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SMCI

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote on last edited by
    #121

    It's a lot of work, auditing an annual report plus two quarters in 99 days. It would have been nice to see a pre 25th filing. We will see. The facts are there will be no delisting any time soon, regardless. The volatility is driven purely by gamblers (derivatives). The time to file is work load based not 'books and records' issues.

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      Adam Kay
      Global Moderator
      wrote on last edited by
      #122

      And looking at company records, Vanguard own 12% of the entire company(today) so we are in good company with SM.

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        Adam Kay
        Global Moderator
        wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
        #123

        Almost better late than never. SM file their 10-k. The stock is up 15% after hours. I gave it a quick flick-it’s 208 pages-it’s been one of those days. The after hours lunatics seem to like it.

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          Adam Kay
          Global Moderator
          wrote on last edited by
          #124

          The after hours is now 55. Quite clearly they’ve redeemed themselves and ruled out any question of malfeasance. The future looks very bright for the business.

          I want to say- they say asset managers don’t have an edge. I agree. The same information is out there for all to see. We worked very hard on this company. Because it is a great business and our 2 years of research told us the naysayers were wrong. I congratulate all the stock holders. And to the contrarians 🙂

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            Ducati996R
            wrote on last edited by
            #125

            That’s great news …..😀
            I’m sure I speak for quite a few of us ….really appreciate the updates etc
            Hope your getting the overtime slip authorised 😉

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              Adam Kay
              Global Moderator
              wrote on last edited by
              #126

              Hi C, honestly, seeing this result is reward enough. As you can imagine the market can be very cruel at times. It makes the often heavy burden worth it.

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                Adam Kay
                Global Moderator
                wrote on last edited by
                #127

                From the ceo…… The Company is now current with its SEC financial reporting obligations. There were no restatements of previously filed financial statements. The Company has received correspondence from the Nasdaq staff that the Company has regained compliance with the filing requirements, and the matter is now closed.

                “Today’s filings represent an important milestone,” said Charles Liang, Founder, President, and CEO. “With our financial reporting now current, we can now fully focus on executing our proven winning growth strategy through technology, product and solution innovations, time-to-market advantage, global footprint, and green computing. We are investing extensively in people and processes across our engineering, sales, finance, accounting, compliance, and operations to achieve our great mission in DLC, Data Center Building Block Solution (Supermicro 4.0) as well as our revenue target. Supermicro is accelerating at the forefront of the AI revolution, helping our customers, partners and driving strong returns for investors.”

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                  Adam Kay
                  Global Moderator
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #128

                  SM announce a major expansion to their San Jose headquarters. Campus 3 will start construction in 2025 and once complete (multiple years) it will add 3M square feet. San Jose Mayor, Matt Mahan is quoted as saying ' We are proud to be the home of SM, the fastest growing and innovative San Jose business, this defines what 'Made in America' looks like. Charles Liang said the new facility is required to fuel the need for DLC.

                  PG&G, the utilities infrastructure giant is providing the massive power needs. You may read about server rack factories running out of power or hotting the max. This is in relation to testing. SM have a unique testing system where the entire cluster is plugged in and optimised before shipping-it's deployed ready to run and obviously large systems of 100s of racks draw a lot of power. At the Burn-In testing phase the full stack is run hard to ensure it is operating as intended.

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                    mikeiow
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #129

                    PG&G?
                    Did you mean PG&E - Pacific Gas & Energy?
                    I recall our place being a case study for them with our ‘hot aisle/cold aisle’ cooling config, probably about 10 years ago.
                    Oooh, the excitement I used to have, roaming around our datacenters and pretending to be all technical! Good times.
                    Here, some clips from our RTP (North Carolina) state of the art Datacenter from about 8 years ago, surrounded by primeval swamps 🤣

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                      Adam Kay
                      Global Moderator
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #130

                      E yes. Carolina, Louisiana are still hot spots for big DC. It's all to do with access to plenty of water, cheap land and big power.

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                        mikeiow
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #131

                        Indeed.
                        Then we bought an Icelandic tech company…some very smart guys there, & their DC costs are crazy low - free heating and cooling for the most part!

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                          Adam Kay
                          Global Moderator
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #132

                          Screen Shot 2025-03-04 at 07.30.30.png

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                            Adam Kay
                            Global Moderator
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #133

                            Iceland is amongst the cheapest places to run DCs. It's naturally cold and they generate an abundance of renewable energy from hydro and geothermal. The thing is DLC is even cheaper and that is why we are invested in the space.

                            From the above table. Last quarter there was a mere 230k Blackwell chips in circulation. We know Msft/Goog/AWS received the first ones for their 'Big Iron' (Foxconn ref design). It's just a matter of 1 or 2 quarters until supply is much bigger. SMCI has stated many times that they expect to consume 100k blackwell/month on average through 2025. Obviously that will be skewed to the H2 period. This is a supply issue not a demand issue.

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                              Adam Kay
                              Global Moderator
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #134

                              Mike, re your question.

                              Senior management receive compensation via stock awards. It's part of their employment contract. They know when these shares will vest and invariably they are sold the day they vest because as said, it's their salary and they are taxed heavily on them on vesting not sale. It makes perfect sense to sell them, otherwise you pay the tax out of your own pocket.

                              The Liangs hold around 150 million shares and have not sold any shares (these sales are compensation awards), not even when the stock flew to $120. So if he was going to cash-in don't you think he would have back then. it's just dog whistle nonsense repeated by idiots. We will see who is right in the second half of this year

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                                Adam Kay
                                Global Moderator
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #135

                                Mike,

                                The Liangs sold their stock via a 10b5-1 plan agreed January 2024 which stipulated a schedule of shares and sale dates. The delayed filings prevented these planned sales.

                                A- One can not modify any 105b-1 if any sales under said plan have been actioned(they had, October 24).
                                B-If a sale is not able to be actioned on a prescribed date (the case due to the delayed 10-k), the stock is to be sold at the earliest opportunity. This would be the day following the filing. The 26th

                                There was absolutely nothing the officers could have done to stop the sale. To do so would break the law and in the very least could be construed to be insider trading. Fyi Liangs 10b5-1 provides for 300k shares total sales to june 2025. It's all disclosed in the 10k. This sale was a mere 46,293 shares.

                                I hope that clears this up. The ultracrepidarian is again, off the mark.

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                                  exIM
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #136

                                  +1 for 'ultracrepidarian' 😁

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                                    mikeiow
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #137

                                    Yup, that was my understanding regarding Exec team stock sales. Thx for confirming it still holds 👍

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                                      Adam Kay
                                      Global Moderator
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #138

                                      Screen Shot 2025-03-05 at 08.53.59.png

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                                        Adam Kay
                                        Global Moderator
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #139

                                        Here is a work in progress (above) detail my forward looking figures. Underlying it is a correlation to Nvidia revenue-it's all about the access to silicon. The dip in operating margin (7.9%) is clear as to the reasons but has historically been around the 10% mark and with scale imo will expand well above 10%

                                        The 10-k late filing cost them around $30M in additional costs
                                        R&D shot up by $60M in the quarter which is all the upfront Blackwell preparation
                                        I suspect a lot of that is also staff hires in Malaysia and the DLC build out-it won't all be capex X
                                        The point being, I would now expect a more normalised margin, at least post Q3(March)Note: The company guided $40B for fiscal 26 and above we are estimating $50.85B, yes a large beat but we have good reason to take this view. We will soon find out whether the quarterly revenue is aligned to this target.

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                                          Adam Kay
                                          Global Moderator
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #140

                                          Late next month they will update for the current quarter. The guide was $5-$6. Above we have 6,165K and I would speculate that the new norm is to guide conservatively. In this example $7-$8B and we expect 8,505K.
                                          This is the sort of trend we would want to see.
                                          Posted for posterity. Today the company trades, based on the above at 4.6X June 26 Operating income. Will it age well

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                                          The value of your investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invested.

                                          Cobens a trading name of Astute Financial Management UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Address: 4th Floor Peek House, 20 Eastcheap, London, EC3M 1EB. Registered in England and Wales No. 5850981.

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