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  3. Busy couple of weeks on results front

Busy couple of weeks on results front

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Investments and Portfolios
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    Adam Kay
    Global Moderator
    wrote on last edited by
    #288

    UK financial markets are under severe pressure as gilt yields surge and sterling tumbles. As of today, 2 September 2025, the 30-year UK gilt yield has risen to 5.69%, its highest level since 1998. This is up from 5.27% on 24 June, when the Labour government took office, marking a 42 basis point increase. The sharp rise reflects deep investor concern over the government’s fiscal management, with fears that borrowing and long-dated debt issuance could escalate. Sterling has fallen over 1% against the US dollar, highlighting eroding confidence in the UK economy. Inflation remains sticky, public finances are under strain, and tax rises are now widely expected — a move that is likely to weigh on businesses and investment. Many are questioning Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ handling of the economy, with some speculating she could be replaced if conditions continue to deteriorate. Political and economic uncertainty are driving yields higher and market sentiment lower.

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      Ducati996R
      wrote on last edited by
      #289

      Problem is thou …..none of her potential replacements seem to have a grasp on basic economics

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        Adam Kay
        Global Moderator
        wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
        #290

        I think the issues are-and im staying apolitical

        Trust gap: The rhetorical wriggling reinforces the idea Labour says one thing, does another. I recall the first budget was a big shock, given the promises made not to and then another promise 'not to ever repeat it'. And it would seem the chancellor is leaking her ideas to see the reaction in advance. A novel way of formulating policy.

        Economic credibility vs political honesty: Reeves is trying to be “fiscally serious” for the markets, while telling the public it won’t hurt them. The problem is, ordinary voters feel the hurt in their rent, bills, and taxes—so the words ring hollow. And I suspect there might be a shortage of broad shoulders after November.

        Long tail risk: If the perception hardens that Labour is “mealy-mouthed,” it can lose the moral high ground it’s been trading on since Johnson/Truss era Tory chaos. Anyone recall the recent 'tweet' about lowering bus fares for families, when in fact the fare went up.

        I think it's fair to say, the public is tired of hearing the government pat themselves on the back when it is clear the economy is faltering -inflation is sticky, growth evades us and interest rates are high. I'm surprised the BOE lowered rates (political?)

        It is one thing to raise capital for investment. It's another to raise income to spend it on 'stuff' and it would appear this government has no intention of reigning in spending of any kind.

        And then you have the Minister for Housing, who has gone on record before, calling out legal avoidance and how wrong it is, only to do the exact same thing. Regardless of your political colours this is poor. I'm sure she did something previously to mitigate GCT on her cheap council flat-the flat she bought under a scheme she then withdrew. Or is it tax everyone with money just as long as it's not me.

        The issue with the UK is low productivity, particularly in the public sector

        The bottom line is, higher costs are exactly the same as taxes so high inflation, higher interest rates, higher business costs, landlords, property, you name it are ALL taxes on working people.

        That's my brief take-all while staying agnostic of course 🙂

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          Ronski
          wrote on last edited by
          #291

          I'm sick of labour blaming the conservatives for everything (they've been in power over a year now!). I also haven't had a pay rise since very early last year, the reason, minimum wage going up (so lower paid colleagues have, narrowing the pay gap) and national insurance rises, amongst other increasing costs, and thus the company can't afford to pay us more - yet they can still afford very expensive holidays! Labour has literally taken money out of my pocket, and they said they wouldn't hit the working man.

          They need to get a grip on why things cost so much, the Faroe islands built a tunnel system with an undersea roundabout with three tunnels coming off it, total cost circa £500m. We on the other hand haven't even put a spade in the ground yet the lower Thames crossing has so far cost circa £1 billion.

          Its only going to get worse.

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            dingg
            wrote on last edited by dingg
            #292

            The tories are just as bad

            Miss appropriation of funds for ppe
            Eat out to help out
            Covid furlough bollocks
            Boris
            Unable to follow their own laws during covid
            J rees mogg
            Chancellors dodging tax

            Not to forget Liz Truss and Kwazi Kwarteng

            The whole lot are a shitshow

            Best keep politics for another place 😎

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              Adam Kay
              Global Moderator
              wrote on last edited by
              #293

              Ron and anyone else-you are free to discuss politics if you wish. After all, it has an outsized impact on your investments. Some warranted and perhaps even more that is not and why we have a non UK tilt for the present period and have done for some time.

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                Adam Kay
                Global Moderator
                wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
                #294

                Interesting to see AI agents gaining traction, and why not. It's obvious we are on the cusp of a pervasive AI based customer support roll out. Calling a bank, utility or telco fills most customers with dread. I can see interactions in the near future being via an App and verbal, not necessarily initiated by a phone call.

                Think about a machine that will know a lot more about your use case and the services offered-far more than any human can.

                Screenshot 2025-09-03 at 09.03.43.png

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                  SteveRutter
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #295

                  Bit of a leap in the old Retirement funds this morning!

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                    Rodders
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #296

                    Yes, happy days. Nice work Adam, Nik & Team!

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                      2BToo
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #297

                      Absolutely. Always good to see those numbers going up, and big jumps are particularly welcome!

                      Thanks to all who made it happen.

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                        Ducati996R
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #298

                        I was waiting in anticipation for this morning….very happy !!!!
                        As the guys have said …Top job from the team

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                          Jason Knowles
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #299

                          Very happy with how my tech fund is going, onwards and upwards hopefully.

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                            Adam Kay
                            Global Moderator
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #300

                            Hi Jason,

                            A few others have also done well. Added what is a good return YTD should take into account the general back drop of the wider market(s). There is still a lot of red out there this year. Lifestyle is about +12%. Yes Tech is doing very well. I don't focus on outperforming other tech portfolios but it has. And whilst past performance is no indication of future returns.....ARK Innovation is the only product that has done better this year. And ARK has lost 80% of its value in some years. Nothing in the UK/Europe that I can see has achieved better returns over time so we are very pleased by that stat.

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                              Jason Knowles
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #301

                              Thanks Adam, I also have funds in Global growth, how is that comparing to Lifestyle and is it worth switching. What are your thoughts. Thanks Jason.

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                                Adam Kay
                                Global Moderator
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #302

                                Hi,
                                Opt GG has achieved 8.1% YTD

                                Lifestyle 1 yr 11.7%
                                Opt GG 1 y 12.38%

                                Opt GG 3 yr 35.62%
                                Lifestyle 3 yr 79.8%

                                And in 20/21 Lifestyle returned this:
                                Screenshot 2025-09-11 at 15.05.38.png

                                GG
                                Screenshot 2025-09-11 at 15.06.54.png
                                So looking at a small snap shot is only part of the picture.

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                                  Jason Knowles
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #303

                                  Thanks Adam

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                                    SunsetZed
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #304

                                    Great numbers on my Lifestyle and PHT funds, thanks Adam and team.

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                                      Adam Kay
                                      Global Moderator
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #305

                                      Hi A,

                                      You're very welcome 🙂

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                                        Adam Kay
                                        Global Moderator
                                        wrote on last edited by Adam Kay
                                        #306

                                        In an announcement timed with Donald Trump's state visit, leading American tech giants have pledged over $40 billion in investments to bolster the UK's artificial intelligence ecosystem.

                                        Microsoft spearheads the commitment with $30 billion investment from 2025 to 2028, including $15 billion for capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. This will fund the construction of Britain's largest supercomputer, powered Nvidia GPUs in partnership with Nscale, alongside expansions in cloud computing and data centres. Google follows with $6.5 billion, featuring a new Hertfordshire data centre and support for its DeepMind AI research unit in London.

                                        OpenAI, Nvidia, and cloud provider CoreWeave add billions more for data centres and renewable-energy-powered facilities in Scotland and the North East. Salesforce ups its stake to $6 billion while Blackstone eyes $12.8 billion (£10 billion) for an AI Growth Zone in Blyth, promising 5,000 jobs.

                                        Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the deals as a "vote of confidence" in Britain's tech prowess, coinciding with a new US-UK "Technology Prosperity Deal" on AI, quantum computing, and nuclear energy (it's not really, it's about being close to your customers and a need for power capacity). Starmer is also quoted as saying 'Labour is securing high paying jobs and putting more money in peoples pockets'.👏

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                                          Adam Kay
                                          Global Moderator
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #307

                                          I watched the round of speeches during the State Banquet. The cameras spending a disproportionate amount of time on this attendee Screenshot 2025-09-18 at 00.03.31.png

                                          He certainly gets around :). Jensen commented today on the frustrations with China and US relations. He said and quote "I'm disappointed with what I see, but they have larger agendas to work out between China and the United States, and I'm patient about it."

                                          Wise words. The company is thriving in a difficult geopolitical environment as a back drop to fierce competition. I would think he has one of the toughest jobs bar none, and still they excel. Their valuation by any measure is unstretched given their growth and future market opportunities.

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