Busy couple of weeks on results front
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U.S. Labor Market Resilience Shines in May 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls
The U.S. labour market continues to display remarkable resilience, as evidenced by the May 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report released today. Employers added 139,000 jobs, surpassing the consensus forecast of 130,000 and signaling steady growth despite global economic uncertainties and tariff concerns. While slightly below April’s robust 177,000, the figure underscores a labour market that remains a pillar of strength for the U.S. economy.
The unemployment rate held firm at 4.2%, aligning with expectations and reflecting stability. Average hourly earnings rose by a modest 0.3%, consistent with forecasts, indicating controlled inflationary pressures. The average workweek stayed at 34.3 hours, suggesting businesses are maintaining steady operations without overextending.
This balanced report highlights the labour market’s ability to absorb shocks, from geopolitical tensions to monetary policy shifts. Investors may view this as a "Goldilocks" outcome—growth that’s neither too hot to spur aggressive Federal Reserve tightening nor too cold to signal recession. -
Morgan Stanley admitting they got it wrong in 2024
What they are saying is they think stock prices in the sector will go higher, not that they have a very good track record
'we got it wrong but now we are right' -
OpenAI have released figures showing the cost/revenue relationship for 'intelligence'
And OpenAI researcher Noam Brown says "intelligence curve will continue to improve rapidly."
This is the real revolution we are heading for. Intelligence too cheap to meter.
QuoteInput is now $2 per 1M(tokens) and Output is now $8 per 1M. The cost vs intelligence curve will continue to improve rapidly.
What this shows is $4 of revenue is created from $1 in cost. Proof AI is being monetised!
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Just in. Futures turn 3 digits positive from negative.
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US Inflation Cools in May, Strengthening Case for Rate Cuts
US CPI inflation for May rose 0.1% month-over-month, yielding a 2.4% annual rate, below the expected 0.2% monthly and 2.4% yearly forecasts. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly, steady at 2.8% annually. A 1.0% drop in energy prices, led by gasoline, offset a 0.3% rise in shelter costs(rents).
With inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% target, markets see a stronger case for rate cuts, possibly starting September 2025, with a 25–50 basis point reduction by year-end. Despite tariff concerns, this data supports easing monetary policy to bolster growth.
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Last night Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, its military and scientist personnel . Futures are down a lot and oil is up. Given the nuclear watchdogs scathing report on Iran being close to having weapons grade uranium and the breaches of their agreement, it is not surprising. As in the past, don't worry too much about it and it should all calm down pretty quickly
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Adobe reported earnings last week. They beat. I didn't say anything about it because our position is now immaterial. The IC took the decision in February to take most of the weight out of our Adobe holdings, simply because their valuation vs their growth was getting stretched-growth is low and we saw better opportunities elsewhere. The last big sale was at $453 and that proved to be the correct decision as the stock is now $390. Not only that but we used the proceeds to buy new positions in ORCL amongst others(AVGO/MU), which are all up substantially.
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This metric is captured monthly and is on a YoY basis. One would think this business, being mature, would flatten out-but no.
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Some stability for now!
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GBP/USD-USD strengthens 75 bps today as Trump weighs joining Israel in escalation. Why. The USD is a safe haven.
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Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire. Futures +380
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Some June 'month' performance figures. All net of fees
Tech +11.4%
Lifestyle +6.45%
100 index. +2.89%
Optimum GG & I +1.86%
Equity +1.65%Comps:
Nest Sharia +1.79%
Fundsmith +0.57% -
Proof the US economy is doing well!
June nonfarm payrolls: +147K vs. +110K consensus and +144K in May (revised from +139K), according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics on Thursday.
The unemployment rate moved down, below consensus. -
Markets closed early today for the 4th of July weekend.
Cobens Technology at an all time high. Regained its Feb 2025 high and we've battled an 8.6% fx headwind. Very happy where we are.
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That’s great news….can you just sort out the dollar / pound exchange rates please ….
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It's def a team effort and thank you all for your kind words
