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All
5 August -
a sneak peak at the cabling-interesting, perhaps only because it cost somewhere between 1.2-1.5 billion and it's difficult to comprehend 'thousands of miles of the stuff' Whoever installed it, made some nice margin for sure!
Imagine calling the supplier hi we need some cable-the good stuff. OK how many metres do you want , umm 24 million metres (snigger). Alrighty then that'll be 1.1 billion-how will you be paying?
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A big move up in the price today ….looking very positive
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As many know, they report tonight. Generally, I'm bullish, however it's very difficult to arrive at 'a figure' with any degree of accuracy. Suffice to say the factors which impact their business are all looking very positive.
Analyst consensus is for a Q4 revenue figure of around $5.9B and EPS around 40cents. I am far more interested in the Q1 guide and their EPS guide, which should be at least $1B ahead and my wish list is +$1.5B. This would be around $7.5B at the midpoint(analyst consensus is $6.18B and 60c-they will surely blow that away (it's feasible they manage 90c). I also think GM improved during Q4 and should improve further in Q1 and beyond.
Expect management to talk about the market moving rapidly to liquid cooled solutions and in particular their DLC-2 being the market leading solution. Updates on DLC capacity, hoping for 3k racks per month, new DC deployments being 30-35% DLC and SM's market share being 65-70%.
I was away in sunny Spain last week
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Have you had chance to digest and pick the bones from the figures etc from last night yet Adam …thanking you in advance
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Have you had chance to digest and pick the bones from the figures etc from last night yet Adam …thanking you in advance
@Ducati996R said in SMCI:
Have you had chance to digest and pick the bones from the figures etc from last night yet Adam …thanking you in advance
Ha - I came here to ask that very question!
EPS was 41 cents against 44 expected.
Revenue $5.76bn against $5.89 expected.Shares are down by around 14% today (unsurprisingly).
Revenue for current quarter is "$6-7bn" - somewhat vague.
But these are simple figures; there will be a story behind them which Adam will pick out much better than I ever could.
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I listened to the call last night. The main thing I wanted to see was margin being improved and it was flat. I can live with the revenue although I also wanted to see +1.5B at the midpoint i.e a $7-$8B guide. All told we made 200% realised and a further 71% unrealised (real time) based in dollars so a few points +/- on the fx.
For me this earnings call was their opportunity to back up the talk with action. They didn't have a lot of conviction in their statements. I'm very happy with the returns over a short period of time but with questions remaining over their margin expansion and other opportunities I don't think it's a long term hold.
With all investment decisions there is opportunity cost and another big factor for me is a management team who have a very clear view of their execution plan and the sector they operate in.
I think SM management lack the visibility. But in saying that, SM earn more money than HPE and Dell. Dell in particular are making almost nothing from their AI racks...2% net.
What I see with AI servers is a primary mover, being Nvidia, racing at such a pace with annual updates(architecture), their ODMs are finding it difficult to keep pace, not to mention expensive.
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There are new opportunities being worked up and in due course we will let you know
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As always appreciate your insights
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Having had a few days to think about it, where's the future for SMCI? Their stock has continued to slide in the last couple of days although it's only down about 5% in the last month.
Does it have a future? Ether short- or long-term? If the chaps at Cobens looking at getting out then what's the horizon on this?
And what would anyone suggest I should do with the grand or so's worth of SMCI I hold outside of Cobens? Flog it? Flog half of it? Keep it for sh1ts and giggles? I'm in fairly good profit on it so can't complain.
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Our weight changes regularly. On a fundamentals basis the stock is not over valued imo so I am not so much concerned about the multiple. I can't comment on anyones personal Extra-Portfolio holdings.
The ideas im working on at the moment factor. As mentioned it's all about relative opportunities.
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Are these boys still in the Tech fund
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just a smidge
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Dragging up an old stock here, but SMCI aren't doing that shabbily of late; up 46% in the last month and 86% in the last six months. I know that I don't have the research or knowledge to comment on why they're doing OK and how they might do in the future but I'm glad I held onto my paltry 23 shares!
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Hi O,
Yes it has. Speculation that they're shipping a lot of high end metal and clearly will ship a lot more given the wider market demands. There is only so much DLC capacity. We will see what they report and importantly what their margins are like.
There is no doubt that SM will grow revenue-no doubt at all but the billion dollar question is, can they improve margins and start fly wheeling earnings. If they gain traction on the services side, the 'total DC solution' end to end, design, build the bespoke racks, install cabling(lucrative) and manage the DC via a...“4-hour parts replacement SLA” “Hot spares / parts on-site service”. They manufacture the cooling towers, the power supplies and chassis via related parties so are nicely vertically integrated. All the ingredients for success. And without question SM tech is just better than the competition. Management needs to up its game.
The bottom line is we invested in the stock at $26.50 because we saw opportunity. We've done very well. Watching with interest
