Thoughts on short term market direction

Adam Kay

I think it’s a ploy to bring other countries in line. I’m agnostic but when you look at some of the trade situations it does appear odd. Europe do appear to hammer US imports. My opinion is a deal will be agreed and we move on.

Ducati996R

Trump will not want to be associated with a declining stock market and rising inflation….i bet there are deals to be made in the coming weeks

markiii

my Coben s portfolio seems to have dropped 15% in a week hows everyone else feeling about riding this out?

PM3

@markiii said in Thoughts on short term market direction:

my Coben s portfolio seems to have dropped 15% in a week how's everyone else feeling about riding this out?

I'm only Holding PHT in Cobens which I assume is among the highest volatility and I am down 3.63% in week , ....its however down 15% since what looks now as a very brief peak this YTD around 19 Feb
Ride it out ? that rather depends if it ends....but I am staying in and that's that

In other news , YTD I am down 3.3% This year so far all in mix of Vanguards Global and S&P500 trackers ( mid 6 fig ) hey-ho , again that's a hold for sure .

Main pension is a Db ( now deferred until I decide to start drawing ) .....so that helps me feel like I can just cruise . The optimist in me makes me think I should start drawing and take the 25% tax free lump and pile in at new cheap levels big time . Down side is it would all have to be in GIA , as ISA already allocated

Adam Kay

Nothing is down 15% in a week-fake news

Ronski

@PM3 said in Thoughts on short term market direction:

its however down 15% since what looks now as a very brief peak this YTD around 19 Feb

I concur with the above, overall the value of my portfolio is back to where it was at the start of November.

Hopefully things will settle down, and we can get back to happier markets.

2BToo

My portfolio is up today, by a whisker. Which is the first day in about a month that it hasn't fallen.

I suspect that when the Trump Tariff storm blows over and there is a ceasefire (and hopefully peace deal) in Ukraine/Russia then things will start to bob up again. Hopefully today is the start of this.

(Putting this comment in the 'Short term market direction' thread as it seems more appropriate here.)

Adam Kay

Tech +2.5%
IML +1%
PH Equity-down 0.56%

Tech/IML have feared better than their benchmarks.

Nvidia is the technology barometer. Anyone interested should watch the GTC keynote March 18th. They will definitely talk about new developments, including I hope, an early Rubin release(6 months early). The Blackwell ultra, Rubin Ultra and probably Rubin-next. Robotics, ADAS, Quantum, health, sovereign ai, Omniverse. Plus HBM-4, Spectrum-X etc.

Slow Horses

@Adam-Kay are these YTD numbers?

Adam Kay

HI,

No they were in response to 2BToo 'up a whisker on the day(daily)

2BToo

Up a small bit today but numbers for tomorrow are not looking pretty at all.

This rut is taking a while to get out of.

Ronski

@2BToo said in Thoughts on short term market direction:

This rut is taking a while to get out of.

Probably as long as it takes to get that idiot out the White House, which could be a very long time.

2BToo

I'm a fan of Trump, but agree that his actions of the last month or so aren't at all helpful for us investors!

Ronski

I'm not sure how anyone can be a fan of him and his side kicks, especially after his recent performances.

2BToo

@2BToo said in Thoughts on short term market direction:

My portfolio is up today, by a whisker. Which is the first day in about a month that it hasn't fallen.

I suspect that when the Trump Tariff storm blows over and there is a ceasefire (and hopefully peace deal) in Ukraine/Russia then things will start to bob up again. Hopefully today is the start of this.

(Putting this comment in the 'Short term market direction' thread as it seems more appropriate here.)

Quoting myself as it seems I was wrong. More tariffs from Trump. Suits him, I guess, but doesn't suit everyone else.

Steve H

Other than loving wielding power, I’m struggling to see how it even suits Trump for the S&P to slump 2% in a day because of him, or for his joke of a social media company to be at it’s lowest value since he won the election .

These things come around in time but this is a president ignoring qualified advice and effectively off the rails. To pull what I am saying back on topic, my hopes are not high for the markets in the short term.

Ronski

Looks like large after hours drops after the tariff announcements, most I look at are 5% or more down in after hours trading, another kick in the nuts by Trump and his cronies.

Adam Kay

Those reacting might want to fact check the tariffs announcements.

'Reciprocal tariffs DO NOT apply to semi conductors'

or pharmaceuticals, lumber, gold, minerals. Confirmed by the White House

Adam Kay

Nvidia CEO says tariffs will have minimal impact and longer term they are shifting their supply chain to the US.

Meanwhile in China, the H20 chip stock has been depleted due to XOS purchases by Alibaba and tencent(so says local server manufacturers(China) in an email to clients. Last week Alibaba said 'we don't need so many chips-the US is over building, then confirmed they purchased $16B in H20 chips a week later'. The games being played and some swallow it.

You would think the company was on fire yet their prospects, earnings and growth never looked better.

2BToo

Snag is that while companies may have cracking prospects, it's the markets which make us money. And the fact that semiconductors are exempt from these tariffs isn't that helpful when we're diversely invested with a portfolio that covers other things as well.

I know this thread is 'short term market direction' but I wonder what the medium term looks like and what Trump wants to achieve. He doesn't want higher prices and a trade war any more than we do. I wonder if this is a means of putting pressure on other countries to lower their US tariffs, and he's hoping for leaders to do this very quickly, with the promise that if they do then the reciprocal tariff will be dropped equally quickly.