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Have you had chance to digest and pick the bones from the figures etc from last night yet Adam …thanking you in advance
@Ducati996R said in SMCI:
Have you had chance to digest and pick the bones from the figures etc from last night yet Adam …thanking you in advance
Ha - I came here to ask that very question!
EPS was 41 cents against 44 expected.
Revenue $5.76bn against $5.89 expected.Shares are down by around 14% today (unsurprisingly).
Revenue for current quarter is "$6-7bn" - somewhat vague.
But these are simple figures; there will be a story behind them which Adam will pick out much better than I ever could.
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I listened to the call last night. The main thing I wanted to see was margin being improved and it was flat. I can live with the revenue although I also wanted to see +1.5B at the midpoint i.e a $7-$8B guide. All told we made 200% realised and a further 71% unrealised (real time) based in dollars so a few points +/- on the fx.
For me this earnings call was their opportunity to back up the talk with action. They didn't have a lot of conviction in their statements. I'm very happy with the returns over a short period of time but with questions remaining over their margin expansion and other opportunities I don't think it's a long term hold.
With all investment decisions there is opportunity cost and another big factor for me is a management team who have a very clear view of their execution plan and the sector they operate in.
I think SM management lack the visibility. But in saying that, SM earn more money than HPE and Dell. Dell in particular are making almost nothing from their AI racks...2% net.
What I see with AI servers is a primary mover, being Nvidia, racing at such a pace with annual updates(architecture), their ODMs are finding it difficult to keep pace, not to mention expensive.
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There are new opportunities being worked up and in due course we will let you know
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As always appreciate your insights
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Having had a few days to think about it, where's the future for SMCI? Their stock has continued to slide in the last couple of days although it's only down about 5% in the last month.
Does it have a future? Ether short- or long-term? If the chaps at Cobens looking at getting out then what's the horizon on this?
And what would anyone suggest I should do with the grand or so's worth of SMCI I hold outside of Cobens? Flog it? Flog half of it? Keep it for sh1ts and giggles? I'm in fairly good profit on it so can't complain.
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Our weight changes regularly. On a fundamentals basis the stock is not over valued imo so I am not so much concerned about the multiple. I can't comment on anyones personal Extra-Portfolio holdings.
The ideas im working on at the moment factor. As mentioned it's all about relative opportunities.
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Are these boys still in the Tech fund
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just a smidge
