Oracle (ORCL)
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worth a watch-Ellison explaining the F1 AI race. And you have to hand it to him-still working all hours and driven at 81 years young coupled with being the wealthiest man on the planet
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yes it is. Having signed +300B ish new contracts. And the CFO said:
we expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years."
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further comments...Oracle $ORCL CEO Safra Catz: "Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars."
If this was the Daily Mail it would also say 'Catz made $108,282,333 in total compensation last year.
-all Oracle numbers are big! -
Oracle is on the move again(up) based on rumours it will run the US operations of Tik-Tok. According to DT (Trump) 'a deal has been done'. The parties to said deal have yet to comment.
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Oracle is raising $50B for data centre expansion, but not only for OpenAI.
"Oracle said we should expect that this money will go toward data centres for TikTok, AMD, Elon Musk's xAI and Nvidia..."
Recent comments from Jensen Haung about limiting its investment in OpenAI. This isn't a slow down. Rather, recalling the prior $100B announcement I recall Altman announced a deal with AMD(within days) which was clearly a slap in the face and dirty trick imo. My take away from the latest pushback is Jensens way of flexing their dominant position (we have all the money and the chips so play nice). From the Wanderers 'don't X with the
WongsHuangs'It would appear Nvidia is cosying up to XAi
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What a great film …..
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I expect Jensen to come out swinging during their next earnings call, scheduled for Web Feb 25 (3 weeks tomorrow). He is very conscious of the stock price action or inaction and I'm confident he will address that with openness, honesty and integrity. I expect some very big numbers and his comments will focus on what they are seeing (insatiable demand) plus China is a new addition.
The market is very fickle but very quick to change sentiment and what you have seen is a flat line range bound scenario where money gets moved into other plays, always chasing that quick buck. When Nvidia moves it does so very quickly and this quarter+guide is the perfect time imo. Blackwell is mature, Hopper is still in demand and Rubin (Vera Rubin) is in full production(scaling).
Four months ago Jensen said they had $500B in orders 'for the next 18 months'. He's talking about data centre not the entire business. I wouldn't be surprised if he raises this number as my numbers suggest closer to 700B total over the next 18 months.
This reported Q(Q4), I think they'll earn very close to $40B net. I can't see why they won't add in some China H200(Q1 guide), how much is unknown. They have orders for 10-12B min but will they ship it all in Q1. They have the stock. No one knows. They have plenty of time (Feb-April). Conservatively I think they will manage the usual +$10B expansion QoQ and +$XB from china, i.e Actual Q4+$10+X. And then guide back $5B. **I think the guide will be somewhere in the range $75B+ range leaving scope to beat this materially (80s). I'd be surprised if they left China out because they aren't reporting for another 3 weeks.
We have to bear in mind they are very conservative and don't ever want to bank on something and end up missing. I believe they could generate $80+B next Q but you won't ever see a guide that high-too risky. I also think they will earn close to $45B next quarter.
Whilst China demand is massive, initial orders will trickle in 2-3B Q1 and scale from there.