General News
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News on inflation- imagine the tsunami if it had been 0.00001% higher
Happy FridayThe U.S. Consumer Price Index crept up 0.2% M/M in January, a cooler pace than the +0.3% consensus and slowing from +0.3% in December, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
On a Y/Y basis, that amounts to a 2.4% increase in January, also lower than the +2.5% consensus and +2.7% in December.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% M/M, in line with the +0.3% consensus and slightly hotter than the +0.2% pace in December. On a Y/Y basis, that comes to 2.5%, in line with consensus and down from 2.6% in December.
Overall, the numbers indicate that inflation appears to be edging closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
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For anyone interested, here is an interview with the Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei. It discusses AI diffusion and the time line to AGI-a lot sooner than you think (1-2 years away) 'a country of geniuses in the DC'. Fascinating. Do we have enough tech
What he is saying supports the conclusions/ideas we have discussed very recently, that the hyperscalers know a break through is imminent and they're stepping on the gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1E9IZfvGMA
version on X. https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/2022357801276690455?s=20
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It's Presidents' Day today-markets in teh US will be closed, reopening, Tuesday. Still, the news will be flowing.
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Hopefully those Presidents can spend their day off giving the markets a damned good talking to. Those numbers have been sliding in the wrong direction recently.
ETA: Apologies if this sounds grumpy. It's because it's grumpy. It's Monday morning and we all know what Oscar Wilde said about mornings.
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I think given the broader market we are doing well and if we ignore what the score board has to say(this month-although it looks fine to me) im the happiest in some time as to the execution of our bigger holdings. And what I mean by that is, how the companies are operating and making progress. I'm not aware of any tech portfolios which are positive in 2026 with the exception of ours.
What would you prefer. The hypothetical, stocks go on a 15% run in 4 weeks when the fundamentals don't support it(too fast, limited basis), or tread water all the while multiples contract and the fundamentals improve. One scenario suggests short term exuberance and the other long term growth. I believe we are squarely in the latter camp.
I don't make predictions generally but 2026 is an inflexion point. The daily/monthly moves don't matter, it's their worth when you get to your destination that matters. And that isn't some frivolous platitude. History, our history has supported that.
You only need to look at some of ARK funds and those of other very new entrants to see 'weeeee....oops'.
Of course past performance is no indication of future returns.
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I think given the broader market we are doing well and if we ignore what the score board has to say(this month-although it looks fine to me) im the happiest in some time as to the execution of our bigger holdings. And what I mean by that is, how the companies are operating and making progress. I'm not aware of any tech portfolios which are positive in 2026 with the exception of ours.
What would you prefer. The hypothetical, stocks go on a 15% run in 4 weeks when the fundamentals don't support it(too fast, limited basis), or tread water all the while multiples contract and the fundamentals improve. One scenario suggests short term exuberance and the other long term growth. I believe we are squarely in the latter camp.
I don't make predictions generally but 2026 is an inflexion point. The daily/monthly moves don't matter, it's their worth when you get to your destination that matters. And that isn't some frivolous platitude. History, our history has supported that.
You only need to look at some of ARK funds and those of other very new entrants to see 'weeeee....oops'.
Of course past performance is no indication of future returns.
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Think about this fact.
If markets were perfectly and instantly accurate about the future, it would be nearly impossible to consistently outperform them. But markets are driven by human behaviour, and humans are emotional, biased, impatient, overconfident, and sometimes irrational.
That’s where opportunity comes from.
And using MU as an example, I believe they will earn $150 in the next 21 months(not 24) and even if it's only $100 it is completely illogical that stock holders are willing to sell at $411 today. Emotion at work. That is why taking a myopic view, 'well it's up 300% in 12 months =sell' is completely the wrong move without first determining why imo. The why is they got it completely wrong.
Mutiples do not stay this low for long. We are watching developments closely and yes it's a focus because when management say the company is performing at its best in almost 50 years, opportunities like this warranty the investment in DD because the fly-wheel potential returns are worth it.
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LAM Research CEO , a direct KLAC competitor quoted as saying yesterday......
Rampant AI demand for memory is fueling a growing chip crisis
“We stand at the cusp of something that is bigger than anything we’ve faced before,” Tim Archer, CEO of chip equipment supplier Lam Research Corp., said at a chip conference in Seoul last week. “What is ahead of us between now and the end of this decade, in terms of demand, is bigger than anything we’ve seen in the past, and, in fact, will overwhelm all other sources of demand.”
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Palo Alto reported tonight. It's a good business but over valued imo. We sold it in Feb 25 in the 190s for one simple reason. It wasn't generating the growth its multiples suggested, i.e it looked very expensive. You are paying today 45X earnings for a 15% growth rate(act 3!). Why hold PEGs over 2 when there are others at half the price and lower, other things being equal. On this one important metric to put that into perspective. If Nvidia had these multiples it would be trading at over $1,000 and MU would be $2,000+. If fact we used some of the PANW proceeds to buy MU. PANW down 15%, MU up 340% since.
Nvidia moves up after hours as Meta signs a multi year deal to further integrate additional Nvidia systems within its ecosystem. One week tomorrow...earnings and the guide!
