Thoughts on short term market direction
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he slipped that passed me- ok here goes
In the name of God, Saint Michael, and Saint George, I dub thee knight. Arise, Sir Alex.
@Adam-Kay Careful with that sword, my Lord
I've made a little graph that shows my current risk, and I wasn't happy with it.
NVDA and TSLA were big numbers compared to the rest. Too much money in volatile stocks. I just reduced the risk by reducing the exposure.
Your risk list above is a good one. My volatility appetite is high for 10% of investment, medium for 80%, and low for 10%.
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Your age and your risk appetite are no doubt closely linked.
I sometimes feel I buck the trend by accepting a reasonable amount of risk (wrong side of 60, unwaged for 4½ yearsâŚ.love how autocarrot changed that to âunwashedâ
).
âLow riskâ here for 10% of our âwealthââŚ.enough for us to live on for perhaps 3-4 years if needed; âmed-highâ for the rest
â
ď¸
That said, we feel fortunate with our lifestyle, & donât have massively extravagant tastes, so perhaps can afford to take more risks
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I would say age and risk, other thinks being equal, are linked. But let's not confuse/conflate risk. A real world example. Bob and his wife are 80, they have gilt edged DB pensions index linked paying ÂŁ6k per month. All their ISA investments(7 figs) are equity and growth. The check list/factors still apply it's just that Bobs situation is he is net in a low risk situation.
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I would say age and risk, other thinks being equal, are linked. But let's not confuse/conflate risk. A real world example. Bob and his wife are 80, they have gilt edged DB pensions index linked paying ÂŁ6k per month. All their ISA investments(7 figs) are equity and growth. The check list/factors still apply it's just that Bobs situation is he is net in a low risk situation.
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Not sure whether to add a new thread for âmedium term directionâ, but this one could be perhaps extended to that (with medium being beyond 12 months out).
Any speculative thoughts on where things are moving? Feels positive for the major tech firmsâŚ.although I fully expect some market pull back around/after Christmas (short term) before climbing again late next year. Based on gut reaction feel, & not much else!
(unrelated aside - @Adam-Kay & @Nik-Burrows , you have emails from meâŚdoesnât appear any way to message people on this forum)
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Hi Mike, I responded yesterday.
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Next Tuesday you will hear from Jensen Huang and Kress (CFO). That will be the driver. I expect them to use many superlatives in describing not just excellent demand but accelerating demand. They could report revenue close to $60B but they are constrained so logic says closer to $56-57 and a guide well into the $60s. Imo it doesn't matter so long as margins are intact and they should be. The situation is if they had 100b in product they'd sell it but they don't (yet).
My numbers are $57B and $1.26(margin 74)and a guide of $64B for Q4 with margins increasing 5-600bps to almost 75%
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responded Mike, with the header(copy).
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Next Tuesday you will hear from Jensen Huang and Kress (CFO). That will be the driver. I expect them to use many superlatives in describing not just excellent demand but accelerating demand. They could report revenue close to $60B but they are constrained so logic says closer to $56-57 and a guide well into the $60s. Imo it doesn't matter so long as margins are intact and they should be. The situation is if they had 100b in product they'd sell it but they don't (yet).
My numbers are $57B and $1.26(margin 74)and a guide of $64B for Q4 with margins increasing 5-600bps to almost 75%
@Adam-Kay said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Next Tuesday you will hear from Jensen Huang and Kress (CFO). That will be the driver. I expect them to use many superlatives in describing not just excellent demand but accelerating demand. They could report revenue close to $60B but they are constrained so logic says closer to $56-57 and a guide well into the $60s. Imo it doesn't matter so long as margins are intact and they should be. The situation is if they had 100b in product they'd sell it but they don't (yet).
My numbers are $57B and $1.26(margin 74)and a guide of $64B for Q4 with margins increasing 5-600bps to almost 75%
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The guide is 65. Details tomorrow. Exceeded all expectations
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Jensen told me Tuesday. My bad
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Guide margin 74.8. All gpuâs sold out-China irrelevant obvious. The 60-70-80 cadence is intact. Future up 400 points.
Bubbles forming, private businesses, crowd strike, palantir, anthropic value sept 183 billion. Anthropic value Nov 350b- thatâs an interesting valuation delta. However nvidia is not the same. Everything we own is grounded in rationality.
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Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
@Ronski said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
Curious, what happened today, was looking nice and green early afternoon, by 17:00 a see of red on PHT?
Just usual market weirdness or something else?
I'm interested in the answer to this one too...
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According to the Guardian, its the AI Bubble fears again.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/20/stock-markets-ai-nvidia
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The marketâs reaction to AI spending has been flat-out shortsighted. Investors want instant profit from something that, by design, requires massive upfront investment. Itâs the same mentality that would look at a half-built city and complain it isnât generating rent yet.
AI infrastructure isnât a quick trade; itâs a multi-year buildout of compute, data pipelines, model capability, and product integration. Spending heavily now isnât âwastefulâ â itâs the cost of owning the future. Every major technological leap has followed this pattern: invest aggressively, endure a period where the cash flow looks ugly, then harvest the returns once the system is fully built and scaled.
Markets pretending this should behave like a consumer app launch are being irrational. You donât build power grids, highways, or telecom networks for short-term comfort. You build them because once theyâre in place, the monetisation becomes unavoidable and enormous.
It's not even as though the names selling off are even vaguely correlated to the perceived concern.
I see this as just a one of those market quirks. It will find something else to focus on in short order. Like rates 'cos jobs data was good'
