Busy couple of weeks on results front
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I just checked for friday, my Vanguard ( largely global and SP500 ) went up about 0.38 and Cobens ( PHT ) ~0.34 so looks consistent. The individual items performance on spot prices at end suggested a better bump like you indicate ..... must all be down to the reporting of the funds timings .
Thats It , I promise myself not to look until next Friday close as an end of year wrap up. Best wishes and a Merry Christmas to everyone
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The stocks ended up 0.90 offset by 0.6 fx
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Hi Steve,
The currency was against us last quarter and in our favour over recent weeks. Not on Friday. With the Fed tempering expectations it’s a natural expectation.
Regards
Adam -
Morning All,
The dashboard is now up to date
Regards
Adam
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Nvidia Robotics initiatives. 2025, the year of autonomous machines.
Nvidia plans to launch its Jetson Thor computers for humanoid robots by mid-2025, targeting AI-driven robot enhancements.
Nvidia's new platform aims to improve robot autonomy, focusing on partnerships with Siemens, Universal Robots, and Tesla.NVIDIA is set to accelerate its development of humanoid robots in the next year, as Team Green is preparing to release dedicated compact computers under the "Jetson Thor" series.
NVIDIA Is Prepared To Capitalise On The "Humanoid Robotics" Hype As The Industry Is Expected To Grow Up To $195 Billion By 2029
When we talk about how AI is going to evolve from hereon, the one discussion in everyone's mind is automated robots, primarily since AGI has taken over the industry. Now, in a report by the Financial Times, it seems like the upcoming year will likely mark the next phase of the AI hype, where robotics will play a huge role in driving the markets further on. Team Green will introduce their next-gen "Jetson Thor" computing lineup in the first half of 2025, likely acting as a catalyst in the development of humanoid robots.
Tesla Optimus robot will utilise Nvidia hardware. This illustrates just how superior their technology is. If Musk could create an equal, he would. And whilst FSD (cars) has been quiet for some time, it will be cracked at some point. With Tesla valuation predicated on FSD, we have mentioned many times that Nvidia is likely to take a significant global share in this market due to their partnerships with Mercedes-Benz and its MBUX infotainment system, Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo, Polestar, Lucid, and robotaxis from Amazon's Zoox and General Motors' Cruise, Hyundai, BYD.It is said that NVIDIA has already recognised humanoid robots as the next big thing in the markets, which is why the company is building an ecosystem around the segment, offering software and hardware expertise. With the advent of genAI, coupled with how model training has now evolved to be done in stimulated environments(Omniverse), such as with Project GR00T, it has created the perfect setup for robotic advancement.
Dr Fan, head of Robotics at Nvidia said 'everything that moves will be autonomous. Every year from now will be the year of robotics. Here's to a wild 2025 ahead'
In other news ByteDance, the Tik Tok parent has managed to order $7B in Blackwell chips for 2025 provided it utilises the technology outside of China.
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Good to see you back Adam.
It seems that the hoped-for Santa Rally has disappeared along with the Christmas Booze, but I'm sure the fun will begin again soon. Thanks for the update about Humanoid Robots, and hopefully NVIDA will make the most of the opportunities!
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Stock futures are up materially as the market turns its attention away from interest rate cuts and onto the perceived positives from reports suggesting Trump will take a more restrained approach to imposing tariffs. It now looks like tariffs will be racheted up over time, allowing a period of negotiation.
The nasdaq is +200 in the futures market suggesting investors feel positive about the news.
The Labour market figures for Dec will be published shortly also.
In our opinion the final Biden Chip restrictions document-a 200 page amendment, which has 120 days to come into effect, will be repealed by Trump.
Bond yields- we don't see this as a big issue on the basis yields are rising because of strength in the economy(US), a somewhat different scenario in the UK where yields are rising because of debt demand. Interestingly you would normally see GBP strengthen under this scenario. However, it is actually weakening because investors are shying away from UK assets. Simple FX flow in play. Foreign investors are selling UK assets(in GBP) which is weakening the currency.
'Ask yourself, would you rather have growth+moderate interest rates, or no growth and very low rates'. Rates were higher previously and that didn't hurt wider spending. With rates even lower now(but not low enough for some) growth continues.
PM Starmers AI comments make little sense. UK PLC will invest £15B? By 2030 to 20X the speed of their computers? These are quotes from his news conference. Xai stood up their latest DC in 130 days. Nvidia powered computers have gained 1000X speed gains in 8 years so 20x in 5 doesn't make a lot of sense to me. But apparently the UK will lead the world in AI. Unless the govt adda zero to that 15B it won't get out of the blocks.
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I don't pay much attention to what Starmer says, they already cost me this years pay rise, so much for not hitting the working man in the pocket!
Most politicians are clueless when it comes to technology anyway.
@Ronski said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
I don't pay much attention to what Starmer says, they already cost me this years pay rise, so much for not hitting the working man in the pocket!
Most politicians are clueless when it comes to technology anyway.
Ronski, you're wrong. ALL politicians are clueless when it comes to tech, not just most. KS's pitch was a classic "let's talk about something that is exciting and edgy, to make us sound like we are on-board with all this exciting and edgy stuff". Just a variation of "look at the shiny-shiny".
Thanks for your post Adam. Almost all of it went over my head, but it all sounds positive so what could possibly go wrong!
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Stock futures are up materially as the market turns its attention away from interest rate cuts and onto the perceived positives from reports suggesting Trump will take a more restrained approach to imposing tariffs. It now looks like tariffs will be racheted up over time, allowing a period of negotiation.
The nasdaq is +200 in the futures market suggesting investors feel positive about the news.
The Labour market figures for Dec will be published shortly also.
In our opinion the final Biden Chip restrictions document-a 200 page amendment, which has 120 days to come into effect, will be repealed by Trump.
Bond yields- we don't see this as a big issue on the basis yields are rising because of strength in the economy(US), a somewhat different scenario in the UK where yields are rising because of debt demand. Interestingly you would normally see GBP strengthen under this scenario. However, it is actually weakening because investors are shying away from UK assets. Simple FX flow in play. Foreign investors are selling UK assets(in GBP) which is weakening the currency.
'Ask yourself, would you rather have growth+moderate interest rates, or no growth and very low rates'. Rates were higher previously and that didn't hurt wider spending. With rates even lower now(but not low enough for some) growth continues.
PM Starmers AI comments make little sense. UK PLC will invest £15B? By 2030 to 20X the speed of their computers? These are quotes from his news conference. Xai stood up their latest DC in 130 days. Nvidia powered computers have gained 1000X speed gains in 8 years so 20x in 5 doesn't make a lot of sense to me. But apparently the UK will lead the world in AI. Unless the govt adda zero to that 15B it won't get out of the blocks.
@Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
In our opinion the final Biden Chip restrictions document-a 200 page amendment, which has 120 days to come into effect, will be repealed by Trump.
Forgive the selective quoting but this is interesting. Presumably this refers to the restrictions that the USGovt has placed on selling more powerful AI chips to China? If so then my guess would be that Biden would be less inclined to restrict the sale of such chips and Trump more inclined to do so. Hence why would Trump repeal any restrictions placed by Biden?
Or have I misunderstood something?
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Hi O,
It is more about codifying who they can sell chips to without approval. A new three tiered system. China, Russia and a few ME countries have historically been restricted above a certain transistor count(power). They've now made up 3 lists and said:
11 countries can buy whatever they want and any quantity they choose
second list can buy whatever they want but only X$ without getting approval
third list can only buy up the previously prescribed power (node/transistor count).The bottom line is, China will get the chips it wants whether that be physical silicon or via the cloud. What Nvidia and others are saying is, this new law won't help the US and it will only force some countries to seek alternatives like China. It's highly political and the timing is no coincidence. Trump will likely repeal it because he will want to put his mark on the sector and it's bad policy. If left unchecked this new policy will only cede some of the technological lead to other countries. It's as simple as that. is it a concern? Not really, because demand exceeds supply and will remain same for at least a couple of years.
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KLA Corporation has been on the move recently, +22% YTD due to accelerated CoWoS packaging capacity build out at TSM, who have moved plans to build the largest packaging facility in the world and install 2,000 machines. Plus the further shrinking of logic and DRAM to the N2 node means increased need for KLA's process control, metrology and inspection solutions.
As we have discussed previously, the market doesn't fully understand the drivers of KLA revenue. Their services revenue is driven by an installed based of 50k machines and customers pay a reoccurring fee for ongoing support. KLA has a 96% renewal rate making this segment very sticky. Further > 50% of said machines are over 18 years old so clearly any China sanctions are not directed at this level of technology.
TSM has signalled 'significant capex' in the area of advanced packaging, an area which KLA dominates.
The company is also repositioning itself towards silicon carbide and gallium nitride management systems where the costs involved are very high and there is a drive for zero defects.
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KLA Corporation has been on the move recently, +22% YTD due to accelerated CoWoS packaging capacity build out at TSM, who have moved plans to build the largest packaging facility in the world and install 2,000 machines. Plus the further shrinking of logic and DRAM to the N2 node means increased need for KLA's process control, metrology and inspection solutions.
As we have discussed previously, the market doesn't fully understand the drivers of KLA revenue. Their services revenue is driven by an installed based of 50k machines and customers pay a reoccurring fee for ongoing support. KLA has a 96% renewal rate making this segment very sticky. Further > 50% of said machines are over 18 years old so clearly any China sanctions are not directed at this level of technology.
TSM has signalled 'significant capex' in the area of advanced packaging, an area which KLA dominates.
The company is also repositioning itself towards silicon carbide and gallium nitride management systems where the costs involved are very high and there is a drive for zero defects.
@Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
KLA Corporation has been on the move recently, +22% YTD
Apologies for the muppety question: is that +22% in the last 16 days or the last 365 days?
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Thanks.
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A quick update on the AI Chip restrictions.
The limits on the export of advanced AI chips were established through an interim final rule, they will not take effect for one year and carry a 120-day comment period. This time allows the Trump administration to modify the regulations if it sees fit. If Trump’s officials make no changes, the rules will come into force in January 2026 as written.
Note: Nothing in the amendments addresses any countries access to cloud-native AI such as that offered by many companies around the globe.
Have a good wend, all
Adam
