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Well done!
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The company has received a Nasdaq extension, as expected. Happy days.
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Hi Ron,
Nice to see you back
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It's not unexpected given the typical euphoria and likely short covering driving the price much higher in a very short period of time. It is worth noting that JPM, yesterday who have access to senior management across industries, issued a note to say that customers are SMCI are sticking with the company and any rumours that they are losing business is false. We have discussed this too. The company holds some very unique and patented products which are best of breed and as an example. Xai colossus expansion ($6B) being rumoured to have gone solely to Dell just didn't add up. And it too was false. A lot of negative news is coming out of Taiwan and being promulgated by 'rags'. Why? To give Taiwan facilities a boost (Quanta, Foxconn, Will Jaya).
This coupled with the fact that the company can not publish actual financial results until the 10-k/Q filings in February (25th?) next year so what you have is an information vacuum which vested interest will use to their advantage. Our opinion is at these levels the business is still not trading on fundamentals and we are very happy to be holding a modest position in our portfolios. There are of course issues to overcome, namely capital and Blackwell supply delays have probably helped them as they can get their house in order whilst they await large supply in Feb/March.
It is worth noting that Nvidia too have been flat over the past few weeks. However we are bullish on its prospects and the stock trading behaviour is nothing new.
Have a good evening all!
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Quite a rollercoaster at the moment!
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Oh yes.
(And for anyone who is following my travails with moving money to Schwab, they have cocked-up repeatedly and hence I've not been able to buy any more SMCI. So perhaps I should be grateful!)
If I were you, which I'm not thank goodness, I would be using an EU or GB based supplier.
But I would also suggest that you sit on your hands for a bit longer, SMCI may drop back to $18 or lower, yet!
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If I were you, which I'm not thank goodness, I would be using an EU or GB based supplier.
But I would also suggest that you sit on your hands for a bit longer, SMCI may drop back to $18 or lower, yet!
If I were you, which I'm not thank goodness, I would be using an EU or GB based supplier.
But I would also suggest that you sit on your hands for a bit longer, SMCI may drop back to $18 or lower, yet!
Cheeky! I'm pretty happy being me!
Thanks for the advice though. Do you have a EU/GB supplier who would give me access to the NASDAQ without charging silly fees at every turn?
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An example of ‘fake news’
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SMCI built Colossus-1, a 100k H200 DLC super cluster. Circa 1,500 racks. These were mainly 64 chip racks. When short sellers report dropped the rumour mill started swirling that they lost Colossus-2, a 200k GPU addition (B200). perhaps 3,000 expected by April. Dell may be doing some of it but SMCI are 100% doing the DLC. You don't fly private unless the deal is in the bag :). This right here is why we stuck with Super micro-they are the best globally at delivering custom accelerators, and fast.
Thanks Mark for the tweet pic
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February is the month where we will be presented with a lot of SMCI news. The filing deadline is the 25th.
Just a reminder of time lines. Cooley LLP and Secretariat Advisors conducted the internal review, initiated by concerns raised by former auditors EY. The review(9,000 hours billed) concluded with no evidence of misconduct nor will they require any accounting restatements. Cooley LLP is a top tier global firm (actually Nvidia's external lawyers) specialising is regulatory matters in the tech industry. Secretariat and forensic accountants specialising in complex financial investigations. If they've confirmed 'nothing to see' it's credible. Meanwhile, Hindenburg has closed its business completely and is now under investigation by the Canadian regulator for potential securities fraud. To date the investigation has confirmed 'connections with Anson Funds, suggesting collaboration in preparing targeted reports and coordinated short selling attacks. This would be illegal. Secondly, regulators in India have filed various notices with Hindenburg, accusing the firm of insider dealing and intentionally misleading the public, causing panic. Hindenburg had been hacked and the above 'reports' gleamed from documents obtained.
If we are to weigh the evidence and make judgement it certainly looks like SMCI did nothing wrong and Hindeburg are miscreant fraudsters. The CEO didn't help matters with mixed communications and clearly the company supply chain is a long list of connected parties. This is not illegal and the company has shown that there has not been any favourable terms of trade afforded to these related parties. In fact it is all disclosed in their filings.
Now to the pressing issue, will they file the 10-k by 25 February. BDO was appointed 18 November. And prior to this, BDO would have carried out a thorough risk assessment and discussed everything with EY-legally BDO would not have been able to accept the engagement if it couldn't discharge all of its obligations. This includes completing their audit ON_TIME. Since the assignment has been accepted, BDO must be confident it can meet all filing deadlines without compromise.
We believe SMCI will file their 10-k on time, later this month. At the same time or soon thereafter they will file their 10-Q for Q1 and 2.
Operationally, the company will need additional capital. Probably a combination of debt +equity. This has nothing to do with the filing issues, rather their growth requires it. We think some dilution is a positive as it will confirm growth-if the above images are not evidence enough that new data centre installations are being secured.
We want to remind everyone that there is only so much rack scale capacity available, globally, and SMCI control a very large share of it. The market is pretty much 'big iron' goes to Foxconn, this is reference design generic AI servers you find in cloud DC's such as Azure/AWS and custom/bespoke servers which are built for specific tasks. This is SM's area of expertise. It will be interesting to see how Foxconn manoeuvre around tariffs(coming on Monday apparently) as they ship out of a huge factory in Mexico.
It is very easy to quote rumours and speculate-throw shade on those taking a contrarian view and point to a stock price as evidence that they are right. The stock price proves nothing. If the rumours are untrue, that stock price is clearly very low and does not reflect the company's prospects. The stock price has been driven down hard due to significant and persistent short selling. In our opinion these short sales will need to be closed when and if things turn positive.
Our decisions are based on data, facts and a well-reasoned investment thesis. It's too easy to criticise based on headlines than take the time to dig deeper and try and understand the full context-you just copy and paste old news. Critics who have no understanding of the industry at all-and worse, no experience in stock selection and related research. It's nothing more than lazy and requires no effort at all just to parrot someone else's opinion.
My point is, we may be wrong but they will never be right because there is no original thought, effort or basis for their opinions. It is exactly the same with Nvidia, pointing out its retracement as evidence it's broken (I told you so). We are sure it's not broken but a share price move in isolation is meaningless. There is of course the small matter of buying at $25 and the current price of $120! Hindsight investing and worse suggesting what you would do when you don't have any money invested(and after the fact) should be ridiculed for the vacuous unoriginal opinions they are.
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SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), a Total IT Solution Provider for AI, Cloud, Storage, and 5G/Edge, today announced that it will provide a second quarter fiscal 2025 business update on Tuesday, February 11, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. PT.
The stock is up 10% AH on the news.
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More news coming in on SMCI.
Supermicro Ramps Full Production of NVIDIA Blackwell Rack-Scale Solutions with NVIDIA HGX B200
The company has allocated a portion of its total rack production in San Jose to the HGX B200-whatever that capacity is, they are now in full production and utilising all of it.
The stock is up about 10% on the news. We expect plenty of SM news over the next 3 weeks.
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More information in coming out on SM's new DC system. Offering multiple vendor CPU and unique configurations which the company developed with Nvidia. Offered in Air Cooled, Liquid-to-Liquid(L2L) and Liquid-to-air (L2A).
Clearly SM is still very close with Nvidia which is a significant positive. Big day next tuesday with the Business Update-hoping to receive some positive news on the audit/filing and of course a guide for Q3
