Micron Technology
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Counterpoint Research’s Q2 2026 DRAM figures mark a net big win for Micron.Samsung led with 39% revenue share, while SK Hynix fell to 26% — just one percentage point ahead of Micron at 25%.
This closes a previously wide gap; SK Hynix has lost share for four straight quarters after peaking at 39% a year earlier.Micron’s DRAM revenue surged roughly fivefold since Q2 2025, far outpacing relative share trends. SK Hynix still grew revenue a robust 214% year-on-year, yet underperformed on market share.
The shift stems from HBM3E prices falling through renegotiations rather than rising, plus HBM4 launch delays. SK Hynix, the heaviest HBM player, signed long-term agreements earliest and thus locked in lower fixed prices before conventional DRAM prices climbed sharply.
Those higher conventional prices favoured Samsung and supported Micron’s gains.
Separately, Micron is executing strongly on HBM4 itself, with volume shipments already under way, the ramp progressing roughly twice as fast as its HBM3E transition, improving yields, and full 2026 HBM capacity sold out under long-term contracts. No material issues have been reported.
For Micron this combination is clearly a stronger profit driver than for SK Hynix. The American firm is now positioned to challenge or overtake second place, depending on capacity and future contract pricing.
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I should also reiterate ALL HBM is as of todays news, SOLD OUT through 2027 also.
TrendForce: DRAM Supply Shortage to Persist Through 2027… NVIDIA Considering Downgrading Rubin Ultra's HBM Configuration
- According to TrendForce's latest memory industry research, the DRAM supply shortage is expected to continue through 2027.
Note-Nvidia decision to use less HBM is not a negative, although short sellers will try and spin it as such. Nvidia has prioritised increased GPU sales-more racks and there is simply not enough HBM available.
This remains positive for Micron.
The TrendForce view confirms a structural DRAM/HBM shortage lasting through 2027. Even with NVIDIA reviewing lower-stack options (HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi or 8hi) for Rubin Ultra instead of the original 12hi HBM4e baseline, the core constraint is unchanged: wafer allocation limits and demand still outstripping supply.
HBM bit shipments are projected to rise 50–60% year-on-year in 2027, yet this will not match demand growth. Suppliers therefore retain strong pricing power, with substantial HBM price increases widely expected. Lower stack heights may allow more GPUs to ship, but each GPU still requires scarce HBM. Micron, as a major HBM producer, benefits from sustained high average selling prices and elevated margins rather than volume dilution from oversupply. AI chipmakers face both limited availability and rising costs, reinforcing the suppliers’ leverage.
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Turns out China’s CXMT playing hardball on DRAM prices is actually good news for Samsung, SK Hynix (and by extension Micron) – not the threat people expected.Apple was eyeing CXMT as a cheap alternative source for mobile DRAM like LPDDR5X to cut costs on the next iPhones and gadgets.
But CXMT flat-out refused further discounts and is sticking to prices the same as or higher than Samsung and SK. Apple, usually the big buyer that can force prices down, just got stonewalled.Why? Chinese giants like Huawei and Xiaomi have already snapped up most of CXMT’s output with expensive long-term deals.
They’re pushing hard for domestic supply because of the ongoing US sanctions, so CXMT doesn’t need Apple’s business at a cut-price rate.That old Apple trick of dangling cheap Chinese parts to squeeze better deals out of the big suppliers has stopped working.
At the same time the major memory makers have shifted loads of capacity over to high-value AI stuff like HBM. Commodity DRAM (DDR5, LPDDR5X) is tighter, prices are climbing, and the usual cheap workaround has vanished.CXMT soaking up the China-side commodity demand means Samsung and SK are off the hook for flooding the market with low-margin chips. They’re free to pour everything into premium AI memory – HBM4, LPCAMM2, enterprise SSDs and the rest.
With commodity prices held up by CXMT and the Big Three owning the high-end, their pricing power and margins look set to get even stronger in the second half.
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I don't see Apple sacrificing much-more likely the consumer takes the brunt if they want the new model, maybe even the old model.
See below. Think about that. 34% of the flagship iPhone cost is 'memory' and expected to be 42% next year. Crazy.
What is happening is Wafers are being allocated to HBM and DC memory types leaving commodity DRAM scarce also.
Musk said over the weekend that supply of memory will increase 20-30% in 2027 but demand will increase 200%. It doesn't matter if that is a gross exaggeration. Demand outstripping supply = prices stay up.
In other news CXMT turned out to be the Emperors new clothes. After hanging an 'open for business' sign out front it turns out the shop is empty. They have no memory to sell to the West, not that any sales would have been approved. But it bolstered their stock price. They are now telling the market they'll build more fabs. Nice story, we will see what they achieve in about 4 years-that is how long it takes. And given they are currently on the 1Z node (a dinosaur), I think this 'threat' has been put to bed-
showKeybanc fireside chat with Micron today. I''ll be ears
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I think the sector will remain volatile and range bound until we get some concrete info from senior management. The bears won't capitulate without a fight-no doubts, why, because many are paid to generate FUD. As we have said before, the thesis is not based on ever increasing price rises. 25% bit growth is a given and that'll do imo. I don't see prices dropping-basic economic theory says so.
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Micron gave a fireside chat today at Keybancs Tech conference, where senior executives spoke about what is happening. Brilliant commentary.
This is far more bullish than the market appears to appreciate.
The latest management comments from Micron are, in my view, exceptionally bullish and point to a significant rerating of the shares.
The key message is that demand is not merely strong — it is running substantially ahead of supply, and the imbalance is getting worse. Management indicated that Micron cannot currently meet even half of customer requirements, versus the previously stated 50–67%. That is an extraordinary statement given the scale of capacity investment already underway.More importantly, management said demand has increased since the last earnings report and that supply will be tighter in 2027 than in 2026. That completely undermines the conventional argument that additional industry capacity will soon normalise the market.
Customers are also demonstrating how seriously they view the shortage. Some are signing supply commitments extending all the way through 2030, while management says customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing. That combination is hugely significant: customers are effectively prioritising guaranteed supply over price.
And this is already translating into extraordinary economics. Micron achieved an 86% gross margin last quarter, with management describing financial performance as being at “extraordinary levels” and robust (meaning they are probably rising further).This is no longer simply a cyclical memory recovery story. It increasingly looks like a structurally constrained market in which AI demand is overwhelming available supply, customers are locking up capacity years ahead, and Micron has substantial pricing power.
At these levels, the market is still valuing Micron too much like a traditional cyclical memory company.
If these trends persist, MU needs to rerate to reflect structurally higher earnings, margins and visibility. -
you can't see what you don't want to see
Shipping 'now'
The guide was $50B revenue this quarter. I think their gross margin will be $50B
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The US government has urged Apple to refrain from purchasing memory chips from Chinese suppliers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the Trump administration is not in favour of American companies using Chinese memory, particularly from firms such as CXMT and YMTC, which appear on the Pentagon’s blacklist over alleged military links.
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That’s good news..
Trump love him or hate puts his country first …
I don’t think our shower of shi.. would do the same -
I think it's somewhat moot what is decided at the Govt level as the Chinese vendors don't have any product to sell, and based on the evidence are asking a premium. Plus, the over supply argument has been put to bed, regardless of what certain vested interest will continue to promote.
We will have severe shortages for at least 5 years and possibly much more. A very very long time in this game-trying to predict markets in 5 years is pointless so ignore that too.
If anything the infection of physical AI is a matter of when not if. Cars will get to level 4 soon, robots will proliferate. Both will need material memory to allow real time (zero shot) inference. It's obvious, well at least to some.
We will discuss this in due course but the next phase in the memory road map is custom silicon where companies like SK/Micron are working with customers to produce bespoke silicon. We know they are working with Anthropic and Nvidia. Why it's a big deal. It makes their products not just commoditised, it means these co-designs are deeply embedded in their AI architecture which effectively locks out competitors.
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Jensen Huang (NVIDIA founder and CEO) and Tim Cook (Apple CEO) both provided supportive statements in Micron’s August 20, 2026 announcement of Micron Research Labs (a U.S.-based long-horizon research institution headquartered in Boise, Idaho, backed by a planned $10 billion investment
Jensen Huang:
“Micron is taking on one of the great challenges of the AI era — reinventing memory technologies and architectures to fuel the next generation of increasingly powerful AI systems. By bringing together advanced manufacturing and the broader technology ecosystem, Micron is helping drive the breakthroughs that will define the next era of AI and computing.”and surprising, given the rift (restoring relations?)
Tim Cook:
"For more than two decades, Micron has been an important partner, providing memory technologies for Apple’s groundbreaking products that people love and use every day around the world. With the launch of Micron Research Labs, they are building on a legacy of leadership in semiconductor research to drive breakthroughs in memory and computing for decades to come. Apple believes deeply in American innovation, and we’re proud to support Micron as it expands leading-edge manufacturing and R&D in the United States.” -
Yesterday Aug 20),Micron Technology (MU) CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said AI has fundamentally changed the memory business, creating a more durable source of demand for an industry historically prone to boom-and-bust cycles.
“Today there is no AI without memory. AI systems need more memory. They need higher performance memory. They need lower power memory,” Mehrotra told Jim Cramer on “Mad Money.” “So, the value of memory, that equation has totally changed.”He added that data-centre customers currently want roughly 50% more supply than Micron can commit, underscoring the tightness in the memory market.Mehrotra also called memory “the strategic infrastructure of the AI era,” pointing to growing demand beyond data centres from autonomous vehicles, robots, and AI-enabled consumer devices.
“Without memory, you cannot make AI smarter or faster, without memory you can’t scale up AI. AI is advancing and a lot of content is getting generated. All of that content has to be stored, has to be processed through memory,” he added.How bullish this is / re-rating the company.
This is strongly bullish and supports a meaningful re-rating of Micron. Historically, memory (DRAM/NAND) has been a classic cyclical industry: sharp price collapses when supply outstrips demand, followed by recoveries. Investors therefore applied low valuation multiples reflecting that volatility and limited visibility. Mehrotra’s comments mark a clear structural shift. He frames AI as creating durable, multi-year demand that is no longer purely cyclical: AI systems require more, higher-performance and lower-power memory; data-centre customers already want ~50% more supply than Micron can currently commit (tight market conditions); and memory is positioned as “the strategic infrastructure of the AI era,” with demand also expanding into autonomous vehicles, robots and AI-enabled devices. In valuation terms this implies: Higher and more sustainable utilisation/pricing power.
Better earnings visibility and potentially elevated through-cycle margins.
A transition from “cyclical commodity” to “structural AI enabler.”Markets typically reward that shift with higher multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, etc.). If investors accept the durability thesis, Micron can re-rate from a traditional memory multiple toward something closer to other AI infrastructure names, supporting a higher share price even before further earnings upgrades.
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Nvidia is shifting its primary HBM4 configuration from 12-high to 8-high stacks for the second half of the year, driven by thermal-management needs and supply-chain resilience.
Samsung and SK Hynix, previously focused on denser 12-high products for the Vera Rubin platform, are now increasing their 8-high share to meet Nvidia’s request.
Micron has been the only major supplier committed to 8-high HBM4 from the start.
This change validates Micron’s strategy, eliminates a potential competitive disadvantage, and positions it for stronger volume and share as Nvidia seeks a broader, more balanced mix of 8-high product across all three suppliers. The same preference is also emerging for next-gen HBM4E. In short, Nvidia just endorsed the path Micron was already on — clear product validation and a meaningful win for MU.
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from nvidia earnings prepared notes-wow
rerating?
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Micron share price is like a day trading one at the moment …
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Micron share price is like a day trading one at the moment …
@Ducati996R said in Micron Technology:
Micron share price is like a day trading one at the moment …
Indeed - it's all over the place. I await some nice steady growth in the coming months but do wish it would get on with it ......
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Micron 512GB DDR5 RDIMM
Micron has just demonstrated the world’s first 512GB DDR5 RDIMM, aimed squarely at next-generation AI/data-centre servers. It is a significant step up in memory density: one module holds 512GB, with speeds of up to 9,200 MT/s. Micron expects volume production in H2 2027. AMD and Intel are already validating it on future server platforms.The power saving is particularly striking. One 512GB module consumes approximately 16W, versus 44.2W for four 128GB modules providing the same capacity — a reduction of more than 60%.
The key fact to add is that Micron's memory opportunity isn't solely an AI/HBM story. The new 512GB DDR5 module targets the much broader non-AI data-centre/server market, while HBM4/HBM4E captures the AI accelerator market.
That gives MU two separate demand drivers. Even at $15k per module, you're looking at $360k of DRAM per server.
Validation of durability!
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Whats your thoughts on the upcoming MU earnings @Adam-Kay ? MU is flying at the moment.
