Micron Technology
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I think the sector will remain volatile and range bound until we get some concrete info from senior management. The bears won't capitulate without a fight-no doubts, why, because many are paid to generate FUD. As we have said before, the thesis is not based on ever increasing price rises. 25% bit growth is a given and that'll do imo. I don't see prices dropping-basic economic theory says so.
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Micron gave a fireside chat today at Keybancs Tech conference, where senior executives spoke about what is happening. Brilliant commentary.
This is far more bullish than the market appears to appreciate.
The latest management comments from Micron are, in my view, exceptionally bullish and point to a significant rerating of the shares.
The key message is that demand is not merely strong — it is running substantially ahead of supply, and the imbalance is getting worse. Management indicated that Micron cannot currently meet even half of customer requirements, versus the previously stated 50–67%. That is an extraordinary statement given the scale of capacity investment already underway.More importantly, management said demand has increased since the last earnings report and that supply will be tighter in 2027 than in 2026. That completely undermines the conventional argument that additional industry capacity will soon normalise the market.
Customers are also demonstrating how seriously they view the shortage. Some are signing supply commitments extending all the way through 2030, while management says customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing. That combination is hugely significant: customers are effectively prioritising guaranteed supply over price.
And this is already translating into extraordinary economics. Micron achieved an 86% gross margin last quarter, with management describing financial performance as being at “extraordinary levels” and robust (meaning they are probably rising further).This is no longer simply a cyclical memory recovery story. It increasingly looks like a structurally constrained market in which AI demand is overwhelming available supply, customers are locking up capacity years ahead, and Micron has substantial pricing power.
At these levels, the market is still valuing Micron too much like a traditional cyclical memory company.
If these trends persist, MU needs to rerate to reflect structurally higher earnings, margins and visibility. -
you can't see what you don't want to see
Shipping 'now'
The guide was $50B revenue this quarter. I think their gross margin will be $50B
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The US government has urged Apple to refrain from purchasing memory chips from Chinese suppliers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the Trump administration is not in favour of American companies using Chinese memory, particularly from firms such as CXMT and YMTC, which appear on the Pentagon’s blacklist over alleged military links.
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That’s good news..
Trump love him or hate puts his country first …
I don’t think our shower of shi.. would do the same -
I think it's somewhat moot what is decided at the Govt level as the Chinese vendors don't have any product to sell, and based on the evidence are asking a premium. Plus, the over supply argument has been put to bed, regardless of what certain vested interest will continue to promote.
We will have severe shortages for at least 5 years and possibly much more. A very very long time in this game-trying to predict markets in 5 years is pointless so ignore that too.
If anything the infection of physical AI is a matter of when not if. Cars will get to level 4 soon, robots will proliferate. Both will need material memory to allow real time (zero shot) inference. It's obvious, well at least to some.
We will discuss this in due course but the next phase in the memory road map is custom silicon where companies like SK/Micron are working with customers to produce bespoke silicon. We know they are working with Anthropic and Nvidia. Why it's a big deal. It makes their products not just commoditised, it means these co-designs are deeply embedded in their AI architecture which effectively locks out competitors.
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Jensen Huang (NVIDIA founder and CEO) and Tim Cook (Apple CEO) both provided supportive statements in Micron’s August 20, 2026 announcement of Micron Research Labs (a U.S.-based long-horizon research institution headquartered in Boise, Idaho, backed by a planned $10 billion investment
Jensen Huang:
“Micron is taking on one of the great challenges of the AI era — reinventing memory technologies and architectures to fuel the next generation of increasingly powerful AI systems. By bringing together advanced manufacturing and the broader technology ecosystem, Micron is helping drive the breakthroughs that will define the next era of AI and computing.”and surprising, given the rift (restoring relations?)
Tim Cook:
"For more than two decades, Micron has been an important partner, providing memory technologies for Apple’s groundbreaking products that people love and use every day around the world. With the launch of Micron Research Labs, they are building on a legacy of leadership in semiconductor research to drive breakthroughs in memory and computing for decades to come. Apple believes deeply in American innovation, and we’re proud to support Micron as it expands leading-edge manufacturing and R&D in the United States.” -
Yesterday Aug 20),Micron Technology (MU) CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said AI has fundamentally changed the memory business, creating a more durable source of demand for an industry historically prone to boom-and-bust cycles.
“Today there is no AI without memory. AI systems need more memory. They need higher performance memory. They need lower power memory,” Mehrotra told Jim Cramer on “Mad Money.” “So, the value of memory, that equation has totally changed.”He added that data-centre customers currently want roughly 50% more supply than Micron can commit, underscoring the tightness in the memory market.Mehrotra also called memory “the strategic infrastructure of the AI era,” pointing to growing demand beyond data centres from autonomous vehicles, robots, and AI-enabled consumer devices.
“Without memory, you cannot make AI smarter or faster, without memory you can’t scale up AI. AI is advancing and a lot of content is getting generated. All of that content has to be stored, has to be processed through memory,” he added.How bullish this is / re-rating the company.
This is strongly bullish and supports a meaningful re-rating of Micron. Historically, memory (DRAM/NAND) has been a classic cyclical industry: sharp price collapses when supply outstrips demand, followed by recoveries. Investors therefore applied low valuation multiples reflecting that volatility and limited visibility. Mehrotra’s comments mark a clear structural shift. He frames AI as creating durable, multi-year demand that is no longer purely cyclical: AI systems require more, higher-performance and lower-power memory; data-centre customers already want ~50% more supply than Micron can currently commit (tight market conditions); and memory is positioned as “the strategic infrastructure of the AI era,” with demand also expanding into autonomous vehicles, robots and AI-enabled devices. In valuation terms this implies: Higher and more sustainable utilisation/pricing power.
Better earnings visibility and potentially elevated through-cycle margins.
A transition from “cyclical commodity” to “structural AI enabler.”Markets typically reward that shift with higher multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, etc.). If investors accept the durability thesis, Micron can re-rate from a traditional memory multiple toward something closer to other AI infrastructure names, supporting a higher share price even before further earnings upgrades.
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Nvidia is shifting its primary HBM4 configuration from 12-high to 8-high stacks for the second half of the year, driven by thermal-management needs and supply-chain resilience.
Samsung and SK Hynix, previously focused on denser 12-high products for the Vera Rubin platform, are now increasing their 8-high share to meet Nvidia’s request.
Micron has been the only major supplier committed to 8-high HBM4 from the start.
This change validates Micron’s strategy, eliminates a potential competitive disadvantage, and positions it for stronger volume and share as Nvidia seeks a broader, more balanced mix of 8-high product across all three suppliers. The same preference is also emerging for next-gen HBM4E. In short, Nvidia just endorsed the path Micron was already on — clear product validation and a meaningful win for MU.
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from nvidia earnings prepared notes-wow
rerating?
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Micron share price is like a day trading one at the moment …
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Micron share price is like a day trading one at the moment …
@Ducati996R said in Micron Technology:
Micron share price is like a day trading one at the moment …
Indeed - it's all over the place. I await some nice steady growth in the coming months but do wish it would get on with it ......
