Busy couple of weeks on results front
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Some may have noticed, Twilio reported last week, dropping 20% on the news to sub $100. We sold our position in February in the $140s.
Twilio keeps handing over stock to employees to the tune of $600M annually, at the expense of shareholders. One could tolerate this if there was strong growth but 10-11% top line growth and still no earnings. Feb saw the market massively over paying for the stock(imo) and we made the opportunistic decision to exit with a significant profit.
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Coreweave CEO says demand for AI racks is insatiable with the demand/supply imbalance getting bigger.
As we have said before, supply has been the constraint and will remain same. In the 'years' ahead it will probably switch to Power constraint. We have looked at power infrastructure companies in the past, discussed it internally and here. My view was that power being a commodity is relatively low margin vs high capital cost(to scale it). What I didn't consider is the massive pull fwd the market gamblers would attribute to various stocks and bid them up to a bubbly froth. Utilities companies should not trade at multiples of 50+ and only we aint playing.
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At Jackson Hole, Powell noted that a shifting balance of risks “may require adjusting our policy stance,” indicating potential readiness to lower the central bank’s policy rate if warranted.“Inflation risks are skewed upwards, while employment risks are downwards — a complex scenario,” Powell added.Consequently, the likelihood of a September rate cut increased, rising from ~71% before the speech to ~93% afterwards.
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.... all of which made for a nice jump in the markets. Which is most welcome as they seem to have been stagnating of late.
(And an aside: the scrolling to the bottom of a long thread like this is a bit faff-y. Could it be split into pages, a la PH? Perhaps I should suggest this elsewhere.)
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Hi O,
It's not stagnation more consolidation. Look where we have come from.
22/April to 22 July > 40% rally in Tech/Growth
22 July to 222 August has been flat.The rally isn't typical however the pause is. Many reasons for it.
Market awaits new information
The buyers that pushed prices higher step back
Stock holders take profit
We have given back 2-3% on the FX rateThe usual psychologies weigh on our minds as rapid gains prevail it's too easy to expect them daily/weekly. It doesn't work like that. There is also (still) a lot of DT noise we have to wade through.
Cheers
Adam
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Exchange rate, usd weaker v gbp by 0.8% on expected rate cut following Jackson Hole commentary
@dingg said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
Exchange rate, usd weaker v gbp by 0.8% on expected rate cut following Jackson Hole commentary
Also, I believe (I'm sure I'll be corrected if wrong) that the daily update of values we see is not from close of US markets, but some time before that, so if they rose, or fell, later in the session we may not see that next day?
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All prices are taken after the US close. FX is taken at 23.30GMT. With trackers(Global) some of their holdings are on exchanges which have not closed/opened at that time so these specific holdings will not be that days close.
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Hi Ron, There isn't a snap shot take at 3pm UK. I think it's all taken 23.30 GMT(for us) and by doing so it captures the UK close and the US close. The broker-dealer probably does take prices before then as they will supply data to many other asset managers and some of them may report(they do) at 10.30pm uk time (t0) particularly if they have a large exposure to UK stocks.
I hope this helps
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3pm(UK) is 'around' the time that the days buying and selling is conducted.
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UK financial markets are under severe pressure as gilt yields surge and sterling tumbles. As of today, 2 September 2025, the 30-year UK gilt yield has risen to 5.69%, its highest level since 1998. This is up from 5.27% on 24 June, when the Labour government took office, marking a 42 basis point increase. The sharp rise reflects deep investor concern over the government’s fiscal management, with fears that borrowing and long-dated debt issuance could escalate. Sterling has fallen over 1% against the US dollar, highlighting eroding confidence in the UK economy. Inflation remains sticky, public finances are under strain, and tax rises are now widely expected — a move that is likely to weigh on businesses and investment. Many are questioning Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ handling of the economy, with some speculating she could be replaced if conditions continue to deteriorate. Political and economic uncertainty are driving yields higher and market sentiment lower.
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Problem is thou …..none of her potential replacements seem to have a grasp on basic economics
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I think the issues are-and im staying apolitical
Trust gap: The rhetorical wriggling reinforces the idea Labour says one thing, does another. I recall the first budget was a big shock, given the promises made not to and then another promise 'not to ever repeat it'. And it would seem the chancellor is leaking her ideas to see the reaction in advance. A novel way of formulating policy.
Economic credibility vs political honesty: Reeves is trying to be “fiscally serious” for the markets, while telling the public it won’t hurt them. The problem is, ordinary voters feel the hurt in their rent, bills, and taxes—so the words ring hollow. And I suspect there might be a shortage of broad shoulders after November.
Long tail risk: If the perception hardens that Labour is “mealy-mouthed,” it can lose the moral high ground it’s been trading on since Johnson/Truss era Tory chaos. Anyone recall the recent 'tweet' about lowering bus fares for families, when in fact the fare went up.
I think it's fair to say, the public is tired of hearing the government pat themselves on the back when it is clear the economy is faltering -inflation is sticky, growth evades us and interest rates are high. I'm surprised the BOE lowered rates (political?)
It is one thing to raise capital for investment. It's another to raise income to spend it on 'stuff' and it would appear this government has no intention of reigning in spending of any kind.
And then you have the Minister for Housing, who has gone on record before, calling out legal avoidance and how wrong it is, only to do the exact same thing. Regardless of your political colours this is poor. I'm sure she did something previously to mitigate GCT on her cheap council flat-the flat she bought under a scheme she then withdrew. Or is it tax everyone with money just as long as it's not me.
The issue with the UK is low productivity, particularly in the public sector
The bottom line is, higher costs are exactly the same as taxes so high inflation, higher interest rates, higher business costs, landlords, property, you name it are ALL taxes on working people.
That's my brief take-all while staying agnostic of course
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I'm sick of labour blaming the conservatives for everything (they've been in power over a year now!). I also haven't had a pay rise since very early last year, the reason, minimum wage going up (so lower paid colleagues have, narrowing the pay gap) and national insurance rises, amongst other increasing costs, and thus the company can't afford to pay us more - yet they can still afford very expensive holidays! Labour has literally taken money out of my pocket, and they said they wouldn't hit the working man.
They need to get a grip on why things cost so much, the Faroe islands built a tunnel system with an undersea roundabout with three tunnels coming off it, total cost circa £500m. We on the other hand haven't even put a spade in the ground yet the lower Thames crossing has so far cost circa £1 billion.
Its only going to get worse.
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The tories are just as bad
Miss appropriation of funds for ppe
Eat out to help out
Covid furlough bollocks
Boris
Unable to follow their own laws during covid
J rees mogg
Chancellors dodging taxNot to forget Liz Truss and Kwazi Kwarteng
The whole lot are a shitshow
Best keep politics for another place
