 calendar year.
G9 and 1gamma ramping well. Demand is so high management can not see any relief, period. Margins guide 86%.
Multi decade expansion expected due to robotics and autonomous vehicles (check)
Revenue YoY +345%
Gross margin +4,690 bps
Operating Income +1,436%
Net Income +1,398%PE Fwd sub 10 and likely closer to 7. The company is making MSFT/Apple+ money and growing quickly. Not much else to say, just staggering. No stock split hey ho.
From the end of this year 'we intend to return 100% of our free cash via stock buy backs'The stock is trading at $1,200 after hours.
Outlook/Guide
Margins 86%/revenue $50B and EPS $31comparison
Quarterly Operating Income is growing +7B/Q so I would expect Micron earnings to exceed all companies bar Nvidia within another Q or so.
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The quote of the earnings call. Is anyone listening? To 'begin' in a couple of years?
“Humanoid robots carry 10 times the amount of memory as an average L2+ vehicle. We expect a sustained substantial multi-decade memory demand cycle to begin in the latter part of this decade.” — Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra
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Three weeks ago we said..... it's nice to be right. It seems the biggest analysts on WS read our pages having received some DMs-pretty cool
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@Adam-Kay said in Micron Technology:
It’s up 10% after hours. And frankly that’s a joke.
As in it shouldnt be up that much?
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More i think,maybe 20%
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I like your Nr better
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@Adam-Kay said in Micron Technology:
It’s up 10% after hours. And frankly that’s a joke.
As in it shouldnt be up that much?
@Slow-Horses A beat and raise like that imo deserved 50%
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@Slow-Horses A beat and raise like that imo deserved 50%
@Adam-Kay said in Micron Technology:
@Slow-Horses A beat and raise like that imo deserved 50%
wowsers!
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just my opinion
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What’s your thoughts on the reports I was seeing yesterday regarding no shortage of memory and potential price fixing