Busy couple of weeks on results front
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Sorry to keep talking about the opposition here (I'm hoping it's not a bannable offence) but Fundsmith has jumped like a jumping thing today. And my experience is that rises in FS one day are often followed by a rise in the IM number the following morning.
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I am more than happy to discuss Fundsmith-we don't compete with them because our point of difference is that clients have access to the people who directly influence the decisions surrounding their investments and operationally, where possible we do our best to meet their needs one on one, even if its a quick turn around to any comms.
When you say jumped 'today', I assume you are looking at the ETF? As you know they hold Meta, GOOG and MSFT, ball up today nicely. There is little similarity between FS and Tech/Lifestyle. And just stating a fact, both of our portfolio's had returned significantly greater returns over the last several years.
Real time Tech is up about 2.5%. But remember, fx is volatile at the moment and we take a cut off at 11.30 GMT. What you are seeing is live until UK market close(I assume) so when it opens again you will see a gap up or down from the previous evenings fx and US price changes. I don't know how their ETF is cut off.
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I think Meta is responsible for a lot of their gains. I don't know how much they hold percentage wise but the stock is up 16% YTD! -for Jim that is 28 days
. BTW, they report tomorrow and as always, the market reaction is a big unknown. I do think they will report very good numbers-exceeding expectations. You don't comms $65B to capex unless your'e making a lot of money. -
I think Meta is responsible for a lot of their gains. I don't know how much they hold percentage wise but the stock is up 16% YTD! -for Jim that is 28 days
. BTW, they report tomorrow and as always, the market reaction is a big unknown. I do think they will report very good numbers-exceeding expectations. You don't comms $65B to capex unless your'e making a lot of money.@Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
the stock is up 16% YTD! -for Jim that is 28 days
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I am more than happy to discuss Fundsmith-we don't compete with them because our point of difference is that clients have access to the people who directly influence the decisions surrounding their investments and operationally, where possible we do our best to meet their needs one on one, even if its a quick turn around to any comms.
When you say jumped 'today', I assume you are looking at the ETF? As you know they hold Meta, GOOG and MSFT, ball up today nicely. There is little similarity between FS and Tech/Lifestyle. And just stating a fact, both of our portfolio's had returned significantly greater returns over the last several years.
Real time Tech is up about 2.5%. But remember, fx is volatile at the moment and we take a cut off at 11.30 GMT. What you are seeing is live until UK market close(I assume) so when it opens again you will see a gap up or down from the previous evenings fx and US price changes. I don't know how their ETF is cut off.
@Adam-Kay said in Busy couple of weeks on results front:
I am more than happy to discuss Fundsmith-we don't compete with them because our point of difference is that clients have access to the people who directly influence the decisions surrounding their investments and operationally, where possible we do our best to meet their needs one on one, even if its a quick turn around to any comms.
When you say jumped 'today', I assume you are looking at the ETF? As you know they hold Meta, GOOG and MSFT, ball up today nicely. There is little similarity between FS and Tech/Lifestyle. And just stating a fact, both of our portfolio's had returned significantly greater returns over the last several years.
Real time Tech is up about 2.5%. But remember, fx is volatile at the moment and we take a cut off at 11.30 GMT. What you are seeing is live until UK market close(I assume) so when it opens again you will see a gap up or down from the previous evenings fx and US price changes. I don't know how their ETF is cut off.
Thanks Adam. I don't know what an ETF is but the Fundsmith fund I mention is the bread-and-butter one which is available as an ISA or a GIA. They have a cut-off at 12.0pm every day which I think is when they take their values, and they publish them on their website at 2.30pm.
Yes, IMTech and PHE have both out-paced FS over the last 10 years (and comfortably over the last 3). There's a reason I've been shuffling funds from one to the other!
That's an interesting comment about META. I noticed that you added META to IMTech a few months back.
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Hi O,
Yes FS owned meta a while before we did. An insight into the process. We didn’t like it up to 6 months before we bought it, maybe a bit longer-would need to check my notes. Big change with Apple privacy opt in. A big deal back 2-3 years. I know the stock so well I don’t even need to check. It lost maybe 40% of its value. Meta fundamentally changed maybe 2 years ago but for us it was too expensive at the time. We loved the company fundamentals but it was too expensive. It was $560 going into q3 24 and they blew away earnings but said ‘we are investing 30b in ai’ the stock tanked to 450. Ok
We jumped in. The take away is, a good investor must be willing to change their mind-avoid bias. ‘It’s a dog-always a dog’. Avoid that mind-set. Be patient. This market will serve investors great opportunities regularly. Case in point ‘today’.
Last rule us never time the market-however we did time that acquisition to pefection
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Deepseek has been accused of distillation of Open AI models. This is a process where they train their model(the student) on the Teacher model(Open AI). So it's nothing more than mimicking open AI-not very clever at all! Big surprise, China start-up is lying. And it looks like the US will ban the App.
It also struck me as odd that Deepseek is run by a hedge fund. I wonder whether they profited from the flash-crash in some US stocks.
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Further update, Microsoft has implemented a formal investigation into Deepseeks unauthorised use of Open AI data. The US government has banned employees and anyone in the Navy from downloading the App.
As DT would say, Deepseek is 'fake news'.
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What's crazy is so many people believe this utter nonsense.As if Sam Altman got schooled by some kids on a laptop :). It didn't pass the sniff test and we called it as such. You simply can not do what they claimed without a massive GPU cluster but if you have the trained model(stolen) then you can mimic it using very little power
It goes a long way to explain why the stock market can do 'dumb' at times. It's human nature. Fear, Greed and over confidence all appear at different times. And the market is its play ground.
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As always Adam great insights and keeping us all up to date with the latest news
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Agreed. 'everyone' is now a trader and news is prolific, coupled with news agencies racing to be the first to publish, fact checking is poor and emotive click bait stories are the order of the day. Various media outlets are also used to promulgate completely made up false information, aimed to trigger selling and a profit motive for someone on the other side of the trade.
How many articles have you seen comparing Nvidia to Cisco. The sole comparison being an overlapped share price graph. People buy into this nonsense.
To improve your odds you have to spend a lot of time reading/consuming information and following the crumbs. If Jensen Huang says he's going to do X-ok. That's credible because he has a long history of doing just that. He has integrity. But if TSMC says they're also building a new factory to support that venture that's added support, then SK Hynix builds a new factory to supply part of the system. Getting warmer. Then MSFT/Meta up their capex.... Right there, the totality of the evidence weighs heavily and you invest with a much greater degree of confidence.
So when Jim Cramer starts yapping, you just ignore it. You filter out the low grade noise and focus in on the credible information.
But to do this you have to put the time in, 1000's of hours and that might cover just 2-3 stocks. So when someone flippantly suggests 'you just got lucky', i'd suggest the harder and smarter you work the luckier you get.
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I thought i'd bring any further Micron chat here, rather then clog up the rebalancing thread.
I wanted to add some context around the value of HBM(memory). Whilst difficult to nail down precise numbers on price. We believe AMD is paying around $110/GB.
A GB200 NVL72 rack. (72 GPU +36 Grace CPU) will need 30 Terra bytes of HBM. $330K in HBM for one rack! And Meta's new 2 GW DC will need something in the order of 20,000 racks. Big numbers.
Data transfer bandwidth is up to 16TB/s. In 1 second it could transfer the data from 16 1TB hard drives. Just staggering.
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Great day for Tech and Lifestyleyesterday-and no it wasn't driven by FX(which was around 48 bps). Tech +2.16%/IML 1.44%.
Cobens Tech is +7.8% YTD
Cobens Lifestyle +5.30% YTD
Cobens Equity +3.12% YTD -
Everyone holding the Tech portfolio should have received an email regarding the holding change.
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Twilio just reported, tumbling 10% on an average report with elevated valuationa-not good enough given the material reversion over the past 4 months. We sold it 2 weeks ago. Investing in Micron. Refer to the relevant thread .
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Morning,
Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:
Tech +12.7%
IML +6.7%
IMOP GG +4.23%
Index 100 +3.89%
Equity + 2.94%Fundsmith +4.32%
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SMCI will file any day now. Maybe Thursday-I say that because they won't file on a Friday. I have no doubts either way. And I am also highly confident the 10-k and 10-q(s) will be clean and unadjusted.
Nvidia are due to report in 1 week on the 26th. This of course will set the tone across the entire market and is the most important earnings in a very long time. It's very difficult to predict what they will have to say but one thing we do know. Blackwell production is in full swing-it will be the fastest ramp in their history. In my opinion the Q1 guide is far more important than the Q4 actual result. Expectations for Q4 are $38B and it's almost certain that will exceed this number. However with Blackwell supply being completely a guess it's impossible to know-no one does.
If the past repeats, we would expect Q1(guide) to be Q4 'actual' +$2B. I think this time will be different. I expect a guide of at least +$6B ahead of Q4-in fact my view is that Q4 actual+Q1 will get close to $100B in revenue. Q4 Gross margins will come in at around 73% and improve throughout 2025 as Blackwell yields naturally improve.
Looking fwd to updates on Blackwell Ultra which will be named B300 and perhaps some news on timing of Rubin(Blackwell Next). I read yesterday that Elliott Management (Paul Singer) has gone short Nvidia-good luck with that.
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Morning,
Some scores on the doors as at 18 Feb, all YTD net of all fees:
Tech +12.7%
IML +6.7%
IMOP GG +4.23%
Index 100 +3.89%
Equity + 2.94%Fundsmith +4.32%
