Nvidia News
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Fingers crossed it’s a good one
Did see Motley Fool doing an article basically saying it’s all downhill from here for Nvidia… -
I think that Motley Fool is a prime example of the 'print whatever will attract attention' approach to journalism. They've been alternately predicting the demise and worldwide dominance of Nvidia.
Always entertaining to read but I'm never persuaded to change investment course based on what they say.
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Motley fool
Can anyone find a company, growing faster? In dollars. And it’s cheaper than CL/KO
The fact is, their quarterly report is only going to confirm one thing. More growth as far as their eyes can see. I’m sure the usual trolls will point out revenue growth rate slowing, an obvious fact when your baseline is 200% (it can’t keep growing at the same rate can it-simple maths), or margin fell. Yes you get that when you reserve 5.5b. It’s a one-off and H20/China related.
Expectation is for 42-43b. They could report anywhere from 43-50b. They are constrained. Blackwell is now in full swing with added unexpected Hopper demand too. Backlog of around 10GW today and growing. That’s 400-500b. Expect a guide of Q1 actual +4b imo (conservative). I expect production to be sold out now through all of next year.
Expect Kress/Huang to reiterate the companies strong progress and use superlatives like ‘insane and ridiculous’ a lot.
Dell report tomorrow. I expect growth but poor margins. When you don’t make your own hardware in this segment it brutal on the bottom line.
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The fool did emphasise the reduction in gross margin as a red flag …bless them
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Margins are guided back to 72. The guide is 45b but noted would have been 53b(wow) if h20 hadn’t been banned. Just crazy. The best company on the planet. It’s circa 140 ah. Cheap imo
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If h20 had not been banned on April 9 they said their numbers would have been q1 guide 42, actual 46.5, q2 guide 53b. Just ridiculous. It’s not slowing down. They think the China market will be worth 50b in a year or so-mostly handed to Huawei unless trump rethinks.
Shipping 72,000 Blackwell per week and increasing. See previous chart above. Close to 1m chips this quarter. The figures in the chart I put together a month or so ago look accurate
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946k chips in the table. 72x13 =936k!
Huang said they will keep their supply chain very busy for ‘many years’ remember, this is a cowos capacity constraint. Scheduled to double this year and next. -
Blackwell racks are now bug free and yield has improved. Huang said the move to b300/ultra will be seamless and as it utilises the same architecture as b200 odm’s(Smci) will have a much easier process ‘plug/play’, which bodes well fir their margin!. Ultra will ship this quarter-this is 6 months ahead! Nice. The September Smci quarter looks to be a monster
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‘We have line of sight for as yet unannounced AI factories in the 10s of GW’. 1 GW is 40-50b. Safe to say they have 1 trillion of backlog!
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The era of robotics is here, billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles and hundreds of thousands of robotic factories and warehouses will be developed.
I’m on an iPad -on holiday so excuse the short blurbs -
And with respect to further announcements, I'm going to be on the road next week through Europe. And it's -- just about every country needs to build out AI infrastructure and their umpteenth AI factories being planned. I think in the remarks, Colette mentioned there's some 100 AI factories being built. There's a whole bunch that haven't been announced.
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The era of robotics is here, billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles and hundreds of thousands of robotic factories and warehouses will be developed.
I’m on an iPad -on holiday so excuse the short blurbsLike what exIM said - happy hols Adam. I hope they are going well. Don't work too hard - the clue is in the name ("holiday")!
@Adam-Kay said in Nvidia News:
The era of robotics is here, billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles and hundreds of thousands of robotic factories and warehouses will be developed.
Am I the only one who can hear this being said in a Trump voice and finding it quite amusing ... ?
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Fantastic news…..
A few people eating humble pie
Have a great break Adam and really appreciate all your insights etc -
They have pretty much modelled their go fwd revenue by quarter at +8b qoq. 47/55/63/81/90. With Rubin dropping in dec/jan we will see another increase due to higher ASP. Remember `Rubin is packaged in the same lines as Blackwell so we won’t see the fade/ramp during the switch.
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Enjoy your holibobs!
We’re in Pamplona, having driven down the west coast of France visiting places for a couple of days along the way: the weather has been fabulous (although it did hit 35° yesterday, which is too hot for me 🥵).
Should cool a little from Sunday around here, which is good, as I am walking 80 miles of the Camino Norte with a pal & his son
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It’s netting a bit over 4%. It’s as safe as any bank deposit-if diversify = safer then more so. Comparing like for like I doubt the 4.26% you quote is ‘on-call’. I would guess that’s a locked in rate. Our MM is a daily rate.
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I've just bought a 5080 GPU, doing my part to bump up the share price...