Busy couple of weeks on results front
-
Thanks.
-
A quick update on the AI Chip restrictions.
The limits on the export of advanced AI chips were established through an interim final rule, they will not take effect for one year and carry a 120-day comment period. This time allows the Trump administration to modify the regulations if it sees fit. If Trump’s officials make no changes, the rules will come into force in January 2026 as written.
Note: Nothing in the amendments addresses any countries access to cloud-native AI such as that offered by many companies around the globe.
Have a good wend, all
Adam
-
Yes,solid day and solid start to the year.
-
Hi Wibble and thank you. It is very much a Team effort. The market is very unpredictable over 'weeks', any short period in fact, whereas over the longer term prices reflect business fundamentals. You only need to look at KLA Corporation which I have mentioned recently. The stock price softened due to investors sentiment around China, however were wrong about the magnitude of the impact. And more recently it appears they will actually grow earnings over the coming years due to their expertise in the sub 3nm node. Something if you look back, we have been saying for the last 2 years.
Long term, good businesses will reward patient investors via earnings and cashflow growth coupled with compounding (increased dividends and reinvested profits).
We will be making a couple of changes in the coming weeks, once the IC has met to discuss them further.
It is always nice to see new highs but as always past performance is no indication of future returns.
-
A quick update on the AI Chip restrictions.
The limits on the export of advanced AI chips were established through an interim final rule, they will not take effect for one year and carry a 120-day comment period. This time allows the Trump administration to modify the regulations if it sees fit. If Trump’s officials make no changes, the rules will come into force in January 2026 as written.
Note: Nothing in the amendments addresses any countries access to cloud-native AI such as that offered by many companies around the globe.
Have a good wend, all
Adam
@Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
Nothing in the amendments addresses any countries access to cloud-native AI such as that offered by many companies around the globe.
I had this very thought a few weeks back, the hardware doesn't have to be in China to be used by the Chinese, so the restrictions seem fairly easily circumvented.
-
Absolutely correct Ron, as it relates to rogue states(use)This is why it's impossible to police.
-
Hi
US markets will be closed today due to it being Martin Luther King Jr Day. FX markets are open and valuations tomorrow will reflect those movements where applicable.
Regards
-
Most of the ones I have on a watchlist are climbing today, not Apple but all the rest.
I reckon 9/10 chance that Trump will be good for our investments. But the 1/10 option may involve actual apocalypse rather than just some numbers dropping on a spreadsheet
. -
I take a view that Govt policy or governing style have a short term effect as investors speculate on the impact. Long term it's business fundamentals. The US want to increase wealth and are pro business.
Trump policy:
deregulation and tax cuts. America first.
Drill Drill DrillUK policy:
High taxes
strong labour laws
being a good global citizen(ethics). At any cost
equality -
Netflix reported earnings tonight. Record growth, record subscriber numbers and a very big pop after hours to circa usd 1,000.
-
Sam Altman, Open Ai chief joined President Trump to announce the Stargate Project, A $500B data centre/super computer initiative spanning 4 years. Key partners are NVDA, ORCL, OpenAi, ARM, MSFT and Softbank. We will deploy $100B immediately. Altman went on to say 'this infrastructure will secure Americas leadership in AI, create in excess of 100k jobs and create massive economic benefits for the entire world.
The build out is in progress now, starting with Texas. The entire stack will operate on Nvidia hardware and software.
-
Well, it's interesting looking back at the commentary around certain tech names vs the wider noise, naysayers and speculation. I can assure you those that were negative will continue with the same comments. Classic human nature, an inability to change ones mind or simple envy. Take your pick.
The area where there is the most misunderstanding is, the built out of AI is required to make machines a LOT smarter than they are today. A machine 100X smarter than a human. We aren't even 1X yet. Further the foundational models build on one another. You can't build chatgpt 10 without building 5 through 9. Further there is simply not the GPU or HBM or the rack scale capacity or the power supply to build it even if you wanted too. Stargate looks to be around 5M GPU, it will vary because one must assume chips being used which haven't been built like Ruben next. Masa Son speculated 20M would be needed to run the known models being built today. This is just the chatgpt, llama, Claude, PaLM models. Many times more will be needed for robotics, autonomous cars, enterprise and sovereign solutions.
-
The build out(progress) is an investment in the future, no different to any other major infrastructure. The goal is it will pay off significantly for the early investors. And the point I'm making is, we don't have to defend our position because it is evidence based. Evidence that shows clearly that the main players in this space have a very long runway for growth. A runway that is clearly much bigger than even the most bullish actually thought.
-
A good example of why we maintain a US centric strategic asset allocation:
INDIA
A year ago, India was recovering from a recession triggered by Covid-19 with renewed optimism. The country had surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, and its leaders were proclaiming India as the fastest-growing major economy globally.
This was music to the ears of foreign investors, and to India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, who, at every opportunity, boasted about his nation’s inevitable ascent. With a population of 1.4 billion, a revitalised India could potentially become an economic powerhouse, driving growth across the world, which was still grappling with trade wars, China's difficulties, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
India overtook the UK in 2022 to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, and by next year, it is anticipated to surpass Germany to claim the fourth spot. However, India has recently shown signs of slowing down, exposing its vulnerabilities even as it rises in global rankings.
The stock market, which had enjoyed years of growth, has now erased the gains of the past six months. The currency, the rupee, is rapidly depreciating against the dollar, diminishing the value of local earnings on the international stage. India’s emerging middle class, whose wealth soared post-pandemic, is now questioning where things have gone wrong.Since the government withdrew large sums of cash from circulation in 2016 in a failed attempt to curb the underground economy, the economy has never quite regained its previous pace of 8 percent growth. It only appeared better because of the "Covid dip," which affected many economies. India’s economy didn’t return to its pre-pandemic size until last year, later than most other nations.
The reasons behind the slowdown are open to debate. However, one impact is certain: foreign investors have been exiting the market.
“Foreign investment has decided that the Indian stock market is overvalued,” prof at LSE 'asian economies'. “It’s quite logical that they would exit these troublesome emerging economies and invest where they can earn more,” such as on Wall Street."The above notwithstanding, India even at its peak, significantly underperformed IML
-
Sam Altman, Open Ai chief joined President Trump to announce the Stargate Project, A $500B data centre/super computer initiative spanning 4 years. Key partners are NVDA, ORCL, OpenAi, ARM, MSFT and Softbank. We will deploy $100B immediately. Altman went on to say 'this infrastructure will secure Americas leadership in AI, create in excess of 100k jobs and create massive economic benefits for the entire world.
The build out is in progress now, starting with Texas. The entire stack will operate on Nvidia hardware and software.
