Thoughts on short term market direction
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Trump will not want to be associated with a declining stock market and rising inflation….i bet there are deals to be made in the coming weeks
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my Coben s portfolio seems to have dropped 15% in a week hows everyone else feeling about riding this out?
@markiii said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
my Coben s portfolio seems to have dropped 15% in a week how's everyone else feeling about riding this out?
I'm only Holding PHT in Cobens which I assume is among the highest volatility and I am down 3.63% in week , ....its however down 15% since what looks now as a very brief peak this YTD around 19 Feb
Ride it out ? that rather depends if it ends....but I am staying in and that's thatIn other news , YTD I am down 3.3% This year so far all in mix of Vanguards Global and S&P500 trackers ( mid 6 fig ) hey-ho , again that's a hold for sure .
Main pension is a Db ( now deferred until I decide to start drawing ) .....so that helps me feel like I can just cruise . The optimist in me makes me think I should start drawing and take the 25% tax free lump and pile in at new cheap levels big time . Down side is it would all have to be in GIA , as ISA already allocated
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Nothing is down 15% in a week-fake news
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@markiii said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
my Coben s portfolio seems to have dropped 15% in a week how's everyone else feeling about riding this out?
I'm only Holding PHT in Cobens which I assume is among the highest volatility and I am down 3.63% in week , ....its however down 15% since what looks now as a very brief peak this YTD around 19 Feb
Ride it out ? that rather depends if it ends....but I am staying in and that's thatIn other news , YTD I am down 3.3% This year so far all in mix of Vanguards Global and S&P500 trackers ( mid 6 fig ) hey-ho , again that's a hold for sure .
Main pension is a Db ( now deferred until I decide to start drawing ) .....so that helps me feel like I can just cruise . The optimist in me makes me think I should start drawing and take the 25% tax free lump and pile in at new cheap levels big time . Down side is it would all have to be in GIA , as ISA already allocated
@PM3 said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
its however down 15% since what looks now as a very brief peak this YTD around 19 Feb
I concur with the above, overall the value of my portfolio is back to where it was at the start of November.
Hopefully things will settle down, and we can get back to happier markets.
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My portfolio is up today, by a whisker. Which is the first day in about a month that it hasn't fallen.
I suspect that when the Trump Tariff storm blows over and there is a ceasefire (and hopefully peace deal) in Ukraine/Russia then things will start to bob up again. Hopefully today is the start of this.
(Putting this comment in the 'Short term market direction' thread as it seems more appropriate here.)
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Tech +2.5%
IML +1%
PH Equity-down 0.56%Tech/IML have feared better than their benchmarks.
Nvidia is the technology barometer. Anyone interested should watch the GTC keynote March 18th. They will definitely talk about new developments, including I hope, an early Rubin release(6 months early). The Blackwell ultra, Rubin Ultra and probably Rubin-next. Robotics, ADAS, Quantum, health, sovereign ai, Omniverse. Plus HBM-4, Spectrum-X etc.
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Tech +2.5%
IML +1%
PH Equity-down 0.56%Tech/IML have feared better than their benchmarks.
Nvidia is the technology barometer. Anyone interested should watch the GTC keynote March 18th. They will definitely talk about new developments, including I hope, an early Rubin release(6 months early). The Blackwell ultra, Rubin Ultra and probably Rubin-next. Robotics, ADAS, Quantum, health, sovereign ai, Omniverse. Plus HBM-4, Spectrum-X etc.
@Adam-Kay are these YTD numbers?
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HI,
No they were in response to 2BToo 'up a whisker on the day(daily)
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Up a small bit today but numbers for tomorrow are not looking pretty at all.
This rut is taking a while to get out of.
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My portfolio is up today, by a whisker. Which is the first day in about a month that it hasn't fallen.
I suspect that when the Trump Tariff storm blows over and there is a ceasefire (and hopefully peace deal) in Ukraine/Russia then things will start to bob up again. Hopefully today is the start of this.
(Putting this comment in the 'Short term market direction' thread as it seems more appropriate here.)
@2BToo said in Thoughts on short term market direction:
My portfolio is up today, by a whisker. Which is the first day in about a month that it hasn't fallen.
I suspect that when the Trump Tariff storm blows over and there is a ceasefire (and hopefully peace deal) in Ukraine/Russia then things will start to bob up again. Hopefully today is the start of this.
(Putting this comment in the 'Short term market direction' thread as it seems more appropriate here.)
Quoting myself as it seems I was wrong. More tariffs from Trump. Suits him, I guess, but doesn't suit everyone else.
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Other than loving wielding power, I’m struggling to see how it even suits Trump for the S&P to slump 2% in a day because of him, or for his joke of a social media company to be at it’s lowest value since he won the election
.These things come around in time but this is a president ignoring qualified advice and effectively off the rails. To pull what I am saying back on topic, my hopes are not high for the markets in the short term.
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Those reacting might want to fact check the tariffs announcements.
'Reciprocal tariffs DO NOT apply to semi conductors'
or pharmaceuticals, lumber, gold, minerals. Confirmed by the White House
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Nvidia CEO says tariffs will have minimal impact and longer term they are shifting their supply chain to the US.
Meanwhile in China, the H20 chip stock has been depleted due to XOS purchases by Alibaba and tencent(so says local server manufacturers(China) in an email to clients. Last week Alibaba said 'we don't need so many chips-the US is over building, then confirmed they purchased $16B in H20 chips a week later'. The games being played and some swallow it.
You would think the company was on fire yet their prospects, earnings and growth never looked better.
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Snag is that while companies may have cracking prospects, it's the markets which make us money. And the fact that semiconductors are exempt from these tariffs isn't that helpful when we're diversely invested with a portfolio that covers other things as well.
I know this thread is 'short term market direction' but I wonder what the medium term looks like and what Trump wants to achieve. He doesn't want higher prices and a trade war any more than we do. I wonder if this is a means of putting pressure on other countries to lower their US tariffs, and he's hoping for leaders to do this very quickly, with the promise that if they do then the reciprocal tariff will be dropped equally quickly.
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That is very much the goal/intention.
And on markets making money. This is a short term correction which will work its way out through reciprocal compromise and adjustment. We invest in sound businesses and taxes don't factor into it when it's a carpet bomb approach. Some goods and services will be more expensive, some suppliers will absorb the tax, some will share it-it will depend on the product, the margin and their pricing power dynamics. A fungible product with many alternatives-the end user will shop elsewhere, a more monopolistic product with few alternatives, consumers will have to pay. My opinion, if most of the targeted products are China sourced, the biggest loser will be China as they will absorb most of the tax(net).
At the end of the day it is very early days and the impact is not only unknown it is also capped to an extent. We know how this administration can pivot very quickly. The biggest fear was tax on chips even though it was never going to be significant given the margins...A $50K chip costs no more that $8K so 30% is $2,400 (50k vs 52,400) not exactly a big deal yet we now know there are no taxes on chips.
Stating the obvious, investing is a long term strategy. We've seen corrections before (2023), Nvidia was $10, remember, down from $28. It was recently as high as $150. All I can tell you is the company’s prospects, based on objective fact are much better today than when it was at its peak and the quarterly updates, innovation and dominance will prove that as the year progresses-markets won't ignore that.
Nvidia is the tech barometer. It is very important. It is by far the most important company, globally, is the most valuable by far and it is only getting started. In bull markets it’s easy to ‘make money’. When markets get choppy, one must rely on evidence to drive your decision making-the evidence is unequivocal.